A deep dive into the 2022-23 Atlanta Hawks schedule

If you’re new here (welcome), it’s that time of the year again: the sixth annual schedule deep-dive here at Peachtree Hoops where we look at the Atlanta Hawks’ 2022-23 schedule in a greater detail and have a chat about the schedule, looking at each month individually — home games, road games, projected winning percentages of opponents, etc. I’ll also attempt to predict the Hawks’ record after each month and later we can all laugh at how wrong I was.

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The doldrums of the NBA Summer seem to drag on forever, but with the NBA releasing its schedule for the upcoming season here in mid-August, it helps connect everyone to the new season just that little bit and plans all across the league can be formulated, be it for Christmas Day, MLK Jr. Day, or simply fans figuring what games they’d like to see both home and on the road.

For reference, here’s last years schedule breakdown (which is funny to look at knowing what we know now).

Let’s not waste any time and hop into the shortened month of October:

Total games: 7

Home games: 3

Road games: 4

Back-to-backs: 1

Longest road trip: 4 games

Longest homestand: 3 games

Average projected opponent winning percentage (via DraftKings projections): 41.7%

A very handsome start for the Hawks in theory here. A lot of winnable games early on to get the confidence rolling, including the home opener against the Houston Rockets which kicks off an opening three-game homestand for the Hawks with fellow Southeast rivals Orlando and Charlotte completing the stand.

The Hawks then, unusually, go to Detroit to play two consecutive road games. Normally you’d see the ‘home-and-home’ sled where they’ll each play in each other’s building but not in this case: two road games in Detroit, where the Hawks should want to exact some revenge for the poor loss they had towards the end of last season, when Cade Cunningham went off in the fourth quarter.

If the start of the Hawks’ schedule was ‘a little too easy’ then Milwaukee on the road on the second night of a back-to-back and Toronto on the road will certainly provide a much better reflection as to what sort of team we might see the Hawks this season.

The four games on the road to end the month here are part of an overall five game road trip early in the season but, all-in-all, a lot of winnable games for the Hawks to get on the board.

Predicted record for October: 5-2

Let’s move on to November, where the schedule really begins to set in:

Total games: 15

Home games: 8

Road games: 7

Back-to-backs: 2

Longest road trip: 2 games

Longest homestand: 4 games

Average projected opponent winning percentage: 52.2%

If you thought October eased the Hawks into things without too much a real threat, then prepare to have your mind changed for when November rolls around.

The Hawks wrap up their five game road trip in New York that began at the end of October where the Knicks faithful is sure to give Trae Young an earful in what is sure to be a spicy encounter, even more so if a Donovan Mitchell-Knicks trade has materialized by then.

From November 7th the Hawks begin a brutal stretch where they face off against the Milwaukee Bucks again, a home-and-home with the Philadelphia 76ers — the first of which comes on the heels of a back-to-back with the Utah Jazz and finishes a four-game homestand — a road contest in Milwaukee, a home tilt against last year’s Eastern Conference champions in the form of the Boston Celtics (broadcast on ESPN) before wrapping up a two-game homestand against the Toronto Raptors.

Yikes.

The schedule makes up for it somewhat more favorable contests against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Hawks will welcome former Hawk Kevin Huerter when the Sacramento Kings roll into Atlanta on November 23rd before heading back on the road to finish their season-series with the Houston Rockets.

A few tough fixtures to end the month with the Hawks looking to exact some revenge against the Miami Heat for last season’s playoff defeat before the third meeting of the month between the Hawks and Sixers takes place (two of which will be broadcast on NBA TV), and wrapping up with a contest against the Orlando Magic.

A pretty tough November but one the Hawks can put themselves on the map in the East if they find some success against the likes of Philly, Milwaukee and Miami. Just two back-to-backs will help alleviate the stress somewhat but it’s possible November could dictate the Hawks’ season. If things begin to go poorly, expect John Collins’ name to return to the trading block...

Predicted record for November: 9-6

Predicted record overall: 14-8

Moving onto December:

Total games: 14

Home games: 8

Road games: 6

Back-to-backs: 2

Longest road trip: 3 games

Longest homestand: 3 games

Average projected opponent winning percentage: 37.7%

A home contest against the Denver Nuggets to open the month is just about as tough as it gets for the Hawks — on paper — for December. Only the Grizzlies on the road and, potentially, the Nets on the road and Lakers at home provide the Hawks with a situation they arguably should lose on paper (but who even knows what shape those two teams will be in come December, or come the start of the season in Brooklyn’s case). The Knicks game in MSG on December 7th should, again, be rowdy and it will be broadcast on ESPN.

The month of December is largely littered with teams projected to be in deep lottery situations and the Hawks need to strike to make up for what could be a tougher November. Just two back-to-backs, a three game road trip, a three game homestand and a nice break between the Pistons and Pacers game towards the end of the month — as well as a stretch of five home games in six games to make up for the five road games in six to begin the month — should see the Hawks ready to head into 2023 on the right foot.

Predicted record for December: 10-4

Predicted record overall: 24-12

Heading into the new year:

Total games: 15

Home games: 5

Road games: 10

Back-to-backs: 2

Longest road trip: 4 games

Longest homestand: 2 games

Average projected opponent winning percentage: 50%

The Hawks will finally hit the West Coast as the begin 2023 on the road, beginning in Golden State and ending the Los Angeles duo to begin a road-heavy January where 10 of their 15 games will be on the road — tough games too.

When the Hawks return home, the Bucks will greet them before heading back out on the road again in Indiana and Toronto. Next comes Atlanta’s MLK Jr. Day fixture against the Miami Heat, live on TNT, before a difficult tilt against the Mavericks on the road. The end of the month presents some winnable games but this will be a tough month for the Hawks as the season begins to take its toll.

Staying just above water would be a solid month here.

Predicted record for January: 6-9

Predicted record overall: 30-21

Moving into February:

Total games: 11

Home games: 6

Road games: 5

Back-to-backs: 1

Longest road trip: 4 games

Longest homestand: 4 games

Average projected opponent winning percentage: 50%

Another Western Conference road trip to begin the month for the Hawks, including last season’s best team in the Phoenix Suns, and possibly the worst back-to-back you can have in this league in Utah and Denver, wrapping up with what should be an entertaining fixture on TNT with the New Orleans Pelicans.

The schedule after this is mostly homeward leaning both prior and post All-Star break. Though the Hawks will square off against the Suns twice, there’s entertaining games in the form of the Knicks and Nets, with some winnable games such as San Antonio.

To finish the shortened month of February, the Hawks will finally face division rivals Washington on TNT (an odd choice to have on TNT but alas...) with former Hawk Delon Wright set to return to State Farm Arena.

A pretty brutal start to the month but room to recover.

Predicted record for February: 5-6

Predicted record overall: 35-27

Moving into March:

Total games: 15

Home games: 8

Road games: 7

Back-to-backs: 4

Longest road trip: 4 games

Longest homestand: 3 games

Average projected opponent winning percentage: 50%

A more heavy month than the Hawks have been used to this season, with a whopping (in comparison) four back-to-backs and a four game road trip with two road stints in both Miami and Washington (not to mention the one in Detroit to begin the season.

Things don’t get a ton easier at home, with difficult tilts against the Memphis Grizzlies, the Golden State Warriors and the Boston Celtics to come — that latter duo of games sandwiched with a visit from the Minnesota Timberwolves for the first time this season — who the Hawks will also visit in March.

New Hawks guard Dejounte Murray will return to San Antonio on the 19th and time will tell how many headlines he makes from now until then...

While the beginning of the month is a tough one, there are a number of winnable spots here in theory for the Hawks to make up for a potentially tough January and February, and with many teams in this stage of the season in tank mode, there’s a few more victories to be had I think.

Predicted record for March: 9-6

Predicted record overall: 44-33

Lastly, to April:

Total games: 5

Home games: 3

Road games: 2

Back-to-backs: 1

Longest road trip: 1 game

Longest homestand: 1 game

Average projected opponent winning percentage: 56.7%

Just the five games to end the regular season and while there are some tough teams here, the Hawks should in theory have more than enough to play for while a team like the Boston Celtics/Sixers may have a seed locked up and elect to rest some players.

Predicted record for April: 3-2

Predicted record overall: 47-35

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So, there we have it.

I think the Hawks’ schedule is very kind to be honest compared to past years, especially with back-to-backs and rest.

I do think the Hawks will have to strike hot in October and December because the rest of their schedule is pretty difficult and they’ll need to use a strong to help weather the storm. The end of the season (March and April) I think is particularly difficult for them. In fact I think their only reprieve on the schedule in 2023 is around the All-Star break...other than that it’s a pretty tough going for the Hawks. I still back them for the over on their 46.5 line though (just).

With the calendar drop, we’re one step closer to the new season, a season where the Atlanta Hawks will want to right the wrongs and bumps that meant their campaign was doomed to finish below their lofty expectations.

Until next time...