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Atlanta Hawks 2019 NBA Draft Lottery odds

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Let’s look at the official math.

NBA: Lottery Draft Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

The 2019 NBA Draft is coming and the Atlanta Hawks will be in the mix in a big way. Not only will Travis Schlenk and company have their own first round selection (guaranteed to land in the top ten), but the Hawks also own a trio of intriguing second-round selections. Beyond that, there is even more interest in the upcoming NBA Draft Lottery than there would be under normal circumstances, simply because the Hawks are owed a top-five protected pick from the Dallas Mavericks as part of the swap involving Trae Young and Luka Doncic.

To that end, there are a number of things to monitor in advance of May 14 and, in this space, we’ll provide a handy guide to the math involved with the lottery proceedings.

First, here are the odds in play for Atlanta’s own first round pick and where it might land after the ping-pong balls bounce.

  • No. 1 pick - 10.5 percent
  • No. 2 pick - 10.54 percent
  • No. 3 pick - 10.56 percent
  • No. 4 pick - 10.53 percent
  • No. 5 pick - 2.22 percent
  • No. 6 pick - 19.61 percent
  • No. 7 pick - 26.75 percent
  • No. 8 pick - 8.68 percent
  • No. 9 pick - 0.62 percent

For a bit more clarity, here are the combined odds for Atlanta’s own pick, broken down by cumulative draft slot.

  • Top 2 pick - 21.04 percent
  • Top 3 pick - 31.595 percent
  • Top 4 pick - 42.12 percent
  • Top 5 pick - 44.34 percent
  • Top 6 pick - 63.95 percent
  • Top 7 pick - 90.696 percent
  • Top 8 pick - 99.38 percent

Finally, here are some exotics on the Hawks’ pick, if you’d like to know some additional math in play.

  • No. 2 or No. 3 pick - 21.095 percent
  • No. 2 through No. 4 pick - 31.62 percent
  • No. 2 through No. 5 pick - 33.84 percent
  • No. 3 or No. 4 pick - 21.08 percent
  • No. 3 through No. 5 pick - 23.3 percent
  • No. 4 or No. 5 pick - 12.745 percent
  • No. 5 pick or worse - 57.877 percent
  • No. 6 pick or worse - 55.66 percent
  • No. 7 pick or worse - 36.049 percent

With that out of the way, the Mavericks have a chance to jump into the lottery (the top four spots are up for grabs in the lottery on May 14) and, if they do so, the pick owed to Atlanta will roll over to 2020, where it would again be top-five protected.

Here are the chances that the Hawks will acquire the pick from Dallas in 2019.

  • Yes - 73.8 percent
  • No - 26.2 percent

After a tiebreaker between the Mavericks, Pelicans and Grizzlies was executed on Friday, Apr. 12, the absolute ceiling for the Dallas pick (should it convey) was established as No. 9 overall.

Here are the odds for the exact landing spot of the Dallas pick, in the event that Atlanta does, in fact, acquire it in 2019.

  • 9th - 46.4 percent
  • 10th - 24.3 percent
  • 11th - 2.9 percent
  • 12th - 0.1 percent

Note: There is greater than zero chance of the pick falling at No. 13 overall, but less than 0.1 percent, as it would require four teams below them to jump up into the top four of the draft, which is incredibly unlikely.

Stay tuned for full coverage of the 2019 NBA Draft and much more.