clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Projection systems weigh in with consensus on Atlanta Hawks

New, comments

What do the numbers expect from the Hawks after the All-Star break?

NBA: Denver Nuggets at Atlanta Hawks Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

The Atlanta Hawks posted a 32-24 record before the All-Star break and that was good for fifth place in the Eastern Conference. With that said, Atlanta’s mark was accumulated despite being outscored by opponents for the season (-0.4 net rating per 100 possessions) and that forecasts a bit of potential regression. To that end, three projection systems have weighed in on what to expect from the Hawks after the All-Star break and, in a weird twist, all three reached the same conclusion.

The good folks at TeamRankings project the Hawks to finish with a 45-37 record and in fifth place in the Eastern Conference.

The good folks at FiveThirtyEight project the Hawks to finish with a 45-37 record and in fifth place in the Eastern Conference.

The good folks at NumberFire project the Hawks to finish with a 45-37 record and in fifth place in the Eastern Conference.

Sensing a trend here?

The trio does not forecast an identical order of finish for the teams ahead of the Hawks — Boston, Cleveland, Toronto and Washington — but the fact remains that there is a consensus building in the numbers. Simple math indicates that Atlanta would need to post a 13-13 record after the break to reach the 45-win mark and that number, in itself, shouldn’t come as a surprise.

Given that the Hawks essentially boast a net rating of a .500 team (or slightly below), projecting a .500 finish seems reasonable, especially if the team “stands pat” at the trade deadline. Throw in the fact that Atlanta’s schedule, which ranks within the five easiest in every major statistical listing of strength, becomes significantly more difficult in March and the combination makes a great deal of sense.

Can the Atlanta Hawks finish with better than a 45-37 record? Absolutely. Can they finish with worse than a 45-37 record? Absolutely. These numbers should be used to inform and not as gospel by any means, but it is a window into what the trends would lead you to believe. Do with it what you will.