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Disclaimer: Author is a Liberal Arts graduate of the University of Florida and thereby cautions all to check his math, monitor his theories and most of all give him a break.
(All salaries per Hoopsworld and salary cap explanations from CBAFAQ.com)
With the announcements of the agreements of Paul Millsap and DeMarre Carroll to join the Atlanta Hawks, questions abound about the Hawks cap space and what do these signings mean?
Let's start out with the current guaranteed contract count. This will not include the agreed upon deals with Millsap and Carroll.
BASIC CAP FIGURING SCENARIO:
GUARANTEED CONTRACTS
Al Horford: 12.0M
Kyle Korver: 5.4M (assumed starting point of reported 4 year, 24 million dollar deal)
Lou Williams: 5.22M
John Jenkins: 1.258M
Jared Cunningham: 1.208M
ROOKIE HOLDS:
Lucas Nogueira: 1.4M
Dennis Schroeder: 1.3M
NON-GUARANTEED DEALS:
DeShawn Stevenson: 2.24M
Mike Scott: 800K
Shelvin Mack: 900K
Mike Muscala: ~500K (based on Mike Scott 2012-13)
INCOMPLETE ROSTER HOLDS (needed to fill salary slots):
1 spot = 490K
For those 12 slots, the cap hit is 32.726M.
The cap is ~58.5M estimated -- won't be official until July 10th.
So it looks, from the appearance of the cap, that the Hawks are well underneath the cap, right?
Here come the holds
ROSTER CAP HOLDS:
Jeff Teague: 6M
Teague is a restricted free agent with a qualifying offer of 4.3M. His cap hold, however is 6M until he either signs the QO or signs an offer sheet with another team or signs a contract outright with the Hawks.
As none of those scenarios have occurred, we'll keep the cap hold at 6M. Teague hold takes the place of the incomplete roster hold and now makes the Hawks cap hit 38.2M
Let's look at the whole roster with Teague in place:
Al Horford: 12.0M
Kyle Korver: 5.4M (assumed starting point of reported 4 year, 24 million dollar deal)
Lou Williams: 5.22M
John Jenkins: 1.258M
Jared Cunningham: 1.208M
Lucas Nogueira: 1.4M
Dennis Schroeder: 1.3M
DeShawn Stevenson: 2.24M
Mike Scott: 800K
Shelvin Mack: 900K
Mike Muscala: ~500K (based on Mike Scott 2012-13)
Jeff Teague: 6M
OK, so 38.2M is still well under 58.5M, so the Hawks are still in the clear, right?
Time for the unrestricted free agent cap holds.
These are the cap holds in place to protect the Hawks so they can go over the cap to sign their free agents. These rights are called Bird Rights. To prevent a loophole to be worked where team would sign outside free agents right up until the last penny and then sign all their free agents, these holds were put into effect to close that loophole.
These holds, like the cap hold for Jeff Teague above, are in place until the Hawks sign this FA, another team signs them, or the Hawks renounce those Bird Rights, taking the cap hold away but also removing the ability to go over the cap to re-sign them without using an exception or remaining under the cap.
UNRESTRICTED FREE AGENT CAP HOLDS:
Josh Smith: 16.4M
Devin Harris: 12.75M
Zaza Pachulia: 7.9M
Johan Petro: 6.66M
Dahntay Jones: 5.5M
Ivan Johnson: 1.25M
Anthony Tolliver: 800K
The total amount of those cap holds is a whopping 51.26M, so you can see that the Hawks would have to do some renouncing as the total cap number for the Hawks, with all contracts and holds now adds up to 89.46M, well over the 58.5M cap by over 30M. Remember this does NOT include the Paul Millsap/DeMarre Carroll agreements, which will add another 11M to the pile.
So let's start at 89.46M. We know that Petro, Jones and Tolliver do not fit the plans moving forward.
So let's recalculate:
89.46 subtract (6.6M+5.5M+.8) = 76.56M
Ok, so that's a little better, but you see that we're still a far way from getting under the cap to accommodate Millsap/Carroll.
Moving on, Devin Harris' number is quite high, so you can renounce him at 12.75M and recalculate:
76.56 - 12.75 = 63.81M
Hey, hey! Getting closer. Let's recap where we are:
Al Horford: 12.0M
Kyle Korver: 5.4M (assumed starting point of reported 4 year, 24 million dollar deal)
Lou Williams: 5.22M
John Jenkins: 1.258M
Jared Cunningham: 1.208M
Lucas Nogueira: 1.4M
Dennis Schroeder: 1.3M
DeShawn Stevenson: 2.24M
Mike Scott: 800K
Shelvin Mack: 900K
Mike Muscala: ~500K (based on Mike Scott 2012-13)
Jeff Teague: 6M
UNRESTRICTED FREE AGENT CAP HOLDS:
Josh Smith: 16.4M
Zaza Pachulia: 7.9M
Ivan Johnson: 1.25M
Al Horford: 12.0M
Paul Millsap: 9M
Kyle Korver: 5.4M (assumed starting point of reported 4 year, 24 million dollar deal)
Lou Williams: 5.22M
DeMarre Carroll: 2.5M
John Jenkins: 1.258M
Jared Cunningham: 1.208M
Lucas Nogueira: 1.4M
Dennis Schroeder: 1.3M
DeShawn Stevenson: 2.24M
Mike Scott: 800K
Shelvin Mack: 900K
Mike Muscala: ~500K (based on Mike Scott 2012-13)
Jeff Teague: 6M
What about signing a player like Nikola Pekovic?
Pekovic, a restricted free agent himself, is a top player whose offer could start at 13M. In this scenario, the Hawks can only start around 9M, which is where Portland was when looking at Spurs restricted free agent center Tiago Splitter and Pekovic.
To get more room in this scenario, the Hawks would have to renounce Jeff Teague, claim that 6M in cap space to add to the 9M, and they would have enough to make a max offer for Pekovic.
Here is what that would look like:
Nikola Pekovic: ~13M
Al Horford: 12.0M
Paul Millsap: 9M
Kyle Korver: 5.4M (assumed starting point of reported 4 year, 24 million dollar deal)
Lou Williams: 5.22M
DeMarre Carroll: 2.5M
John Jenkins: 1.258M
Jared Cunningham: 1.208M
Lucas Nogueira: 1.4M
Dennis Schroeder: 1.3M
DeShawn Stevenson: 2.24M
Mike Scott: 800K
Shelvin Mack: 900K
Mike Muscala: ~500K (based on Mike Scott 2012-13)
This would equal 56.726M, less than 2M under the cap.
OTHER SCENARIOS:
The Asik Maneuver
Al Horford: 12.0M
Omer Asik: 8.37M
Kyle Korver: 5.4M (assumed starting point of reported 4 year, 24 million dollar deal)
Lou Williams: 5.22M
John Jenkins: 1.258M
Jared Cunningham: 1.208M
Lucas Nogueira: 1.4M
Dennis Schroeder: 1.3M
DeShawn Stevenson: 2.24M
Mike Scott: 800K
Shelvin Mack: 900K
Mike Muscala: ~500K (based on Mike Scott 2012-13)
Jeff Teague: 6M
UNRESTRICTED FREE AGENT CAP HOLDS:
Zaza Pachulia: 7.9M
Ivan Johnson: 1.25M
What if the Rockets added Jeremy Lin?
Al Horford: 12.0M
Paul Millsap: 9M
Omer Asik: 8.37M
Jeremy Lin: 8.37M
Kyle Korver: 5.4M (assumed starting point of reported 4 year, 24 million dollar deal)
Lou Williams: 5.22M
DaMarre Carroll: 2.5M
John Jenkins: 1.258M
Jared Cunningham: 1.208M
Lucas Nogueira: 1.4M
Dennis Schroeder: 1.3M
Mike Scott: 800K
Mike Muscala: ~500K (based on Mike Scott 2012-13)
That would be 14 players @ 57.436M, just under the cap.
EXCEPTIONS:
From the CBAFAQ -- Please read it to understand each of the different exceptions --
If a team is below the cap, then its Disabled Player, Bi-Annual, Mid-Level (either the Taxpayer or Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level, whichever applies to the team) and/or trade exceptions are added to their team salary, and the league treats the team as though they are over the cap1. This is to prevent a loophole, in a manner similar to free agent amounts (see question number 38). A team can't act like it's under the cap and sign free agents using cap room, and then use their Disabled Player, Bi-Annual, Mid-Level and/or trade exceptions. Consequently, the exceptions are added to their team salary (putting the team over the cap) if the team is under the cap and adding the exceptions puts them over the cap. If a team is already over the cap, then the exceptions are not added to their team salary. There would be no point in doing so, since there is no cap room for signing free agents.
So being under the cap does not necessarily mean a team has room to sign free agents. For example, assume the cap is $58 million, and a team has $51.5 million committed to salaries. They also have a Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level exception for $5 million and a trade exception for $5.5 million. Even though their salaries put them $6.5 million under the cap, their exceptions also count toward their team salary, increasing their total to $62 million, or $4 million over the cap. So the team actually has no cap room to sign free agents, and instead must use its exceptions to sign players.
Teams have the option to renounce their exceptions in order to reclaim their cap room. So in the example above, if the team renounced their Traded Player and Mid-Level exceptions, then the $10.5 million is taken off their team salary, which then totals $51.5 million, leaving them with $6.5 million of cap room which then can be used to sign free agent(s).
OTHER CONSIDERATIONS:
The Hawks could save 1.4M if Lucas Nogueira plays overseas this year due to a clause where the Hawks can send a letter guaranteeing Nogueira would not play in the NBA next year and this money would immediately go onto the cap.