FanPost

The Data Supports the Anti-Tanking Point of View

In the March 31st, 2016 edition of the Journal of Sports Economics, Akira Motomura, Kelsey Roberts, Daniel Leeds, and Michael Leeds published a study that was done to determine whether or not building through the draft in the NBA was a good idea. This article is behind a paywall,.

The results of this study shows that indeed, building through the draft is not a good idea. The conclusion of this study shows that recent high draft picks do not help and often reduce improvement of the team. If you have an additional pick between 4 and 10, you can expect to lose between 6 and 9 additional games three years later. The study also shows that picks in the top 3 slots in the draft have little to no impact on team performance.

To quote the researchers,

"Overall, having more picks in the Top 17 slots of the draft does not help and tends to be associated with less improvement."

The interesting thing that the study also notes is that some general managers are simply better at selecting players than others. For example, they determined that RC Buford's ability to evaluate and select players for San Antonio has contributed an additional 23-29 wins a season for the Spurs.

Another thing the researchers found is that some organizations simply squeeze more out of the talent they have than other organizations. They attribute this to player development.

The best way to win long term is to develop a culture that does not try to lose. This is the big point I have hit on. Once you intentionally lose games or make moves to ensure that you lose games in order to get a high draft pick, you start to develop a culture of losing. It is very hard to dig out of that culture of losing as well. How many top 10 picks did the Hawks have in a row between 2000-2007? Out of all those picks, only one ended up being part of a winning culture in Atlanta.

So, where are the Hawks at?

I think the Hawks, at this point, have shown a very good ability when it comes to player development. When you look at what they have done to the careers of DeMarre Carroll, Kent Bazemore, Jeff Teague, and even Paul Millsap, you see that this organization has the coaches and player development assistants that know what they are doing.

With the way they have identified that the Carrolls, Bazemores, and Millsaps fit well with this team and have the requisite talent to be successful, it suggests that the general manager that is currently in charge of the scouting process could be a net win for the Hawks.

What the Hawks are trying to develop is a strong organization, as the people who are calling the shots came from strong organizations who are run well. If you start to intentionally lose games, you destroy what you have built up.

So, now that we have established that tanking does not work and building through the draft is not the way to win long term in the NBA, we need to identify the reason for this. My premise is that AAU basketball is destroying the quality of basketball in the US. The style of play in AAU basketball is horrible for actual skill development. It highlights the players' individual ability with little regard to the ability to play within a team structure. This is something Gregg Popovich and RC Buford identified long ago before it got really bad, and this is why you see the Spurs draft more international talent over the years.

As a result, what you have are more and more players declaring for the NBA draft after their freshman seasons when they are clearly not ready to do so from a skill standpoint and a basketball IQ standpoint. Teams are tanking their seasons and relying on these underdeveloped players, and the majority of them never learn to play as a part of the team. When these guys prove that they don't really help by year three, you see a continual spiral of losing and picking high draft picks. At the same time, you see organizations like San Antonio that values skill level and team play just continue winning.

So, the bottom line is this. The Hawks should not try to move pieces for draft assets in order to "build for the future", essentially tanking for the future. They should continue to try to win and put themselves into a position to win. They also should not overvalue the draft. While I think they got two potential contributors this year, and I think you will continue to see Atlanta draft contributors due to their scouting excellence, I also feel that if they think a player on another team is undervalued on that team, they can use picks to acquire those players. Much like Tim Hardaway Jr, who I feel will take a significant step up in his second system year in Atlanta.

A FanPost expresses the opinion of the community member who wrote it and not that of the blog management.