FanPost

WSJ and Deng's stats suggest he's not a good buy.

http://wagesofwins.com/nba-players-age-like-milk/

Age and WS/per 48 for Deng

25-26 = .149 (standard)

26-27 = .132 (11% decline from last to this year)

27-28 = .105 (20% decline from last yr to this yr)

28-29 = .098 (10% decline from last year to this year)

If Deng has only the standard decline per WSJ (a decline he has exceeded each of the last 3 years). 11% decline from 29-30 yoa results in a .087 WS/48, 17% decline from age 30-31 results in a .072 WS, 22% decline from age 31-32 results in .056 WS, and a 35% decline from age 32-33 results in .036 WS.

In short,

2014-15 Deng should produce .087 WS/48

2015-16 Deng should produce .072 WS/48

2016-2017 Deng should produce .056 WS/48

2017-2018 Deng should produce .036 WS/48

For Comparison...

Demarre Carroll's WS/per 48 = .132 last year and .119 this year

Chandler Parson's WS/per 48 = .121 and .131 2 and 1 year ago.

Marvin Williams per 48 WS in his BEST year = .156, current year .084 in Utah

So regardless, the decline for Deng has started and may be sharper than projected given his mid to late 20s decline has been shaper. CURRENTLY, Deng is NOT as productive as DMC as measured by "win shares".

We can smile on this deal or series of deals all we want or defer judgement, but there are some concerning stats here.

A FanPost expresses the opinion of the community member who wrote it and not that of the blog management.

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