Honestly Corner's 5 Truths: Vol. 14

by Hawk Str8Talk on Jan 31, 2012 10:03 AM EST

In previous episodes of HS8T, we spread such truths as Horford's injury won't have any 'getting to the playoff impact'; Ivan Johnson's job saving ability; why Jason Collins shouldn't start; and why Larry Drew needs a technical...so, it's time for mo' TRUTHS!!! Read the disclaimer and then...let's go

Disclaimer: As always, all criticisms come after blaming the Atlanta Spirit Group first, management second, and then coaches and players last. Those criticisms come through the prism of winning championships (or the things that result in championship team building).

Truth 1. Marvin Williams just might be the non-Teague X Factor.

Listen, we've all had our Marvin Williams sucks moment. Whether it was relative to the greatness that is Deron Williams or Chris Paul, relative to his ability to sit in the background of every game, or relative to his lack of finishing touch around the rim - we've all been upset at Marvin Williams (see missed alley oop dunk vs. the Hornets as example #1). But let's just keep it real - maybe it really was an injury that caused Marvin's regression last year. Anyone who is getting pulled for Damien Wilkins and seeing the production from his position increase significantly cannot be that valuable and no, Marvin was not valuable last year. Coming into this season, it was widely believed that like most of the 'core' - the growth could only come from a better bench and Jeff Teague. Well, Marvin's touch from 3, ability to get to the line, and his rebounding have been markedly better. Should this Marvin be at full tilt when a healthy Horford joins the team - maybe the calls for Marvin to become a super sub will be forever retracted and maybe, just maybe the ceiling for this team can be raised. Speaking of ceiling...

Truth 2. The Hawks have raised their ceiling from guaranteed 2nd round loss to likely 2nd round loss.

First, I'd like to see what we do in the event that Al Horford cannot come back for the playoffs and whether we prepare (appropriately) for the future by making a move (bye, bye Kirk Hinrich), but I'll just be honest - this team has a variability that if the team plays at its highest level and that includes the poor decision making and FT shooting of Josh Smith - this team actually finally has a potential that can be built upon. There is a lot to be happy about regarding these Hawks. Tops is the development of Jeff Teague (still boggles my mind what the coaching staff was watching for 2 seasons in practice), but less obvious is the fact that if healthy, the Hawks don't have to hit on every cylinder to be successful. Every one of the starting five with Horford has the ability to put up a 20 spot. T-Mc can summon his past every 5 games or so. V-Rad can hit 4 3s in bench time. Willie Green inexplicably has found a soft spot in my heart by channeling his Jamal/Flip-ness for the veteran minimum price tag we should have been paying Jamal/Flip. Ivan has brought some toughness and is the crunch time fill-in for Josh Smith when we need free throws to be knocked down. Zaza has shown that he is a capable big man and can be counted on when his minutes are not jerked around by the coach who doesn't like him. We haven't even talked about Kirk and Jannero Pargo (a very capable 5th guard for the vet minimum). This is nothing to sneeze at people. There's true depth there. And we can even get rid of Stackhouse and/or Collins to get players who are jettisoned at the trade deadline or who are waived. Simply put, we have reason to believe that the Hawks can take advantage of an injury to the Heat or Bulls OR even just playing lights out in a way that we've never seen our All Star caliber talent perform in the postseason. So, let's not write them off for a real playoff run yet, but why haven't I made the turn..

Truth 3. The Hawks record vs. .500 and over teams is still cause for concern.

So, my pessimism about the Hawks in encapsulated in this one thing (non-Larry Drew category): we can't beat good teams consistently. Last I checked, you have to defeat the best teams 4 out of 7 times to advance. Right now, there are 4 good to great teams in the East - the Pacers, Sixers, Heat, and Bulls. The Magic and Celtics could get mentally and physically up to that level, but for now - lots of reasons say that the Magic and Celtics run is over, but these other teams require you to beat them 4 times in ways where we may be as talented or less talented. To beat teams that are as good or better than you, you have to execute, your best players have to perform, and you have to have mental toughness (oh, and the coach has to not get outcoached). So far, to the order of a 3-6 record, we can't beat good teams. We've lost to the Sixers, Bulls, Pacers, Heat, Rockets, and Spurs. Now, we should have won 2 of those games (Bulls and Heat), but the fact that we didn't win those games is part of the problem. To turn the corner, you must consistently beat the good teams in the league. Anything else turns this into...

Truth 4. The method is different, but the season's outcome is pretty much the same.

So, I'm getting a little more excited about the season and I've certainly gotten to the point that DESPITE the Al Horford injury - I'm ready to revise upward my prediction for the Hawks. It's possible for the Hawks to have a 3 seed and a 66% to 70% winning percentage if everything breaks right (and nothing else breaks wrong). So, let's keep it real - the Hawks have been beating up on the worst teams in the league for 3 years running now. That's what we do. We dominate the teams (and sometimes luck into a W or 2) who are bad. That's why they are bad. The Pistons being the Pistons allowed us to win that game in the same way that the Hawks being the Hawks allowed the Heat and Bulls not be swept by us so far this season. So, why should I believe that this season is the same. The vets and the playing style (more defensive and penetrating) still haven't pushed us over that final hump of beating GOOD teams consistently. Until I see that, it's hard to say much more can happen than any other season...this leads me to truth #5....

Truth 5. Fans and bloggers need to quit crying about national attention about our start.

Hey, fans - here's a little secret that you haven't gotten clued into. The Hawks deserve all the disrespect they've gotten the last few years. Charles Barkley, SI, USA Today, PTI, etc all have reason to NOT believe in the Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks when in the biggest spotlights have failed miserably. In the playoffs, we barely beat the Big One's Heat, the Bogut-less Bucks, and were swept soundly for 2 years. We beat a really awful Magic team and then had a good game in the playoffs vs. Bulls. How many ESPN/TNT games have we flubbed? How well did we do vs. the Heat without their stars? I say this not to tell you that your team sucks. I don't believe that to be the case, but if you are a casual observer, then why would you believe that things have changed. We still have Rick Sund, Larry Drew, the Atlanta Spirit, and the same leadership running this ship, so let's wait until the end of the year and the playoffs before you starting crying 'disrespect'. The Hawks are being afforded exactly what their past says they should receive. Let's channel that energy into requiring the team and its management to give us the assets to change how the rest of the country feels about us. That means Teague must keep ballin', that means Joe needs to be that All Star, that means Josh Smith needs to MAKE the All Star game, and we can continue to push the Heat for the division title and I promise you - we'll get all the publicity and attention we desire and it'll be for the right reason. Right now, we want accolades without doing anything different from what we've done in the past. We've done the great regular season, beat up on the scrubs thing before...let's sweep a team, upset a contender, etc before we ask for that awards that should come with achievement.

Next week, we'll discuss - whether we should make a trade or wait for Al Horford? Until then, that's this week's 5 Truths....agree or disagree if you must, but if it's the Honesty Corner, then it can't be lies. See you in the comments...

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5 of the 6 losses were on the road...

It is hard to beat good teams on the road.

by Rufus1 on Jan 31, 2012 10:29 AM EST reply actions

But it happens if you're better. But "guaranteed 2nd round loss"? damn.

* Jeff Teague * Joe Johnson* Josh Smith * Troy Murphy * Al Horford *
* Kirk Hinrich * Tracy McGrady * Marvin Williams * Ivan/Vlad * Zaza Pachulia *
----
* {#40 Pick Perimeter F Jon Leuer is better than Marvin Williams and Hinrich cost us the pick}

by PointGuardSlim on Jan 31, 2012 11:06 AM EST up reply actions

Look at the Home records of the best teams in the league...

The Hawks have lost 1 game…If we played those teams at home, what would our record be?

by Rufus1 on Jan 31, 2012 11:25 AM EST up reply actions

It is better to lose on the road to good team or at home...

Also the Hawks have the 4th best winning % in the entire NBA….We have been an elite team the past 3 years, but pessimism of Hawks fans distorts that fact.

by Rufus1 on Jan 31, 2012 11:33 AM EST up reply actions

Not if you...

consider anything that happened in the postseason. It’s not pessimism – it’s that the hawks have always beaten teams that it had more talent than. So, I don’t consider them elite. You could say the same about Utah or Portland or Denver or Phoenix in many years, but no one actually thought they were going to be factors in contending for a NBA title. If that’s not possible, you’re not elite. The Hawks have not be elite. They’ve been good. Elite is like 4-5 teams. So, the argument that the losses were on the road matter very little. You’re right – it’s hard to win on the road…if you suck or if you are average. The best teams are not going on the road and saying – oh, snap – it’s the road and we can’t win here. Same for the playoffs – elite teams aren’t struggling to beat the D. Wade only Heat in 7 games or the Bogut-less Bucks.. So, no pessimism – just the reality…and guess what – the great thing is that the Hawks have a chance to change that this season. Let’s see it happen.

Hawk Str8Talk

by Hawk Str8Talk on Jan 31, 2012 1:54 PM EST up reply actions

Elite is realative to the teams in your conf. or league...

If you are a top 4 in your conf. or top 8 in your league…YOU ARE ELITE!…The rest doesn’t matter.

Being able to win a title based is on the match-up or the competition in your bracket, is different. The Hawks are the 3rd best team in the East, but the 2nd best team in the West.(based on record) We play in the toughest divison in the NBA and the top 6 teams in the East maybe better than 2nd ranked team in the West.

“They’ve been good. Elite is like 4-5 teams”-str8 talk
What 4-5 teams last year were the Elite?…Dallas and Memphis don’t count because nobody picked them. How about the Lakers who got swept?

Are you telling me Boston was better than the Hawks last year or the Grizzles?..No.

The NBA playoffs are about talent, coaching and match-ups…..We have the talent, we just haven’t had the coaching or the match-ups.(Please don’t put LD in Woody’s coaching box.)

We are Elite!
We have a top 4 record in the league.
We have a top 5 defense(Efficiency rating)
We have a top 10 offense(Efficiency rating)

All this while missing our Allstar center(who may return)

by Rufus1 on Jan 31, 2012 2:37 PM EST up reply actions

relative^^

by Rufus1 on Jan 31, 2012 2:38 PM EST up reply actions

Uh..sorry

Your argument doesn’t hold – last year, the Bulls, Heat, Thunder, and Mavs were elite. Doesn’t matter who picked anyone. That’s it…the Hawks were not elite. This stuff about records and ratings mean nothing when it’s not apples to apples – we’ve played 9 games vs. good teams and we’ve lost 6 of them. We won the other 13 games against teams that won’t be in the playoffs, so relax the elite stuff.

Hawk Str8Talk

by Hawk Str8Talk on Feb 1, 2012 1:04 AM EST up reply actions

He included the caveat that we have missed Horford. We are 1 player away from being elite. Dont know if Al's that player though.

by PointGuardSlim on Feb 1, 2012 9:40 AM EST up reply actions

I don't believe

we are if Horford is that guy, but I would also say that it’s still a shaky foundation to begin with. Basically, the entire bench save Zaza is a free agent at the end of the year. if we do well because of an amazing bench, no way they all come back for the vet minimum, so we still have work to do on this season and the makeup of this team.

Hawk Str8Talk

by Hawk Str8Talk on Feb 1, 2012 9:48 AM EST up reply actions

Please tell me the definition of Elite...

Because for the Hawks it always seems to change….What makes those teams Elite?

“we’ve played 9 games vs. good teams and we’ve lost 6 of them.”-Str8Talk

5 of the 6 were on the road…So, having a winning record on the road against good teams is now the standard of Elite?
The Bulls and Heat have lost 5 games(some good teams, some bad) and both have lost to the Hawks…The Hawks destroyed the Bulls and held them to 76pts on their floor.

So when the we start beating the good teams at HOME and get our record to .500 against playoff teams, will we then be Elite or will the criteria change again.

FYI: 4of 5 Heat losses on the road/ 4of 5 Bulls losses are to good team.

by Rufus1 on Feb 1, 2012 10:33 AM EST up reply actions

Actually

you are focusing on the micro and not dealing with the macro. I always deal in the macro and my definition of elite is never changing. So, what’s elite – those teams beat winning teams. I don’t care if it’s the road or home. Those teams have been the Finals or have been close. So, for the regular season – we must defeat good teams consistently at an over .500 clip while continuing to dominate bad teams for me to give you regular season elite. To be really elite, you have to beat good teams in the postseason (and I don’t consider beating the Bucks, Magic, or Heat these past 3 years b/c none of those teams were good). So, we can’t prove our elitism until the postseason….I’m not a believer until I see us beat the Bulls or Heat 4 out of 7 games OR at least us pushing those teams to the brink where you have to see their greatness to defeat us vs. us just laying down as we have the last 3 seasons. Last time we raised our level with the lights on was Boston in ’08.

Hawk Str8Talk

by Hawk Str8Talk on Feb 1, 2012 4:14 PM EST up reply actions

You mean like when Bulls lost to the Heat in 5 games....

Based on that definition, beating the Hawks had no meaning…because we weren’t Elite. The Bulls struggled to beat the Pacers and the Hawks…Then lost in 5 games to the Heat……..Sounds like Elite to me.

This isn’t Woody’s Hawks…
We have a new coach, bench, PG and Marvin has a new back.

by Rufus1 on Feb 1, 2012 4:30 PM EST up reply actions

Uh

Let’s see, so if you’re one of the last 4 teams standing – you handled your biz. The Bulls struggled to beat the Pacers who played out of their minds. The Bulls didn’t really struggle to beat us. We lucked into one game – Josh Smith won the other. The only thing you can say about last year is that the Heat were that much better – doesn’t make either team not elite. So, again – you can spin it how you want to.

But I still have zero belief in Drew as some upgrade from Woody and certainly wouldn’t take him if I had the choice of about 15 other coaches in the league. So, when we have to match up at the end of the season and if the teams are equal – am I taking Drew over Thibs, Collins, Brooks, Rivers, Pop, Adelman, Carlisle, Spolestra – nope…

Hawk Str8Talk

by Hawk Str8Talk on Feb 2, 2012 1:26 AM EST up reply actions

Al is the difference...

With Al we will have one of the most athletic starting 5 in the league….Making our defense BETTER. You saw what Al and Josh did to the Bulls and Heat frontlines. No way can philly beat the Hawks with Horford in a series.

Remember: We are competing against the East and he is the 2nd or 3rd best center in the conf….Also, these are not Woody’s Hawks. These Hawks are being coached to win in the NBA, Woody was an AAU coach.

by Rufus1 on Feb 1, 2012 10:53 AM EST up reply actions

Well

you’re not going to win an argument with me by saying that Larry Drew as our coach is some sort of upgrade. As for what the Sixers can do, I’d be super careful about saying what another good team can’t do against us. I hate that I feel this way, but I don’t see Al as a difference maker for us in that way. He matters depth wise, but honestly – there hasn’t been a chasm of difference in what Horford has done as a starter and what Zaza has done as a starter this year. That is troubling…

Hawk Str8Talk

by Hawk Str8Talk on Feb 1, 2012 4:17 PM EST up reply actions

LD is a 2nd year coach...

Mistakes will happen, but Woody was the worst coach I have EVER SEEN outside the AAU circuit.
-———————————————————————————
A Team(Magic) wins 52 games, but lose to the Hawks, so now they are garbage….

Those playoff losses we his(Woody)….. LD’s teams won games in the 2nd round. They are even in the same conversation.

We will disagree, because I think this year the Hawks are Elite, LD is a solid coach and will prove it this season.

by Rufus1 on Feb 1, 2012 4:50 PM EST up reply actions

Yes

The Magic played absolutely TERRIBLE vs. us – I’ve written about it, but I’ll say it again – I give the Hawks some credit, but what happened in that playoff series is that those guys just went cold and it went to their heads. The Magic shot at historic playoff low levels for us to beat them in 6, so I don’t know what that says, but it does say to me that during that series – the Magic were garbage. They would have lost to the pacers, Sixers, and the Knicks as bad as they played. As for winning games in the second round, again – we agree on Woody, so winning those 2 games just makes him better than Woody…not solid or even decent.

So, you said it – we disagree. Nothing about what Drew does is above average to me. Maybe you can explain what he has done that says elite. Screw that 2nd year crap – he’s been on NBA benches for years. You either have it or you don’t. This isn’t the NFL. It’s not hard to coach NBA games – he’s coaching the team he was assistant for, so he didn’t have to win the locker room or figure out the strengths and weaknesses. Call me when we do some pick and rolls with Josh, when we get Josh off the perimeter, when we don’t sit our best players because they have 2 fouls, when he calls TOs to stop momentum, when he stops sitting our hot players when they are hot, when he stops playing games with Zaza, and so on and so on.

Hawk Str8Talk

by Hawk Str8Talk on Feb 2, 2012 1:32 AM EST up reply actions

Just cancelled my NBA Ticket.

We’re screwed.

Twitter: twitter.com/edgrohl Google+: Ed G

by Duff_Man on Jan 31, 2012 11:12 AM EST reply actions

I preferred the picture of Nicki

Ivan Johnson does not buy ground beef, he just takes a whole cow, runs it through his beard, and fully cooked hamburgers come out.

by Throw on Jan 31, 2012 11:15 AM EST reply actions

+1

by Ennis W on Jan 31, 2012 12:09 PM EST up reply actions

HEY!!!

y’all watch that – the ladies all have their talents and flavors…

Hawk Str8Talk

by Hawk Str8Talk on Jan 31, 2012 1:55 PM EST up reply actions

Im sorry but listen

she just gets my attention every time i go to a home game, and for that brief amount of time you had my attention just by putting her picture up. j/k

Ivan Johnson does not buy ground beef, he just takes a whole cow, runs it through his beard, and fully cooked hamburgers come out.

by Throw on Jan 31, 2012 2:07 PM EST up reply actions

Blake Griffin's dunks come off repetitive running pick and rolls. Why we never run that with Smith?

For all the comparisons Smith has not been put in that exact position to succeed as a finisher. We put him at the top of the key as a passer and as a pressure release to drive and create or more likely shoot jumpers.

Caron Butler
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LtpkPHEnLEs

Blake Griffin’s mosgov dunk, the perkins dunks, and most dunks come off a pick and roll where it is 2 on 2 on one side of the paint. and 3 other teammates and 2 other defenders are intentionally cleared out to the other side of the key so defenders cant help without an illegal defense call.
http://bit.ly/xQlmkz

Here’s where we run it with Josh Smith. The 2nd time he has to tell Marvin to clear out too the other side, that and the rarity of seeing this play makes me think its NOT part of our offense.

We see Teague and Joe run it with Smith. The Clippers run it sometimes and post up the switch for easy shot attempts. I’d like to see if we can run it for the finish or the switch.

But we have not been running easy points for Smith. Everything he’s had is high post where he is off the dribble or shooting.

#HonestyCorner

by PointGuardSlim on Jan 31, 2012 11:19 AM EST reply actions

^ "most of Blake's dunk" not most dunks

by PointGuardSlim on Jan 31, 2012 11:19 AM EST up reply actions

Marvin the X-Factor and the bench

Truth 1, How many years have we said that? Marvin the X-factor? I need to see him perform at a high level for 10 games before I am convinced of a shift in pattern

Truth 2, That bench is exceeding expectations, I don’t think any one could see that, as we had little time to see the team in exhibition season. Let the Jamal talk rest though, he did well by us while he was here. I think you should take on Sund and center talk now. I am not as optimistic as you, unless we get a center, to make the second round.

Truth 3, Required reading.

by ATLpaul on Jan 31, 2012 11:25 AM EST reply actions

Well

I did say that he MIGHT be it. Not he is it and you’ll never see it 10 games straight because he’s not the #1, 2, or 3rd option (Teague would be that), but I’m just saying that if he can continue contribute like this – maybe he’s the guy who changes how we feel about the team and can take over in times where Joe or Josh are off.

As for the second one, I agree – it’s way better than I expected, but also still has room for growth. That’s the positive. I won’t let the Jamal stuff rest because unlike you – I don’t agree that he did well by us. I believe that for what he provided – he was vastly overpaid. I’m always ready to take on Sund, but you probably won’t like what I have to say on it. Personally, unless he can pull off Kaman for Kirk – I’m not sure what else I want him to do. I don’t want another panic move – Sund hasn’t done well with panic moves (both Bibby trades were that). So, if it means we have to get draft picks, then I’m good with that. We can work on getting better next year. But I do believe this team without Horford can make the 2nd round. It’s possible. Not sure if it’s likely depending on the opponent, but it’s definitely possible as long as we aren’t playing the Heat or Bulls.

As you probably know, I think Horford can come back and even if he didn’t – I don’t think that Horford is so critical that we can’t beat all but the Bulls and Heat without him.

Hawk Str8Talk

by Hawk Str8Talk on Jan 31, 2012 2:02 PM EST up reply actions

I am not convinced Hawks can win vs. Pacers or Sixers in a series without Lion

I need to see us in at least a game more vs. each of those teams to be sure. I believe we are going to miss his scoring and that will impact us. Why?

Because they can slow JJ.
Pacers have Granger and Sixers have Iggy. Both are physical tall small forwards that will play good D against JJ. Unless we get scoring from some other source, I am not convinced we can win without Lion.

As for the big men, I have a real problem when Zaza and Smoove go to the bench now. IT is so bad that I don’t think we can allow Rad to come in because of his weakness in rebounding with the rest of the bench.

What do you mean with Panic? If I were Sund, if this is my job, I already get Bensen back for Stackhouse who is just doing nothing to help us. Then I would try every possible avenue to get a big man. What does he need for it not to be Panic? I mean our team was already small even before the season started. And he did nothing, just let the one big man he drafted go. Why is it Panic to make a move for a big man? In 3 years he has done nothing, other than draft useless big men. That is not called panic. That is called ignoring the need of the team to improve. Just paying lip service is not enough. He must make a move already
A panic move? How long does he need? It has been two weeks since Lion went down. He should be burning the phones down. Feb is here and we still don’t have a center to back Zaza up. No I don’t want to lose a first rounder, but all I hear from him is that he is content with how we are at. He needs to be knocking on every possible door.

by ATLpaul on Jan 31, 2012 2:54 PM EST up reply actions

Again

He can burn up the phones, but if you are 16-6 – you don’t need to jump at the first move that’s in front of you. Look, the Hawks will make the playoffs,so I agree with Rick Sund (words I never thought I’d write) if he’s say he’s content. He should be…as for the Pacers or Sixers – you’re right – we may not beat them. I’m just saying that those teams haven’t proved anything to say we can’t beat them. So, like I will continue to say – Al isn’t the star of this team…he’s good and I want him back and I’m assuming that he can get back by the playoffs. If that’s on track, I say don’t panic and give up anything more than Hinrich, Pargo, Stackhouse, and maybe V-Rad plus a 2nd rounder and if that yields us a big man of some rotational value – cool. If not, stand pat (well, except for trading Hinrich to the Lakers or something like that to get a 1st rounder). I don’t see one reason yet that Hinrich needs to stay on this team unless we cash in all our chips for a run for a championship.

Hawk Str8Talk

by Hawk Str8Talk on Feb 1, 2012 1:09 AM EST up reply actions

I will take McRoberts for Hinrich...

But I agree that we shoulds be patient.

by Rufus1 on Feb 1, 2012 11:00 AM EST up reply actions

whoa

THAT would be a panic move…no way we give up Hinrich for McRoberts. I’d rather a draft pick over that..

Hawk Str8Talk

by Hawk Str8Talk on Feb 1, 2012 4:18 PM EST up reply actions

Truth 2: The Bench is severely underrated.

The bench will never get the recognition it deserves looking at the standpoint from the NBA as a whole but for the Atlanta Hawks… It’s something that we’ve never had before since “The Core” has been together.

The biggest difference and addition these veterans give us is the game experience and intelligence they offer, especially Stackhouse and McGrady. You didn’t get that from Flip Murray, Speedy Claxton, Joe Smith, or Jamal Crawford. This added dimension should contribute to outsmarting the opponents. I mean, you can definitely see a difference with the way the bench operates. Add Ivan Johnson’s toughness, Zaza Pachulia’s intensity, Jannero Pargo’s/ Willie Green’s/ Vlad Radmonovic’s efficiency and scoring you have the most complete bench we’ve had in years.

Ron Artest = Ron (sm)Artest - He Is The Most Interesting Man In The World

by JoshChildressAfroIsCure4Cancer on Jan 31, 2012 1:49 PM EST reply actions

True

But Stackhouse can be made a coach if we need his intelligence

Hawk Str8Talk

by Hawk Str8Talk on Jan 31, 2012 2:03 PM EST up reply actions

I also agree that the Hawks don't deserve the respect from the media

because they haven’t earnt it with consistent performance. But I am glad the players are going out with a chip on their shoulder and trying to prove the critics wrong. If only he could do so during the nationally televised games.

Ivan Johnson - the new Xavier McDaniel

by Nique Fan on Jan 31, 2012 6:21 PM EST reply actions