Atlanta Hawks Playoff Probable Says Basketball-Reference

by Jason Walker on Jan 17, 2012 1:00 PM EST

It's a bit early, and the toughest part of the non-Al Horford schedule has yet to commence, but still it's good to see that our own preseason assessment regarding the regular season, considered optimistic, has been to this date exceeded.

Behold, the Basketball-Reference Playoff Probabilities Report!:

(waiting for your return)

Ok, so a couple of interesting items and a caveat.

First the caveat: It's only been 14 games. With the shortened training camp/offseason and teams struggling to adjust to new rotations and new coaches, this is precisely how the Hawks, who have maintained their rotational integrity for a while now, should have opened.

Now, the interesting: The Celtics, who have been mainstays atop the Eastern conference since the Garnett/Allen trades, are 10th. 10th! Hard to fathom the quick drop, but hold the celebrations, as Tom Ziller contextualizes, the C's are not done yet.

Also interesting: Cleveland in the playoffs! Byron Scott for COY!

Now about the Hawks:

Not only are the Hawks currently third in the East by this report, but they have a higher probability to win the division than do the Miami Heat and Orlando Magic. The Heat still edge the Hawks in probability of winning the East and the Championship, but interesting to see the Hawks ahead, even a fifth of the way into the season.

Also, the Hawks likely landing spot in terms of record is today 41-25. Mine and Kris' fearless win predictions, again considered to be optimistic at the time? 36 for me and 37 for Kris. Yahtzee!

Things will definitely change off these current projections and especially for the Hawks who will eventually pay the penalty of not having a key player in the lineup for months, but it's good to see that the Hawks, to this point, have indeed taken advantage of the situation that the shortened season presented to them.

For more on the Atlanta Hawks check out SB Nation Atlanta, follow Jason Walker and Kris Willis, along with Peachtree Hoops on Twitterand check out the Peachtree Hoops Facebook Fan Page.

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why do the sixers have a higher probability?

Atlanta will win a championship....someday

by maxxj3 on Jan 17, 2012 1:15 PM EST reply actions

Point differential, SOS, higher win percentage

Philly has something like a +15 avg point differential right now — they have simply crushed (bad) competition and haven’t had a let up

by dchawk on Jan 17, 2012 1:38 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, I was disappointed that you guys didn't believe the Hawks to be much more than a .500 team.

by jdewayneatl on Jan 17, 2012 1:37 PM EST reply actions

how much more do you want?

lots of unknowns to just say that a team that regressed last year is going to be much more than it was the year before.

Hawk Str8Talk

by Hawk Str8Talk on Jan 17, 2012 2:07 PM EST up reply actions

40 games.

The Hawks were on pace to win 50 games last year but mailed in the last games of the year. The year before that they Hawks won 53 games. In ’08 – ’09, the Hawks wond 47games. In a full 82 game season, 47 games is 57% games won, 50 games is 61% games won and nearly 64% games won for 53 games. In 09/09 the Hawks won

Although the Hawks failed to hit the mark last year, they are a 50 win team, that would amount to 40 games won (61%). So the team realistically could have been expected to win 36 games (55%) on the low end and 44 games (67%) on the high end.

by jdewayneatl on Jan 17, 2012 2:34 PM EST up reply actions

The difference is the bench.

We haven’t had a bench this deep as long as I can remember. People talk about the loss of Al Horford and how the Hawks weren’t a playoff team until he arrived, but I think it has more to do with the improving bench and pieces since he arrived. I mean check out the roster for the 06-07 season,( http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fantasy/nba/atlanta-hawks/team/roster/07/1/1), it is scary bad. The Hawks added Bibby and Horford in 07-08 and backed into the playoffs. The Hawks made their biggest move in 08-09 when they added Flip Murray and Maurice Evans to the bench, along with the core of Bibby, Joe, Josh, Marvin, and Al getting more comfortable the Hawks were the 4 seed. Then in 09-10 the Hawks added Joe Smith, Jeff Teague (although he never played), and Jamal Crawford. Jamal had a career year of the bench and the Hawks got the 3 seed. It was more of the same in 10-11, with the Hawks adding Josh Powell, Damien Wilkins, Kirk Hinrich, with Mo Evans and Jamal Crawford the Hawks got the 4 seed.

This years bench is going to allow the Hawks to be very successful. The defense is much improved and the roster is versatile. I’m sure the Hawks will try to add another big man at some point in the near future, but the Hawks core is still together (minus Al) and they now have improved PG play. I think the Hawks will still end up in the top 4 in the East. They have to much talent throughout the roster to just fall off the map.

by BravesFanScout on Jan 17, 2012 1:38 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

wow

well you just took everything I think of normally and put it into words

Ivan Johnson does not buy ground beef, he just takes a whole cow, runs it through his beard, and fully cooked hamburgers come out.

by Throw on Jan 17, 2012 2:03 PM EST up reply actions

if health holds

and pargo/green is no longer a part of the rotation when Hinrich returns

Hawk Str8Talk

by Hawk Str8Talk on Jan 17, 2012 2:08 PM EST up reply actions

I actually disagree on this point

I think Pargo and Green are adding value.

Green does shoot a lot, but seems able to score. As a backup to JJ he works.
Pargo as backup to Teague works.

There are multiple reasons why I say let’s not count on Captain Kirk.
Number 1, Teague is the most important player in current Hawks makeup. All due respect to my favorite players Lion (injured) & Smoove (All Star), Teague is the difference. He attacks fearlessly. I know you know that, but keeping Captain Kirk around, gives LD easy way out if Teague struggles, which is a given from time to time.

More importantly, Captain Kirk must be used to get us the center we want. Trade him to Lakers in a possible three way trade so that we get a center out of it. Or get Troy Murphy and Josh McRoberts for Captain Kirk.

Bottom line, don’t count on Captain Kirk coming back – instead add a center using Captain Kirk.

by ATLpaul on Jan 17, 2012 2:53 PM EST up reply actions

Hinrich could prove to be what puts the Hawks over the top, especially without Al.

Having a point guard duo of Teague and Hinrich would be serious. 48 minutes of Teague and Hinrich defense on opposing guards is a game changer. Kirk ability to create and hit shots off the bench is much more impacting on a game when you add in the defense he will bring. Something that was always a handicap for both Bibby and Jamal. And while Pargo is active defensively, Kirk is a much better defender.

A four guard rotation of Teague, Kirk, Willie Green, and JJ would be one of the best in the league.

by jdewayneatl on Jan 17, 2012 3:36 PM EST up reply actions

Face the music

Captain Kirk is gone after this year.

That is a fact given the ASG financial situation, and salary limitations.
Get something that is effective for the team, and longer lasting, as opposed to using Captain Kirk for just remainder of this year.

This is the same thinking that forced us to keep Jamal and lose him for effectively nothing.

If Captain Kirk is the difference between getting to EC finals and not, I say keep him. But I don’t see that happening.

I don’t disagree that Kirk’s D is great and he can make the open shot (assuming he can get back into playing shape for this year). But to me, what we need more, is a starting center not a four gaurd rotation with Kirk included for only next 2 months after he joins the team.

by ATLpaul on Jan 17, 2012 3:49 PM EST up reply actions

If the financial is the limitations...

then keeping Hinrich and letting his contract is much better than locking in future contract years. That’s why Jamal didn’t get an extension and ultimately wasn’t re-signed. Not signing Jamal worked out for the better because we got 4 players for the price of one.

And with Joe’s contract rising, Josh’s contract set to expire, and Teague’s restricted free agency looming, this is not the time to lock in contracts (especially if Horford would be back for the playoffs). I think initially everyone including ownership, management, coaches, players, and fans were immediately put into reactionary mode when the news came.

But as time allowed for the minds to clear, more pragmatic thinking to assess the actual damage replaces the initial panic. The Hawks just have to keep the course and let it play out to see exactly what the Hawks have going forward before a major decision is made.

by jdewayneatl on Jan 17, 2012 4:12 PM EST up reply actions

I have made this same argument.

Kris noted an article written by John Hollinger referring to the Hawks, with the same core of Joe, Josh, Marvin and Zaza, not winning games before Al arrived. It was totally off base and thoroughly misleading.

by jdewayneatl on Jan 17, 2012 3:41 PM EST up reply actions

The Hawks will make the playoffs...

And, hopefully, Horford will return at the end of the regular season.

As I’ve stated before, we don’t need to dominate the great teams, only the crappy ones, which we have done thus far, to make the playoffs.

If Horford doesn’t return at all, then I doubt we will get out of the first round. Who knows at that point? Maybe, we make a move along the way to strengthen our team (doubtful, but not impossible). Maybe, we gel as a team minus Horf and players step-up and improve in ways they wouldn’t have with Horford on the court.

I’m glad the Hawks have shown fight these past three games. Now, let’s beat a solid team.

GATA!

by Jman781 on Jan 17, 2012 1:49 PM EST reply actions

+1

I don’t understand any idea that we won’t make the playoffs barring an injury to Josh or Joe or Jeff. Even then – I think we’re in the fight, though I’d be in favor of just tanking it and getting a good player and letting the team come back stronger next year. That said – all this maybe we’re making the playoffs is crazy talk…this team is a playoff team and it’s not close.

Hawk Str8Talk

by Hawk Str8Talk on Jan 17, 2012 2:10 PM EST up reply actions

All this talk about ranking, and Hawks making playoffs is way pre-mature

We still don’t really know what this team is capable of.

Hawks are borderline playoff team. That is it. Nothing more, nothing less.

But in all reality, have to wait, go through the next three of the tough games, vs. Portland, Sixers, Spurs to get a better feel, and then really next month’s tough schedule.

I understand wanting to be all positive and happy and all, but hey, if it is a happy ending you all want to see, may I suggest watching a Disney movie? Reality is this team needs a center BAD. Collins/Zaza are not NBA starter material.

Instead of talking ranking and making playoffs, what about talk around getting a center of some type (free agent, possible trade, bring back Benson in place of Stackhouse/Sloan/…) to help this team? Can we add one post about that topic? Is there anything Sund doing to help the team? What are LD’s thoughts on that front? What are the options?

by ATLpaul on Jan 17, 2012 2:28 PM EST reply actions

I don't think that you are objectively assessing things.

The debate in Hawks land for the last 5 years is that Horford was playing out of position and that even with his presence, the Hawks needed a legit center (which the definition of has also been debated).

Subjectively, someone would argue that because Al doesn’t meet the measurement requirements, he could not adequately fill the role of a center in today’s NBA. Objectively, the center position has become the least productive and least domineering position in the league and that a player traditionally undersized for the position could prove to be the 2nd best center in the East and a top 5 center in the entire league.

Subjectively, you would argue that by losing our center Al, the Hawks can not compete at a high level. Objectively, the center position is the weakest position across the league and that the point guard position has a much greater impact on the success of a team.

The difference with or without Al is Jeff Teague. The Hawks are stronger at both ends of the floor at the point guard play than at anytime since Mookie Blaylock. And in contrast to Mookie’s era when centers dominated the league and point guards facilitated, point guards are dominating.

So objectively, we have lost a really good player at the weakest position but have gained a really good player at the strongest position on the floor.

by jdewayneatl on Jan 17, 2012 3:23 PM EST up reply actions

Let's use your words:

Objectively: You have lost an ALL STAR center

Objectively, you have gained a superior point guard to Bibby but no way an ALL STAR point guard.

Subjectively: You are saying Teague at his current form, makes up for loss of an ALL STAR center! Obviously I am not the only one taking that position, see below

http://nba-point-forward.si.com/2012/01/13/hawks-future-shaky-without-al-horford/

I never compared positions to each other.

Now all I said, is these rankings are pre-mature. And I added, we need to augment the team with a legit starting center. How is that not objective?

by ATLpaul on Jan 17, 2012 3:44 PM EST up reply actions

Objectively: Al would not be an All-Star power forward.

Al is the 2nd best center (All-Star center) because the center position is weak.

Subjectively: If the Hawks got a lesser talented but capable center and moved Al to PF, that would make the Hawks better.

Couldn’t the same be said about Josh? And yes, Teague right now can help make up for the loss of Al. But definitely the Hawks two other All-Stars, Joe and soon-to-be Josh, will have to do some lifting. And Teague will only get better. I keep saying that had he played and learned how to play last year, he would be playing at a higher level now.

by jdewayneatl on Jan 17, 2012 3:56 PM EST up reply actions

We objectively agree to disagree

Fact:-1 This team needs a starting level center.
Fact-2: The team can afford to lose Captain Kirk.

The above facts are true, both while Lion is out, and after he is back.

Starting line-up of Smoove and Lion and TBD-center, will be Lakers East.

Forget Marvin and Rad, they are bench material. Good bench material, but bench material, nevertheless

by ATLpaul on Jan 17, 2012 4:04 PM EST up reply actions

But if the Hawks needed a center before Al went down...

technically nothing has changed even with Al out because the Hawks still need a center. What’s the difference between now and then?

by jdewayneatl on Jan 17, 2012 4:21 PM EST up reply actions

It has become more urgent - you could say desperate

by ATLpaul on Jan 17, 2012 4:27 PM EST up reply actions

Horford was the little train engine that could, a $12 million bandaid on an axe-wound. Looked good and helped pad the win columns

by destroying low grade centers but come real teams. We would lose.

Its exacerbated now. Beat low grade teams, Lose to average teams, or better than average teams.

POR is an above average team and a loss is understandable.

* Hawks trade {Al Horford + protected 2nd rounder} for {Perimeter F Jon Leuer and C Andrew Bogut}

* Jeff Teague * Joe Johnson* Jon Leuer * Josh Smith * Andrew Bogut *

by PointGuardSlim on Jan 18, 2012 1:03 AM EST up reply actions

No you're not Lakers East. I live on the West and Josh Smith is like no forward that's ever played the triangle.

Horford is not Pau Gasol. “Lion” is average height and gets by on speed offensively. He’s awkward where Pau Gasol is… Why am I explaining this Pau Gasol is a Hall of Famer.

Josh Smith is a small power forward. You want to go big you need a big small forward. You don’t move Smith to small forward if he’s going to be pushed out of the post.

And pushed out of the post to the perimeter by average center and Horford who has zero post moves? We’ve gone over this before.

Larry Drew tried it and canned it. I’ve seen lineups where Woodson tried it and canned it.

* Hawks trade {Al Horford + protected 2nd rounder} for {Perimeter F Jon Leuer and C Andrew Bogut}

* Jeff Teague * Joe Johnson* Jon Leuer * Josh Smith * Andrew Bogut *

by PointGuardSlim on Jan 18, 2012 1:00 AM EST up reply actions

Power rankings on sports illustrated

Dropped us from 7 to 14 this week. On basis of the Horford injury alone. I hope the Hawks step it up in these next few games to prove to us and everyone for that matter, they can be a viable team without Horfy. But only time will tell how sorely missed he is.

If the Hawks win it all.........I will shave MY eyebrows.

by Hawk n the Ham on Jan 17, 2012 2:37 PM EST reply actions

I didn't know power rankings weighted for what the future holds.

Weekly power rankings are supposed to judge what a team did in the 7 days prior and weighted for the season-to-date as a whole. Regardless of what may happen in the future the Hawks were 3-1 and they are 10-4 overall.

by jdewayneatl on Jan 17, 2012 3:26 PM EST up reply actions

What you describe

Is the failing of power rankings. They suck because they tend to react to what teams have done in the prior seven days, but people think that’s how they’re supposed to work. What they really should do is tell you how good each team is at that present moment. You should always consider future results with power rankings-which team do you most expect to reel off 10 wins in a row at a given moment, all else being equal. I always considered them to be a way to attempt to project the final season standings, based on getting new information weekly.

If many people think they’re what you described, then that’s really even more worthless. The fact is that they tend to do that because they’re overreactive, which makes them pretty worthless anyway. If they were stringently applied by knowledgeable writers, they’d be a lot more interesting. I feel like, 5-6 years ago, that’s a bit more how they were done, and they seemed better for it. I haven’t cared about power rankings at all in 2-3 years now.

Braves will be fine. I'm not worried.

by Bronn on Sep 18, 2011 4:26 PM EDT

by Bronn on Jan 17, 2012 3:36 PM EST up reply actions

I disagree on one aspect of what say.

And that is that power rankings should not take into account what would happen in the future. It would be a prediction poll instead of a power ranking. Power ranking should coincide with standings but weighted for the most recent games played. Standings don’t take into account games not played and power rankings shouldn’t either. And also 7 days is a good snap shot of an NBA season and thus really is indicative of how a team is presently performing.

by jdewayneatl on Jan 17, 2012 3:48 PM EST up reply actions

These kind of things are always meaningless until mid-season at the earliest. That’s especially true for the Hawks given their easy early schedule especially since Al went down.

by redwards95 on Jan 17, 2012 3:26 PM EST reply actions