Grantland: How The Atlanta Hawks Should Utilize The Amnesty Provision
by Kris Willis on Sep 28, 2011 12:01 PM EDT
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Yesterday at Grantland.com, Bill Simmons and Jonathan Abrams talk about the Amnesty provision that will reportedly be included in the new CBA once it is finalized. According to the article, the clause would give teams the ability to pick one player that they could waive and that player's deal will then no longer be counted against the team's salary cap. The last time there was an amnesty provision teams only earned luxury tax relief. Any team that waives a player will still owe the full amount of their contract, however, it will no longer be a part of the team's salary cap calculation.
Simmons and Abrams give a team by team look at who each team should be targeting with the amnesty provision. Here is what they had to say about the Atlanta Hawks:
Abrams: Joe Johnson should happen ... but it won't. Even if the Hawks erased his contract off their salary cap (as well as that $24.9 million final season in 2016 when he will be 34 years old), he is still owed that money and might as well play for it. Instead, Atlanta can wiggle free from Marvin Williams' contract ($24.9 million through 2014).
Simmons: Agreed. You have to admire the Hawks: They compounded one of the worst NBA mistakes of this century (drafting Williams over Chris Paul) by giving Williams an indefensibly dumb contract extension just in case their fans didn't feel bad enough about it. I still like my Hedo/Redick-for-Johnson scenario more for them.
I think they do a good job of explaining why the Hawks won't decide to jettison Joe Johnson's large contract. They will owe him that money anyway and they aren't going to simply pay him that much money to go play for someone else. That leaves Marvin Williams as the only likely candidate for the provision but would leave the Hawks searching for a starting small forward unless they are ready to move Josh Smith there on a full time basis.
Taking a look around the southeast division, players that look like they might be in danger are Mike Miller from Miami, Gilbert Arenas or Hedo Turkoglu from Orlando, DeSagana Diop from Charlotte, and the original owner of the Joe Johnson contract Reshard Lewis in Washington.
Exit Question: If there is an amnesty provision in the new CBA then who should the Atlanta Hawks use it on and why?
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Should? Joe Johnson
for reasons of flexibility that are beyond obvious. But that implies a Cuban like multi-billionaire owner who wouldn’t blink at writing a $100+m check for someone to go play elsewhere better than the immediate replacement.
But we both recognize that no one is about to write Joe off for nothing, not with that much remaining on the deal, at least not without being assured that what you owe will be reduced by $10-15m per year on the next deals Joe signs with Chicago or New York or New Jersey, etc.
So unless that clause is in there, you gotta go with Marvin, don’t you? I’m already assuming the plan of an Al and Smoove 4/5 gets broken up within the next 12 months, allowing 1 or the other to take over the 4 spot while we reload around them, and a JJ/Jeff Teague backcourt (although personally, I’d like to see Joe transition to more minutes at the 3 while we add a role player until a young partner for Teague can be found, assuming Teague’s Chicago series is the long term player not a Jerome James flash in the pan). But it’s gotta be Marvin. You don’t cut Al or Josh, you trade one. You can’t cut Joe and give him $100m to play for someone else, especially since he still brings a lot of good and isn’t Allan Houston or Steve Smith yet (even if he will fall off a cliff like they did in 3 years as he’s 30 now, and both crumbled at 33). Everyone else is on small or expiring deals. So you’re left with two years of not good, but close to worth the money Zaza, or if last year is what you get, nowhere close to the money for Marvin. If you get 2 years ago Marvin, it might make sense to keep him. But last year, you cut him and the 3 remaining years. It doesn’t give you much room, but hopefully does once combined with a Smoove or Al trade. Until then, you’re looking at Teague, Hinrich, Joe, Smoove, Al, Zaza. Focus on cheap vets (of which the amnesty clause may put quite a few on the market) and upside kids (like Rolle and Sy) to round out the rest of the bench, with big needs at backup PG/SG, a SG or SF, and big men.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
How much do we really think the Smith/Horford combo will get split up?
I am not sure anymore especially given that once the CBA is finalized, there is going to be a really short time to prepare for the season to start. Is it possible that the new ownership takes a season to evaluate things first?
@Kris_Willis
In what time frame?
before this season begins, I’d put the odds at maybe 1/4 (or 25% chance) at most. But next off season, I’d raise it much, much higher. I don’t think it’s as much an evaluation issue as a short crunch time wise and unlikely ability to get a desired return for one of the two. Next off season I think it gets better, and personally I’d hope one or the other can bring back a top 5 pick in the 2012 draft.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
I highly doubt that Alex Meruelo wants to swallow $100 million as his first order of business as Hawks owner. Keep in mind that whoever gets amnestied still gets paid their contract; it just doesn’t count against the salary cap. Joe is the obvious answer, Marvin would be fine too, but it honestly wouldn’t surprise me to see the Hawks (and most other teams for that matter) not use the amnesty on anyone. If the teams are as cash-strapped as they say they are, the last thing they are going to want to do is eat sizable guaranteed contracts.
That is a very good point.
and is entirely possible. If this is the format for the amnesty clause, what do you think Orlando will do? Will they cut Arenas given his relationship with Otis Smith or would they go with Hedo?
@Kris_Willis
As said above, I think a lot depends on the specifics of the clause
if the amount owed on the amnestied deal can be off set by any subsequent signings (say Joe is dropped, and sings a 3 yr $45m deal with Chicago, well the $100m or so owed on the amnestied deal is now $55 – whatever Joe can get in year 4 after the Chicago contract expires). If that’s part of it, then I think the question of Who becomes very different for a lot of teams, and you’d see possibilities like Joe or a Chris Bosh become realistic possibilities. Otherwise, you’re looking at guys with decent but not too massive deals, and generally over $20m and under $40m owed and like you say, multiple teams won’t even use it.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
I have a feeling if that's true
many teams will get lawsuits
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
Marvin is the obvious answer
Joe is too valuable to let walk and then eat that huge salary. No way any owner in this league will make that mistake.
Marvin is the logical answer. Marvin is also the reason Sund should get fired immediately.
Does Simmons seriously think JJ for Hedo and Reddick??
I know he’s not a very good sports writer but that is ridiculous. I’d rather have Bob Rathbun and a current Dominique out there than Hedo Turkoglu
Johnson’s contract is too high but he is still undervalued by many analysts around the country. It would be beyond laughable if the Hawks even entertained that trade
by Sky Hawk on Sep 28, 2011 4:18 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
It's the Joe delimma
Ride it out vs. Trade him for flexibility to fix a flawed roster
Orlando is one of 5 reasonable trade destinations for Joe Johnson as they would eat his contract returning shorter deals if it meant improving their team short-term to keep Dwight Howard happy. Joe’s contract is potentially so bad that no deal is going to return much talent to go with the financial saving. It’ll have be a move for shorter bad contract and filler. Think Arenas or Hedo from Orlando, or Boozer and pieces from Chicago, Baron or Jamison from Cleveland, Lewis from Washington or my favorite Kamen and Gomes from the Clippers (Joe would have to play the 3). Boozer makes no sense for us and I doubt the Clippers invest that deeply. That leaves few deals.
I hated the Hedo/Redick idea when I read it but when you start crunching numbers it isn’t horrible financially (Arenas would be much worse). The problem really is how bad Hedo would fit here. I’d only want to do the deal if I could then use the clause on Hedo. If not Cleveland is the best trading partner for Joe.
BTW if you choose to ride out the contract of Joe then it is logical to see him sliding into the SF the last couple years of his deal. If you see that as a possibility then you probably want to focus on trading Josh Smith because unless he has a revelation in the next year then he’ll probably be hard to commit to when he becomes a free agent and you risk losing him for nothing.
I’m not sure anyone is truly worth using amnesty clause on unless there is a hard cap. I think Marvin is horribly overpaid, but still it’s a hell a large check to write for him to go away when he can do some things on the court. Just not $8M a year a worth.
He's entertaining the idea that Hawks are inept financially and trying to keep Dwight in Orlando,
NBA would be rigged imo if that happened
1958, the Hawks again advanced to the NBA Finals where they avenged their previous year's defeat against the Boston Celtics. Bob Pettit scored 50 points in Game 6 in front of a crowd of 10,218 in St. Louis. The victory gave the Hawks their first and only NBA Championship.
by PointGuardSlim on Oct 5, 2011 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
After reading and thinking about it....
Marvin should be the one we use the clause on. Marvin’s money can be used to find a swingman or two, and let that person and Joe flip between the 2 and the 3.
And Simmons should be strung and quartered for even thinking JJ for a shot Hedo and no-D Redick is even worth wasting brain synaspes conceiving
'Bama fan since birth, Niners Faithful & Hawks fan since '86, Braves fan since '90
It's the sport of kings, better than diamond rings....football.
Roll Tide Roll!
Go NIners!
It's not a basketball trade, it's a financial trade idea
And Redick plays D even hard, he’s just got limitations. It’s hard to criticize another player’s defense when Jamal Crawford plays here. Maybe Jamal gets a pass as an offensive specialist, but he is truly no D.
Backup SG???
This talk is petty imo. We don’t get respected as is. Now we’re talking of amnestying someone? For what? Who will we get if we amnesty someone?
Free Agents always try to make us overpay because we’re desperate to reach the next level.
6’8 swingmen aren’t as easy to come by as you think. And if they are then they probably shooters not makers.
What is Marvin’s role? Go out there and create like Jamal. But against guys your size. Well about 5 years have passed and it’s PRETTY clear that’s not his strength. And he’s better against a certain position/body frame.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYsMCvSGMV4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fQpAlTxi68A
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVslNUOpxTw
In 1957, the team advanced to the Finals, losing to the Boston Celtics in a double-overtime thriller in game seven. In 1958, the Hawks again advanced to the NBA Finals where they avenged their previous year's defeat against the Boston Celtics, winning the series 4-2. Bob Pettit scored 50 points in Game 6 in front of a crowd of 10,218 in St. Louis. The victory gave the Hawks their first and only NBA Championship.
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