Generous Amnesty Provision

by IWillPartyHard on Sep 23, 2011 2:35 PM EDT

Chris Sherridan is reporting that the new CBA will likely include a generous amnesty provision.

http://sheridanhoops.com/2011/09/22/nba-lockout-update-generous-amnesty-provision/

Now the question is, who would the Hawks use it on?

There are two obvious candidates, Joe Johnson and Marvin Williams. Both have onerous contracts that they have very little hope of performing up to. Can the Hawks afford to drop either of them for nothing in return, and would they want to?

I think the choice all depends on how the Hawks look at Joe Johnson going forward. Is he still the franchise player, the star? If not, then I think he is the obvious choice due to the massive size and length of his contract. Releasing Joe would give the team much needed financial flexibility going forward, and the ability to keep Josh Smith around, someone I find far more important to the future of the team than JJ.

Can the Hawks afford to lose Joe Johnson for nothing? I'm of the opinion that they can, mainly because I think JJ is un-tradeable with his current contract unless we were to take back some other crappy huge long term deal. So, losing him for nothing is the lesser of two evils. Now, what do they Hawks do about the SG position? One option is to start Captain Kirk at the 2. The other option is to sign a replacement. There are some good to decent SG who could be released with this amnesty provision, and they'll all probably be willing to sign on the cheap. Portland might release Brandon Roy, Detroit might release Rip Hamilton or Ben Gordon, Milwaukee might release Stephen Jackson, Orlando would release Arenas, Philadelphia might release Louis Williams, Phoenix may release Childress.

Now if the Hawks decide JJ is key to their future and they're happy with his contract, then Marvin becomes the next choice for the amnesty provision. The question of whether the Hawks can afford to lose Marvin for nothing is much easier than for JJ. Marvin played his way out of a starting slot at a position where we don't even have a capable backup. Similar to the situation above, there will be several good to decent SF released from other teams via the amnesty provision. Richard Jefferson and Corey Maggette both come to mind. Antawn Jamison will also likely be released and he can play some SF. Or we can just do what we did against Orlando and slide JSmoove over to the 3, play Al at the 4, and then start Zaza at the 5 (sorry Jason Collins).

If it was my choice, I would send JJ packing. I like him as a player, but he's already not playing up to the contract and his play will decline while his salary grows. Not to mention the new CBA could have a hard cap, and will at least have more serious penalties for exceeding the cap, which we are dangerously close to already. The Hawks desperately need some flexibility moving forward, and this would be a great way for the new owner to correct a past wrong and begin putting his stamp on the team.

One last thing to think about, this amnesty provision will require some real important decisions from the GM, and if Sund is not who the new owner wants going forward, he needs to start looking for a replacement sooner than later.

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With a reduced and hardened overall cap

it almost has to be JJ doesn’t it? Anyone else, and we’re struggling to find cap room until his deal expires.

http://sportsandgrits.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Sep 23, 2011 6:09 PM EDT reply actions

I dunno....

It depends on if current contracts are also retroactively reduced to fit within the new cap structure and some of the difference is made up through a signing bonus of sorts

'Bama fan since birth, Niners Faithful & Hawks fan since '86, Braves fan since '90

It's the sport of kings, better than diamond rings....football.
Roll Tide Roll!
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by ronniemac03 on Sep 23, 2011 9:36 PM EDT reply actions

it'd take a huge reduction

and I think it’d be easier to let Joe go and replace him while also addressing the team’s main needs (bench depth and a strong defensive C), than let Marvin go and figure out how to fit pieces in around Joe’s contract.

http://sportsandgrits.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Sep 24, 2011 8:10 AM EDT up reply actions

and who with a hard cap are you going to replace him with?

As we have pointed out time and time again it is easier said than done

I think the likely candidate would be Marvin but I am not sure what the format of these amnesty clauses will be. They may only provide salary cap relief and not get the team out of playing the player. Would the Atlanta Hawks pay over $80 million dollars to Joe Johnson and tell him to go away? I don’t see that as an option until we are much further into that contract.

@Kris_Willis

by Kris Willis on Sep 24, 2011 9:06 AM EDT up reply actions

And we agree there

this assumes the money owed can be negated by any subsequent signing (i’d think the owners would be adament about that being a clause in it, that the next contract reduces what’s owed in the amnestied contract). Financially, it is almost impossible to just cut Joe now with I’d think more than $80m, and if the deal is done now, it’d need to be over $100m still owed going in to the 2011-2012 season.

But on the much easier question of replacing him with? For one, there’s Joe himself. I’d like to think there’s enough good will between him and the organization and him and his teammates that we could bring him back under a much more cap friendly deal (especially if we’re still paying him $100+m). There’d be possibly several other wing scorers also cut in similar amnesty deals (Magette, Jackson, Roy, etc), and perhaps one of those works. Say you bring in Roy as the replacement on a 1 year, incentive laden deal, and get lucky with the last remaining healthy season his body has left (if that). There’s the argument I made last year, of going with lesser names in multitude as role players, adding a shooter (last year this was Morrow) and defensive specialist (last year’s Brewer) to fill those roles in tandem, while putting Marvin, Smoove, and Teague in to more prominent roles as scoring options and offensive focal points and hope one of them grow up fast since none have ever shown the ability to consistently fill that #1 role Joe does.

To be honest, I’m not as concerned with replacing Joe, as I’ve always said it’s much more about creating the flexibility so that a temporary step back in the short term can lead to a much healthier long term future. It’s sacrificing the next year or two to an extent in favor of a much better team in years 3-10/15 from now.

http://sportsandgrits.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Sep 24, 2011 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions

All the flexibility in the world doesn't guarantee a championship

and neither does grabbing the No. 1 pick but again that is the same discussion that we have had before. I don’t get the satisfaction of being good in 3 to 5 years when I want to be good the entire time. Is that possible? I am not completely sure but Atlanta went in the tank with the Steve Smith trade and it took nearly 10 years to climb back out. That in itself should back my point up.

@Kris_Willis

by Kris Willis on Sep 24, 2011 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions

No, you make good points...

but while flexibility doesn’t guarantee championships, it seems having Joe as your #1 option guarantees you won’t get any so it’s not like you lose anything.

http://sportsandgrits.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Sep 24, 2011 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions

But to sum in short...

I’m taking the easy way out of your question and sticking two amendments to the amnesty clause, that:
a) the amount owed under the contract amnestied is reduced by the amount due under any contract that players sign while the payments are due (so if Joe signs a 4 yr, $60m contract with Chicago what we owe is less that $60m)
and
b) players cut can be signed by their cutting team, so the Hawks could just replace Joe with Joe, and opening up a massive amount of cap space signing him to a small deal while still paying him the amnestied money.

And to be honest, that might be a helluva concession to make, as the players could open up a sizeable pool of money for other players to make without cutting in to currently owed money. It’d be a double dip for a second group of players, because the owners could have tons of cap space to spend on and you know they’d spend it.

http://sportsandgrits.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Sep 24, 2011 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions

This is complete speculation

but I don’t ever see the players signing on a CBA deal where a contract they signed last season will not yield them all of their money. Option b) was prohibited the first time there was an amnesty clause and I see no reason why that would be allowed this time. Option a) might very well be an option in the CBA but we don’t really know to this point. With that said I still don’t see new ownership coming in here and cutting anyone loose without taking a season to evaluate.

@Kris_Willis

by Kris Willis on Sep 24, 2011 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions

then you're reading a wrong or I'm saying it wrong

they still get all their money. It’s more that they don’t get a second contract above that, and just get paid that amount owed.

http://sportsandgrits.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Sep 24, 2011 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions

I re-read it and I understand what you are saying now

@Kris_Willis

by Kris Willis on Sep 24, 2011 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions

The problem with taking a season to evaluate

Is that you miss out on the amnesty provision, so if you take a season you’re stuck with him for the term of the contract, whether you want him at that point or not. Hence why we need a new GM in here who really knows what he’s doing before these tough decisions are made.
I just don’t see how the Hawks could pass on using the amnesty provision when it seems like without using it we will have to let JSmoove walk when his contract is up or enter luxury tax / hard cap territory. JSmoove is far more important for the future than JJ or Marvin.

by IWillPartyHard on Sep 26, 2011 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions

I honestly would let Josh walk

seeing that his game is regressing since shooting jumpshots is increasing

Atlanta will win a championship....someday

by maxxj3 on Sep 27, 2011 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Spread Offense + Showtime Size

So basically Joe can give Chicago a discount and we partially pay for D-Rose’s title.

What is that a reverse Ponzi?

nicknames are for bums.

Jeff Teague+Kirk Hinrich
Joe Johnson+Marvin Williams
Josh Smith+ Malcolm Thomas/Andrei Kirilenko($$$)/Tayshaun Prince (FA)

pretty elite if we let Smith in on the big picture. He loses the weight get a PF or C shooter and play him inside a spread offense. Teague is a monster in the spread as well.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_VmdeDbJ-o8

In 1957, the team advanced to the Finals, losing to the Boston Celtics in a double-overtime thriller in game seven. In 1958, the Hawks again advanced to the NBA Finals where they avenged their previous year's defeat against the Boston Celtics, winning the series 4-2. Bob Pettit scored 50 points in Game 6 in front of a crowd of 10,218 in St. Louis. The victory gave the Hawks their first and only NBA Championship.

by PointGuardSlim on Sep 27, 2011 2:04 PM EDT reply actions

Still harping on Horford, huh?

I'm on the Twitter: twitter.com/edgrohl

by Duff_Man on Sep 28, 2011 8:06 AM EDT up reply actions

Grantland offers an actual solution...

ATLANTA HAWKS

Abrams: Joe Johnson should happen … but it won’t. Even if the Hawks erased his contract off their salary cap (as well as that $24.9 million final season in 2016 when he will be 34 years old), he is still owed that money and might as well play for it. Instead, Atlanta can wiggle free from Marvin Williams’ contract ($24.9 million through 2014).

Simmons: Agreed. You have to admire the Hawks: They compounded one of the worst NBA mistakes of this century (drafting Williams over Chris Paul) by giving Williams an indefensibly dumb contract extension just in case their fans didn’t feel bad enough about it. I still like my Hedo/Redick-for-Johnson scenario more for them.

Simmons likes cutting bait with Marvin and also trading JJ for Hedo and Redick.

I'm on the Twitter: twitter.com/edgrohl

by Duff_Man on Sep 28, 2011 8:10 AM EDT reply actions

...

Bill Simmons likes us helping Orlando because ATL is nowhere near contension? F*** Simmons.

@Duff_Man
Just give me A) defense: Thabeet B) a spread offense: Motiejunas and put Smith inside

or give me a center for Smith. Smith wont get you a young center ti rebuild. Hawks talent is a threat in the East hierarchy,

Smith has specific holes that means he needs to play inside. Joe Johnson is our biggest mismatch and he is our 6’8 shooting guard-point guard.
He draws the double teams in iso. Not Smith not Horford. Hopefully Teague will :)
http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=3n3j7tn
That team I made is sitting pretty on Lebron + Eddy Curry/Kwame/Joel Anthony.

by PointGuardSlim on Sep 28, 2011 10:16 PM EDT reply actions

For all we know Motiejunas could be = to Yi Jianlian

@Kris_Willis

by Kris Willis on Sep 29, 2011 8:19 AM EDT up reply actions

let him go...

unproven long skilled Euro is guaranteed star, Thabeet solid starter, etc. It’s not stopping, and he has charts. Lots of charts.

http://sportsandgrits.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Sep 29, 2011 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions

What was I thinking?

@Kris_Willis

by Kris Willis on Sep 29, 2011 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Charts?

What charts are you referring to? Was it one from realgm?

The thing is Motiejunas isn’t long. That’s why he’s developed certain skills. He has the same “gator arms” as Troy Murphy, Zach Randolph, Blake Griffin.

As far as Thabeet, he’s not as bad at his role as people think. He moves without the ball but look who he’s going to play with…

Rudy Gay, Zach Randolph, OJ Mayo, Jamaal Tinsley, Courtney Lee, Terrence Williams…

The stuff they were doing was more mind-boggling. Half of defense is taking care of the ball.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4YRfSA7Zbs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3ZmOe70ccw

You saw what Joe Johnson did with Jason Collins. We have Orlando in the bag. But think about everyone else in a lockout season that center platoon of Thabeet, Pachulia, Collins, and with news on Benson reaching 240 that is 15-20 fouls to use on any center and we get the blocks and clogged lane.

Look at what Chicago has and what Miami has. Eddy Curry? Joel Anthony? Asik couldn’t do much with Thabeet head to head. Joakim Noah can’t bully or outrun Thabeet.

But Thabeet isn’t as bad as cooler talk says. Some of his team deserves the blame.

IE this video vs us. The first play Teague and Pachulia trap the PG and no other guard is there so what happens…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ReyDQOsYnec

I dont know if Houston guys on realgm would still give up all 3 bigs and play Al and Scola @ Center. but with Smith, Horford and Marvin’s value dropping its our only chance for a conventional lineup. Next year teams will just wait us out because everyone will know we’re not pretenders.

by PointGuardSlim on Sep 29, 2011 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Since I stopped reading these posts long ago I want to know

Does he just copy and paste them? Or does he type these out every single time?

@Kris_Willis

by Kris Willis on Sep 30, 2011 6:35 AM EDT up reply actions

Really? I type them out.

And
@ Duff_Man Thabeet sucks or Kendrick Perkikns or Pachulia sucks. That is he doesn’t suck. Download and watch his games and you’ll see him moving without the ball, getting into position to help and rebound the ball, rim running.

Only problem is he has Courtney Lee, OJ Mayo, and Jamaal Tinsley at guard trying to defend and feed him instead of a Joe Johnson or a Rajon Rondo.

I dont know what odd math is that shows you Horford doesn’t fit in any spread offense.

Teague-inside
Johnson-outside
~~Horford- mid-range; can’t drive to rim in halfcourt~~
Smith-outside
Pachulia-inside
Motiejunas- outside

Teague- drives inside, no 3pt range; hybrid-guard
Johnson-outside
Smith- inside-baseline
Motiejunas- outside
Pachulia-inside

Its clear Smith has no business being “outside” and even worse Horford doesn’t even work inside! Pachulia – center – and Marvin Williams – can drive & get fouled – almost beat Horford in Free Throws.

Thabeet would lead our team in free throw rate. He gets fouled. “Sucks” is over simplifying. Horford matched up with him last year and what did he do? Nothing except float to 3 point line and brick 15 footers.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L7uBvAybXPY

Horford did his damage against slow-foot Gasol. Thabeet+Pachulia can guard Noah, Asik, Dwight.
You know guys that we have to face in the Playoffs. He gets fouled. Motiejunas plays outside and spreads the offense.

I know Horford’s role on a small ball club but what exactly is Horford’s role on a championship team? I know Motiejunas, I know Joe Johnson’s on a big lineup, I know Josh Smith’s on a big team.

Again, what exactly is Horford’s role on a championship team?

He can’t play speed center
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVD06aFiU7s

He cant play power forward
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LmeUGtWArdE

He cant play outside
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qsqkb88HHuM

This trade was trying to trick Houston on Horford’s prestige.
But no.
You guys are mocking me? When was the last time Horford dropped 16ppg? Playing the mid-range center in blow outs. Other playoffs he twists his ankle trying to do a simple drive.

We’re one year from a rebuild and yet I’m getting mocke? ludicrous.

by PointGuardSlim on Oct 2, 2011 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh god. You're a maniac.

Al Horford skills: Dribbling, mid-range jumper, strength, FTs, can run the break, fills the right lanes on the break, fundamentally sound.

Thabeet skills: D-League experience, height.

I'm on the Twitter: twitter.com/edgrohl

by Duff_Man on Oct 3, 2011 10:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Napoleon complex?

Thabeet:
267 lbs
blocking
field foal %
fouled %
finishing rate %
offensive rebounding

Motiejunas skills: Dribbling, mid-range jumper, strength, draws FTs, can initiate the break, fills the right lanes on the break (trailer), fundamentally sound. Height to Wingspan = Coordination

Our problem is the Eastern Conference. How to put Smith inside and spread the offense without sacrificing defense and size.

Concerning the playoffs
Pachulia+Thabeet+Collins is more than enough size and fouls for the center position.

Smith and Thabeet are inside and get fouled and finish at high rates.

Motiejunas is a Stretch Forward that can put Smith inside and Marvin on the bench. Let Joe find everybody and open the lanes up for Teague, who’s still improving?

Then we add Jordan Hill PF, Marvin @SG, Zaza @ C, Malcolm Thomas @ SF and Kirk HinrichPG to the bench?

Showtime!

by PointGuardSlim on Oct 4, 2011 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions

We could actually trade Thabeet

with Pape Sy, but then Memphis would still have to give us a draft pick

Atlanta will win a championship....someday

by maxxj3 on Oct 4, 2011 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions

You know the trade is with Houston?

by PointGuardSlim on Oct 4, 2011 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions

yep

I’m saying we can get Thabeet dirt cheap

Atlanta will win a championship....someday

by maxxj3 on Oct 4, 2011 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions

?

A) For whom?
B) That would still leave Smith on the wing

1958, the Hawks again advanced to the NBA Finals where they avenged their previous year's defeat against the Boston Celtics. Bob Pettit scored 50 points in Game 6 in front of a crowd of 10,218 in St. Louis. The victory gave the Hawks their first and only NBA Championship.

by PointGuardSlim on Oct 5, 2011 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Stop with Thabeet.

I mean just stop. You can Billy Beane whatever odd math you want, but the guy sucks. Period.

I'm on the Twitter: twitter.com/edgrohl

by Duff_Man on Oct 1, 2011 8:32 AM EDT up reply actions

Is trading Joe to Orlando helping them?

I mean that seriously in a long-term sense. I accept that he’s an upgrade over Jason Richardson, Gilbert Arenas, Hedo Turkoglu, or JJ Redick in year #1. He’s got 5 years left at around 105M. His worth to a team especially in the last 3 years of that deal will depend a lot on how well he can adapt to filling a role a differ to another ball handler and number one option. That’s true even if he stays here. I have my doubts on his willingness to go back to complimentary player after so many years of being the main dog. Especially if it means Teague running the offense and Josh or Al being option #1. He might be more willing to defer to Nelson and Dwight, but I suspect he’ll still be a hard piece to integrate. At best he’d be a one year boon that ties them up for five.

Of the return, Redick has a small enough contract and is a hard worker. Hedo is a prima donna who’s in decline. He’s crafty enough to overcome the physical decline, but he needs the ball to be effective so unless he’s ready to be a 2nd unit creator then he’s a drain to any lineup. I only consider a trade if I can buy him out in an amnesty move. 33M is a lot easier to write off than 105M. We’d be worse for a year but the theory is you make the move with an idea of how you want to build out the team without him.

by Evildallas on Oct 1, 2011 8:41 PM EDT up reply actions

No..

7’3
Yi Jianlian, Andrew Bogut, Bargnani, Tyson Chandler

6’11 wingspan
Zach Randolph, Blake Griffin, Kevin Love, Troy Murphy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fbecTIGy_ZY

I know people don’t consider us contenders but for Bill Simmons to tell us to trade our division rivals who screwed themselves…

He’s basically calling us a farm team!

by PointGuardSlim on Sep 29, 2011 3:28 PM EDT reply actions

people don't get that half of Bill Simmons thing

is to get people talking which is exactly what has happened here. That suggestion is getting a lot more discussion than it deserves

@Kris_Willis

by Kris Willis on Sep 29, 2011 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions

I like Bill Simmons trade proposal

And I think we still beat Orlando in the playoffs, maybe even worse, post trade. Also, even if Josh has hit his ceiling, he is worth more than we’re paying him now, so to say we should keep JJ over him is the most ludicrous statement I’ve ever heard. JJ is not worth as much as Josh Smith, hands down. Josh Smith also makes $6 MILLION LESS per year than JJ. More productive + cost $6 MILLION LESS = keep Josh, let JJ go for whatever we can get.

by IWillPartyHard on Oct 1, 2011 4:40 AM EDT up reply actions