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With The 2010-2011 Season Over, The Atlanta Hawks Move Into An Uncertain Off Season

With the 2010-11 season coming to a close for the Atlanta Hawks we now turn our attention to the off season and forecasting how this team might look next season. We have already discussed John Hollinger's positive outlook for the Hawks. Hollinger basis a lot of his reasoning on the play of Jeff Teague against Chicago. 

Michael Cunningham and Zach Lowe have also weighed in on the Hawks and both agree on one thing. We are going to have to let the CBA situation sort itself out before we can be sure about this Hawks team next season. It is expected that teams will have fewer options once everything is sorted out and their may not be as many ways to circumvent the salary cap as there are now. Any thing that is said right now is speculation because the rules will in all likelihood change. 

Star-divide

Cunningham points out that under the current rules, Atlanta would have roughly 3$ million dollars to sign six players just to get to the league minimum of 13 players.

Under the current rules it’s hard to see how the Hawks could even fill out the roster with the minimum 13 players without paying the tax. Right now their options are limited to trades and using exceptions to acquire players whose salaries that don’t put them over the tax level. Assuming the tax threshold is about the same as it was the past three seasons, about $70 million, the Hawks would have roughly $3 million of wiggle room to sign six players.

That would suggest that somebody making a large salary number might have to go in some kind of cost cutting move and that is before we have even talked about whether or not the Hawks should attempt to bring back Jamal Crawford. Lowe suggests that Atlanta may look to part with a player like Marvin Williams

But Marvin Williams, owed about $8 million year through 2013-14, might be. The Hawks, more than almost any team, need the new CBA to include some form of long-term salary relief.

The only problem with that plan is whether or not Atlanta can find a trade partner that is willing to take Williams. I am not sure that Williams can't be a productive player somewhere on an NBA team but it is growing more and more apparent that he needs a change of scenery to be successful. In Atlanta he will forever be judged on who he isn't (Chris Paul) rather than what he is. Lowe also discusses that in the latest CBA proposal by ownership that was rejected by the players included a one time amnesty clause where each team could waive one player without salary cap penalties. In other words, if that scenario came to pass, Atlanta could elect to waive a player like Marvin Williams and he would no longer count towards the salary cap. Williams would still be paid his full contract but that money wouldn't factor in on Atlanta's salary cap calculations. It is that kind of uncertainty that makes forecasting this off season that much more difficult. 

The Jamal Crawford situation isn't that difficult in my mind to forecast because I simply don't think that Atlanta can afford to bring him back even if they are able to dump a player like Williams. Somebody will throw money Crawford's way and the Hawks would seem to be well served moving into next season with some sort of rotation made up by Jeff Teague, Joe Johnson and Kirk Hinrich. Crawford is 31 years old and the Hawks are heavily invested in the shooting guard position already (Joe Johnson). Hinrich is capable of playing both guard spots but won't bring the offensive firepower that Crawford did but will provide a much more well rounded game at both ends of the floor. 

Jeff Teague played like a seasoned veteran in the Chicago series and I feel like he did enough to prove that he is the answer to Atlanta's long search for a point guard. His performance was a small sample size but he was going against the league MVP and one of the top defenses in the NBA. It was his performance in the playoffs that single handedly changed the outlook of this team going forward in my opinion. Adding even more uncertainty to the situation is the ongoing speculation that the Atlanta Spirit group is about to sell the Atlanta Thrashers. How this will effect the Hawks is unknown at this point. 

One final point that I feel like needs to be addressed as we transition to the off season was the Kirk Hinrich trade. Atlanta gave up a lot when they sent Mike Bibby to Washington along with Jordan Crawford and their 2011 first round pick. As much as I like Kirk Hinrich the question has to be asked if whether or not Atlanta could have solved its problems simply by playing Jeff Teague. Jordan Crawford could have been a sensible and cheap option for replacing Jamal Crawford this season. However, I do like Hinrich and his veteran defensive presence and expiring contract could be valuable in the future. I am not sure of the value of the 2011 first-round pick as this draft is being billed as one of the weakest we have seen in some time. 

These are some of the many questions that we will be discussing and debating as this off season unfolds. Starting very soon we will be taking a player by player look at the Hawks roster and how it might look when the season begins next season. 

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Let's not revisit the Captain Kirk trade

I am still down about the series loss, but I am also mad. Regardless, life moves on…

Was it a good trade? Arguments could be made on both sides.
Pro trade: Hawks were not going to get value out of JC2, with Jamal and JJ already here. JC2 is a SG, and his value as a point is questionable. Hawks were playing for today. They got value for Captain Kirk in place of Bibby. The fake coach LD was not going to let Teague play so we had to do something to help with a fast declining Bibby.

Con: The price was too high (essentially two first round draft picks – though mid- to late first rounds). We lost future of Jamal’s replacement. We lost youth. We lost future in general, and it was shortsighted. We got nothing out of it, because Teague was already here and he is the point next year and Captain Kirk future is uncertain to say the least.

I am on the Con side of the coin. But regardless, we need to move on and not revisit history. We need to be forward looking.

What happens now is this relative to guards:
1. Teague is the starter point. JJ is the starting shooting guard.
2. We don’t sign Jamal.
3. We give Captain Kirk in a trade with Lakers. Captain Kirk is valuable on the open market. We get a Laker Barnes (to replace Marvin and bring toughness), AND Odom or preferably Gasol or Bynum in trade. To make the trade work, we can throw Marvin and a Chik-Fil-A value meal in there(hint Chik-Fil-A value meal has more value on open market than Marvin).
4. We can find minimum salary guard (Murry any one out there) also.

This is the path forward. We don’t need to keep Captain Kirk any more. And let’s not revisit the merits of the trade of the season just finished.

by ATLpaul on May 15, 2011 9:38 AM EDT reply actions  

If the new CBA allows the Hawks to cut somebody, they should cut Joe then also trade Marvin and let Jamal leave (or preferably sign-and-trade him for bench help). Hopefully doing all that would free up enough money under the cap for them then to pursue a quality free agent or two. Now do I actually think Rick Sund would do that? Hell no. He’s Mr. Keep The Core And Hope For the Best. Therefore he should not be re-signed.

by redwards95 on May 15, 2011 10:33 AM EDT reply actions  

Good stuff trying to take this bag of snakes and lay them out straight...

I wish you could do an adequate preview of what to expect this summer, but that is impossible as you say. First and foremost is a labor situation where we may lose 50+% of next season, let alone the offseason. Then there’s the large questions that face the roster without the undetermined CBA and salary rules (and I’d almost assure there’s an amnesty clause, although I’m curious if cut contracts could be reduced by whatever the cut player then gets as a free agent).
As for the roster on the whole, the obvious problems are:
Is Josh Smith a long term piece of a championship caliber team, or will he remain wasting his immense talents to the team’s detriment?
Is Joe a SF or SG going forward?
What to do with Marvin?
Is Teague a long term answer at PG or a one series wonder?
What to do about the long term question that has been the C spot?
How to piece together a bench with the current salary limitations and fix what may be the biggest hole right now?

I’d think those would be the 6 main questions to be answered, once the overarching question of the labor situation gets an answer. But this is not a good off season for the Hawks, to have this many situations up in the air, and to be unable to address them (even considering their past incompetence at addressing them) even if they wanted to because of the labor stuff.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on May 15, 2011 10:40 AM EDT reply actions  

The Hawks almost have to give Teague a chance to be the long term answer at PG. Doing anything else would just be too expensive. From what we saw vs the Bulls, it doesn’t seem like a big gamble.

by redwards95 on May 15, 2011 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions  

Well as of right now...

you’ve got
Teague
Hinrich
Johnson Marvin Sy
Smith
Horford Pachulia

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on May 15, 2011 9:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

We have more choice than last year

Only choice we had last year was whether we re-sign Joe or not

We have less valued but more choice than last year.

Are we going to sign Jamal? (sorry Jamal, but I hope not.)
Are we going to trade Marvin? (sorry Marvin, but I hope we will)
Who starts in PG? Teague? or Kirk?

I`m somewhat optimistic about next year

by kamaboko319 on May 15, 2011 10:52 AM EDT reply actions  

I am optimistic about the upcomming season

I dont think there are any moves that we can make to be a favorite for a championship next year (outside of signing d12), but we can be a dark horse and maybe make it to the conference finals.

We all have talked about how teague has steped up, but what about zaza? How many centers out their will be a free Agent this year that would be a signifigant upgrade? I think if zaza gets more playing time during the regular season, the hawks could do a lot better with the same team.

by PChawksFan on May 16, 2011 4:03 AM EDT via mobile reply actions  

So now what to do with josh...

Atlanta has not had a elite coach to coach josh. If we can upgrade coaches in the off season, i say we keep josh another year. It seamed like he calmed down some with the jumpers afte he got attacked by the media. Unless we make a clear upgrade (ie zach randolph) we keep him and give it till the trade deadline.

by PChawksFan on May 16, 2011 4:07 AM EDT via mobile reply actions  

A couple of thoughts

First, I think many here would say that Williams is being judges by what he is, or rather isn’t, not on what player we could have got instead. Sure, the Chris Paul argument still comes up, but at this point it’s really no longer relevant. Williams has had multiple years to become something, anything, for this team and has yet to do so. Besides defense, which recently is becoming questionable, he provide nothing outside of a game or two every three months. Quite frankly, I don’t see any value there outside of trade fluff to make numbers match.

Also, I’d say that the sale of the Thrashers would have a bigger part in things than most might initially think. I haven’t seen the numbers for this year yet, but it’s been reported that the ASG have lost close to $25mil a year on the Thrashers alone over the last 3-4 years. That combined with the fact that almost zero pro sports franchises sell for less than they were bought means that we could see a whole new mentality with the ASG should said the sale actually go through. They might be more likely to go into the tax to get another top player. Of course, it’s also just as likely that nothing changes at all, but I’m trying to stay positive here.

"You could spend the next fifteen seconds of your life watching a man and a tiger scream together, or you could be an idiot."
Fact.

by Jesse28 on May 16, 2011 9:05 AM EDT reply actions  

Horfy should improve his inside game, STRAIGHT UP!

I dunno about Marvin or Jamal, we should trade them now! About Smoove, hmmmm, I don’t know guys. I kept believing and believing in him that he’ll be more focused inside but he disappoints me every time. Can we trade Smoove for McGee? :D

by bibbY10 on May 16, 2011 10:42 AM EDT reply actions  

That really sucks for Marvin

I really believe that in the right system, he could thrive.

@ I_20sFinest

by dstdeelite on May 16, 2011 3:10 PM EDT reply actions  

I believe this too

But his lack of a consistent jumpshot puts the team at a disadvantage as he basically becomes
a poor mans Josh Smith.

by Jonesy24 on May 16, 2011 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

He'd be a good Heat...

just be another big body playing off their big two, knocking down open jumpers and playing hard D.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on May 16, 2011 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

well but the positive is Captain Kirk is an asset that other teams want

We would not have been able to get a good big from another team for Bibby or JC2. As long as we have JJ, a JC2 player doesn’t get that many minutes.

So if we look for future possibilities, I think with development of Teague, we can trade Captain Kirk and perhaps get a good big from a Dallas (Branden Haywood) or Lakers (Gasol/Bynum/Odom).

We have to use our tools, and not wait to see them walk away, like Jamal will for nothing.

by ATLpaul on May 16, 2011 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Managemennt its going to have to get creative

I’d stick with the Teague Johnson Smith Horford core, possibly look to Greg Oden and take a gamble on him. Trade Marvin for any type of value at this point or package him with Heinrich and see what we can get. Either way Marvin has to be gone, hes too inconsistent and his style of play will always contrast Joe’s and Josh’s high usage rates

by Jonesy24 on May 16, 2011 3:46 PM EDT reply actions  

Trade Smoove and Kirk

To Denver for Nene and Felton. Nene + Horford would be one intimidating front court. Felton can slide into Jamal’s sixth man spot as he can play both PG and SG, but he is also younger and a much much better defender than Jamal. Denver does it because they may lose Nene for nothing, getting Smoove would give them the dominant PF they need now that KMarts contract is finally up.

Ideally the new CBA includes an amnesty provision (I find it impossible to believe it won’t) and we can waive Marvin. We’d be thin at SF but we could add depth there via FA. If we waived Marvin we’d have around $10M to sign 6 more players. Lineup would look like this.

PG: Teague, Felton
SG: Johnson, Felton, Free Agent
SF: Free Agent, Sy, Free Agent
PF: Horford, Free Agent, Free Agent
C: Nene, Zaza, Free Agent

Hard to argue that this would not be a significantly better team, and it’s doable without spending any extra money. I think a move like this needs to be made where we move either Josh or Al to bring back a true defensive center plus some more value. Anyone who thinks we’ll get anything for Marvin and his terrible contract are kidding themselves.

by IWillPartyHard on May 16, 2011 4:48 PM EDT reply actions  

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