Hawk Str8Talk is back - Offseason/Season Musings

by Hawk Str8Talk on Dec 31, 2011 3:44 PM EST

It's time for some Str8Talk. After flirting with the end of the blog (by virtue of my pledge that I would quit blogging if the Hawks defeated the Bulls in last year's playoffs), it's time to get back to blogging. As we go into our 4th year, I'm sure my tens of fans have asked - why the lack of blogs this offseason. Well, two things happened - there was this thing called the lockout, which was really not about principles but was simply a money grab for the owners so they could continue to run the league with the same issues of competitive balance at play (see Paul, Chris & Howard, Dwight) and there ALSO was this thing that happened called - the Hawks are NOT sold. The first muted my desire to blog, the second KILLED it...

Yes, this was a crushing blow for us here at Hawk Str8Talk HQ. You've seen our disclaimer since the start of this blog (and if you haven't - here it is - Disclaimer: As always, all criticisms come after blaming the Atlanta Spirit Group first, management second, and then coaches and players last. Those criticisms come through the prism of winning championships (or the things that result in championship team building)) and we thought we had permanently retired it at the sight of Mr. Alex Mereulo. But then, in true Hawks ownership fashion and like Sugar Ray Leonard, someone's money was kinda funny and well, long story short - the disclaimer is un-retired and is back. For those who are new to this blog, then you only need to read this and this to understand why the disclaimer is necessary. We'll discuss these further below, but to be clear - all critical thinking starts at the top and trickles down from there. So, with that, we needed a minute to ready for the season, but just like last year - 6 days in, we're ready to go. So, let's end 2011 with a kickoff for Hawk Str8Talk...like last year, the desire to do game recaps is over, but we will continue to do a weekly article here and on Peachtree Hoops called Honesty Corner's 5 Truths - where we put the week's 5 most important observations. Also, we will talk about things off the beaten path (like Al Horford's marriage - scandalous stuff indeed) and what's happening in Hawk land behind the scenes. If you want to get our musings during the games, you can check me out at @hawkstr8talk on Twitter. So, with no further ado, it's time to get to the thoughts and predictions where we promise - all predictions wrong or this blog costs you more than free.

Before we delve into the season, let's talk about the value of our blog in relation (not instead of) to our Hawks blog brethren - who you can check on here here and here and here along with my Hawks blog boo here. There are some things that you need to be aware of:

This blog is all about winning championships. So, you can read here how we could win the battle and lose the war. This is about critical thinking our way to a NBA championship. Yes, on game day, I'm cheering my HEART out for the Hawks, but the goal of the BLOG is to report on all things related to how the hell do we win a title? Period. Go to our other brethren if you want a viewpoint that's more cheering no matter what the facts may say (Note: that's not meant as a slight to other blogs, just to say that that's my only true angle - winning a title).
This blog is about talking the things that other blogs don't...like - how did the dance team do? where groupies in full force for the big games? what is happening in the front office? why you should go to Miami for a road trip once a year? Etc, etc, etc...
This blog is lastly about fun - so keep your hate confined to Tea Party rallies. Here is where sanity reigns and critical debate is welcome as long as you know how to keep your feelings in check.

As we did the last 3 years, it's time to give our review of the coach and the team and its prospects. As well as our (drum roll please) best case and worst case predictions along with our true prediction for 2011-2012. One last note - we reserve the right to change our prediction as things change. We'll identify when that happens and make adjustments as necessary. Now, off to the analysis:

Offseason Additions/Subtractions:

Let's start with the subtractions - Hilton Armstrong, Josh Powell, and Etan Thomas will not be missed one iota. Damien Wilkins was replaceable while providing some negligible value last year. This leaves us with Pape Sy and Jamal Crawford. It's unfortunate that we have to use a seemingly average to below average player to prove a point, but Pape Sy is just another example of either the Hawks inability to develop talent or their inability to scout players. In either (or both), the waiving of a player that you bought out of his contract just last year should be a significant demerit against the Rick Sund regime. For me, it's both. A team with the limited budget that the Hawks have can't invest in a player that you don't get a chance to validate one way or the other. This more than a concern that we're missing out on hidden gems is the problem with our management and the coaching team's synergy in selecting players that will aid in our pursuit of a title. The franchise that doesn't give a reasonable chance to Jordan Crawford, Keith Benson, and now Pape Sy. Not to mention past casualties Acie Law IV, Salim Stoudamire, Solomon Jones, Sergiy Gladyr, and Cenk Aykol, Oh, and did I forget to mention Jeff Teague (we'll come back to him later). The point is simply that a team with razor thin margins for adding talent (via draft and veterans signed at the minimum) cannot be cavalier about the process of adding talent nor acquiring assets (draft picks, trade exceptions) that will move the franchise forward. After saying all that, Pape Sy and Keith Benson weren't good, never were, so let's move on.

This brings us to Jamal Crawford. There was a lot of chatter about whether or not to bring back Jamal Crawford and so that I don't spend a lot of time on this - here's a truth that many people still haven't grasped and that's that - Jamal Crawford was never a great acquisition for this franchise. For $18M over 2 years, getting highlights and scoring is not enough. You can compare him to Acie Law IV and Craig (can't call him Speedy) Claxton, but I'd prefer to compare him to what else other teams would have attempted to get for $9M a year in their place. So, instead of trading for a luxury piece vs. a true need, I've said this since the trade and I maintain that Jamal Crawford (much like Kirk Hinrich) are not players you can retain at the price tag we are paying when you have other glaring needs. It was tolerable during his 6th Man of the Year season, but last year - a $9M price tag for a backup shooting guard who doesn't do anything other than score (esp. at less than an elite level) - Jamal Crawford should have been on the trading block from offseason through the trading deadline. Unfortunately, our management and coaching staff looked at him as a core component instead of the enhanced Eddie House luxury piece to a puzzle that any other championship level team would view Jamal as. To be clear, I like Jamal Crawford as a person, but I've maintained for 2 years that he's a flashy guy who exhibits traits that belie why his previous teams have never made the playoffs. Additionally, there are players for a cheaper price that could put up similar numbers if all you asked him to do was come in and score the ball. The whole thing was always illogical to have $30M invested in the shooting guard position for a combo that doesn't include Jordan, Wade, etc. So, in true Hawks fashion, we never looked to get an asset back from a player we certainly weren't going to be able to resign from the moment we re-signed Joe Johnson. Like Mike Woodson, I suspect that we'll look back and say - hmmm, why isn't he setting the world on fire the way we thought he was (for those who believe that) in his post-Hawks career? (Note: I'm still waiting for the first article blasting the Hawks for letting Jamal Crawford go.)

Enough of looking backward, let's go forward and say that we added some players...Tracy McGrady, Jannero Pargo, Donald Sloan, Willie Green, Jerry Stackhouse, Ivan Johnson, and Vladimir Radmanovic. We know that all of these guys are coming in for the absolute minimum you can pay a player, so let's separate the gold from the fool's version. Here's what you hope happens - Tracy McGrady and Vladimir Radmanovic are good additions that you hope don't fall victim to the insane schedule this year. Whether they have anything left in the tank by the (spoiler alert) playoffs will determine what round this team bows out of. Jannero Pargo and Willie Green probably shouldn't be on the team (not at the expense of Pape Sy or Wanamaker in my mind), but we know that developing talent is ..oh, see my rant above - so let's just hope that their veteran-ness provides some value or their terrible-ness keeps Teague and Hinrich on the court more often that not. Jerry Stackhouse is what we hoped Josh Powell would be last year..a veteran leader who provides locker room leadership. Anyone who watched the Hawks last year, there was not much leadership, so let's hope that Stackhouse can be that guy - or else he needs to be cut. Finally, Ivan Johnson and Donald Sloan are this season's sit on the bench guys and they may deserve to be, but let's hope that when the schedule is insane and players are in foul trouble or injured that opportunities to prove their worth are offered to these guys (or in Pargo's case - simply letting Sloan play could just be the best thing to do no matter what).

Overall, the additions are a net positive over last year's group at first glance (Jamal Crawford included), but we'll see if that lasts since we know that one or two of these guys will be waived during the season to keep the team under the tax and who knows how the injury front will impact us. So, I congratulate Rick Sund on signing players who can contribute this year while I continue to give him the side eye for not being able to make the hard decisions to carve out cap room and draft picks for use this year and in anticipation of next season's free agent pool.

Coaching:
I was a very vocal dissenting voice in selecting Larry Drew as our coach. Never say that I'm not consistent when I say - I still don't believe in Larry Drew. I give him credit for his use of Jason Collins in last year's playoff series vs. the Orlando Magic. That's about the only thing I can say was A+ work. When I juxtapose that with his decision to sit Jeff Teague long enough that we gave away our Jamal Crawford replacement AND a draft pick (hello Chris Singleton or even Norris Cole) searching for what was sitting on our bench at (wait for it) a higher price tag than the other guy we shouldn't have been paying (Mike Bibby anyone?) as much as we were, then the Jason Collins move doesn't make me feel warm and fuzzy. In fact, that decision alone makes me angry. Every time I watch Jeff Teague do something that none of our other guards can do - I say to myself how can the point guard developing Larry Drew not see what my limited basketball knowledge seems to see. So, call me biased, but something drastic will have to happen to change the opinion that this is NOT the coach for the future.

What drastic thing could happen - well, glad you asked...they are going to be things that aren't foreign to many Hawks fans (and some that may). They are:

Not allowing Josh Smith to shoot jump shots without his ass hitting the pine
Giving Jeff Teague the freedom to run the offense and allowing him to make mistakes without pulling him like the rest of the starters.
Never starting Kirk Hinrich (unless it's as a SG and Joe Johnson as a SF or as a result of an injury).
Selecting Al Horford as your ONE and ONLY captain.
Retiring the Horford Treatment (a la 2 fouls and you sit for the half).
Making Marvin Williams your 6th Man (my request for the past 3 seasons)
Putting an end to the Hawks proclivity to turn transition opportunities into jump shots (mostly due to forwards and centers trying to run the break)

These are things that would move the needle in terms of putting a stamp on this team's identity and showing that we are more disciplined and focused on the things that win championships. The sooner he recognizes that this team's ability to win a title is tied to defense, depth, and Jeff Teague's development - the better. Until then, I'm not a believer.

Starters:
This season I'll only make some statements in the form of bulleted items:

Bottom line, Jeff Teague is the far and away X factor for this team. It can be argued that there's some improvement to be pulled from Joe, Josh, Al, and Marvin, but I prefer to think that those guys are who they are within some standard deviation. I'm not expecting them to do much different this year than last year (unless of course, you move Marvin to the 6th Man role), but as the number one Teague fan (see here and here) and as seemingly the only sane voice in the Hawks blogosphere in Teague's rookie season who called for him to start THEN - it's beyond obvious that having a penetrating guard who can finish at the rim AND defend other point guards credibly is the key to giving this team a new look and more varied options offensively and defensively. He is more and more becoming the guy I said he could possibly be and that's...Rajon Rondo. (Note: It's also fair that I'm going to be biased about this all season long because it validates maybe the best call I've made since I drafted LaDainian Tomlinson his rookie year in my keeper football fantasy draft.)
As for the rest of the team, they are who they are. Hopefully, we'll decide to trade Josh or Al and get a center (Howard anyone?) and move toward pushing toward a title, but until then - let's just see whether Joe can put up a $20M worthy season, Marvin's back lets him get to making a better defensive contribution and open jump shots and that Al and Josh do what they do BEST ALL THE TIME.

Bench:
I mentioned much about them in my offseason piece, so I'll simply say that if we don't have to use Jason Collins over Zaza Pachulia, then this season is success. I'm not sure why he's not considered a part of the core, but Zaza is a 2nd team beast and he should be utilized as such. Done and done.

Intangibles:

I'm not really sure what to make of the Hawks being full of veterans that we know aren't going to be here next year, but we will have to just see if T-Mc and V-Rod can provide some significant value to go along with Zaza and Hinrich. While I have serious reservations about the ability of this team to go past the 2nd round, I can say that as long as Teague is leading this team - I have hope that we will compete differently than ever. We still don't have any championship leaders or toughness, but...in Teague I trust.

Last note - there have been recent discussions about trading for Dwight Howard. Short of them saying we want your starting 5 and your next 3 years worth of draft picks - my answer is DO IT! Yes, it's a risk, but if you're trying to win a title - you will do it with Dwight Howard more than with Josh Smith, Joe Johnson, etc. So, doesn't matter the package - just do it (well, it does, but I'm saying that a reasonable offer even one more weighted to the Magic is ok with me), then figure out how to keep him in town. Probably too much to ask of this ownership and management, but I must admit that if the conversations are even being had, then KUDOS. Bout time we're in the discussions for elite talent.

Ok, you had to read through all of that just to get to my predictions, so here they go:

Best Case Prediction - 44-22 (3rd in Eastern Conference)
Worst Case Prediction - 31-35 (9th in Eastern Conference)
My Prediction - 38-28 (5th in Eastern Conference) and a 1st round playoff exit

Simply put, at our healthiest, we are a good team with a puncher's chance, but I can't overlook the fact that the schedule is crazy and injuries and overuse happen, so we can't believe that no one is going to get hurt and that these old veterans won't be shells of their selves by season's end and with little evidence from past years that we'll develop our players for that circumstance - we have to believe that we'll hit a stretch where we lose games we shouldn't that will lead us to the 5th seed (Miami and Chicago are easy - I'm fearful that New York and my darkhorse, Indiana may jump up over us).

So, what do you guys think? Leave your predictions in the comments and we'll see you at the Highlight Factory!!!

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I liked the post

Craig (can’t call him Speedy) Claxton……………… Jamal crawford an enhanced eddie house luxary piece

I read this then started laughing and lost where I was at

"A ‘No’ uttered from the deepest conviction is better than a ‘Yes’ merely uttered to please, or worse, to avoid trouble."
Mohandas Gandhi

"We make a living by what we get, but we make a life by what we give."
Winston Churchill

"Let he who is without sin cast the first stone"
Jesus

"We were real solid on both ends of the floor today and had positive energy coming from the bench tonight."
Jeff Teague

by Throw on Dec 31, 2011 4:02 PM EST reply actions

Why do you want Marv as the sixth man?

You’re gonna have Vlad or TMac start? Or are you saying to use the big lineup with Collins or Zaza?

by axhfan on Dec 31, 2011 4:08 PM EST reply actions

I agree

Marvin might be good as a 6th if we had a decent replacement for him in the starting lineup defensively. The starting 5 is fine without his offense but his only replacements are awful on d.

Maybe when Hinrich gets back we could make that shift and have joe guard the 3 at the beginning of the game.

However in the first 3 games I think zaza, McGrady and Vlad are actually developing some chemistry. Too bad Willie and Pargo are horrible.

by danielduello on Dec 31, 2011 5:04 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions

I think Willie will be a decent contributor by All-Star break.

But I think the bench will be very good if not one of the best in the league once Hinrich gets back. They know their roles and they already seem to have a chemistry among themselve. Zaza is Zaza. VladRad must shoot every open three given. T-Mac is the anchor and he brings fluidity and a calming threat that the other bench players can rely on. And Hinrich will give us one of the best guard rotations in the league.

by jdewayneatl on Dec 31, 2011 5:11 PM EST up reply actions

Let's hope

because right now – Willie Green has been garbage. Only Pargo has had more time doing nothing in these games. Hinrich has never been more valuable than after seeing Pargo in the game. Sloan Anyone?

Hawk Str8Talk

by Hawk Str8Talk on Dec 31, 2011 7:34 PM EST up reply actions

Start TMac or V-Rod

doesn’t matter – the point being offensively Marvin is never going to be more than the 4th option (esp. if teague keeps growing in his role) and I agree that they aren’t great on D, but Marvin hasn’t been a stopper so I can’t say that the drop off is so great that it can’t be considered. I would say that when there are stars like LeBron, then yes start Marvin, but otherwise – let’s give this 6th man thing some burn and see how it works.

Hawk Str8Talk

by Hawk Str8Talk on Dec 31, 2011 7:33 PM EST up reply actions

Niiice!

I am glad that we agree on Jamal. Jamal was in the way of Teague (but even Bibby was given the keys over Teague when it was so apparent that Bibby just wasn’t up to the task anymore). I really believe that the Hawks have a chance to exceed your best case scenario this season. I will adjust accordingly after the coming week lol.

by jdewayneatl on Dec 31, 2011 5:07 PM EST reply actions

im with you guys

im 100% with you guys on jamal

"A ‘No’ uttered from the deepest conviction is better than a ‘Yes’ merely uttered to please, or worse, to avoid trouble."
Mohandas Gandhi

"We make a living by what we get, but we make a life by what we give."
Winston Churchill

"Let he who is without sin cast the first stone"
Jesus

"We were real solid on both ends of the floor today and had positive energy coming from the bench tonight."
Jeff Teague

by Throw on Dec 31, 2011 6:04 PM EST up reply actions

Glad to see you back

Passion is what being a fan is about and you bring it.
I pretty much agree with all you say but two items,

1. Marvin as bench, I initially would have supported that position, but seems Marvin is doing good, so as I am being called the Romeny of this blog site(!), I am flip-flopping, and am now saying that I kind of like his “so far” new attitude. But I have the right to flip-flop back to my initial position which is your new current position. I know my head hurts, but I think I am making sense.

2. Teague as Rondo? Really? Do you feel Teague will ever become a natural distributor? It seems to me like he is more of a poor man’s Russell Westbrook (in time he may be rich man’s Russell Westbrook). I mean it seems like Teague scores and that is his forte. I am curious why you think he is like Rondo and not like Westbrook?

Otherwise, well done, nicely composed and done

My prediction, Hawks as number 7, at 35-31, out in first round, agree with a puncher’s chance to go to next round. I don’t see ECF without a trade for a seven footer

by ATLpaul on Dec 31, 2011 6:45 PM EST reply actions

fair

but here’s the thing about Marvin’s ascension – it’s come at the expense of Josh and Al looking like straight garbage, so at the point that those guys get more shots – Marvin will look like the aloof starter he’s been most of his career. I can see him starting if we make a trade, but right now I like his scoring punch on the 2nd team much more than I see it being necessary on the 1st.. You take Marvin off the first team and you still have scoring, but not so much for our 2nd team. I see him as a guy who can dominate second teams for us.

As for Rondo, Rondo was not a natural distributor when he came into the league. He developed. Only thing he had was natural defensive talent, so I can see Teague getting accustomed to breaking down defenses and learning how to dish when he can’t finish. But I can’t argue that maybe he’s more Russell Westbrook (without the ’I’m better than Durant’ ego), but I see more Rondo in terms of his growth and athleticism and the fact that the only thing holding them back is a jump shot. Esp. with their size. Russell is bigger, so that’s all, but I see the similarities you bring up.

Hawk Str8Talk

by Hawk Str8Talk on Dec 31, 2011 7:42 PM EST up reply actions

Marvin playing better should help them not hurt them

Josh and Al looked had garbage moments when Marvin was playing the role of the invisible man. Josh has continued to be inconsistent and to make poor decisions. Al has continued to move further from the basket. Marvin now healthy is returning to the form he once presented us with. He plays his role well attacks the glass, gets to the line, plays defense, hits open shots, and plays within the offense. Those are the traits of a starter. The up and down play and poor decisions, deciding to bring up the ball yourself with your pg right next to you is something for a sixth man. Let Josh carry the bench.

by RealSquawk on Jan 1, 2012 10:02 PM EST up reply actions

Not so

You are correct about Josh, but let’s be clear – Josh is your most talented player and doesn’t have the mental makeup to be your 6th man. Plus, he isn’t a shot maker and has little ball handling skill to come in and take over the 2nd string. 6th man takes a special mindset and I think Marvin’s time as our 4th or 5th option would make him more amenable than Josh to look at that role as something that gives him more autonomy to shoot and take over games when the 2nd team is in. Makes him more aggressive, etc. Josh does that now, so sending him to the 2nd team would only serve to at his best make our defense weaker and cause him to try to do more that I’m not sure he should be doing. I know we got a lot of Marvin mania going on, but as much as I get frustrated with Josh – he’s always been a much better player than Marvin. Marvin’s time in the limelight these last few days still hasn’t shown that he could actually dominate a game for the Hawks. Josh has certainly shown an ability to do that. Let’s not let 3-4 games cloud our judgment in that regard. I’d need to see at least about 30-40 more games to be convinced that Marvin can take that weight.

if anyone should be questioned in that regard, it should be Al. I have continually said that much of the inflation of Al’s value is because of how bad the center position is across the NBA vs. some true elite production by Al. Al’s a good player – don’t get me wrong, but I think the love affair with Al is due to the contrast he has with Josh vs. his ability to dominate a basketball game. Josh and Jeff are the closest things I’ve seen on this team to having a player who can truly take over a game and bend it toward their will. Al, Marvin, and Joe just seem to be players with skills that provide you production (if that makes sense).

Hawk Str8Talk

by Hawk Str8Talk on Jan 1, 2012 10:46 PM EST up reply actions

I agree that Josh probably doesn't have the mental makeup

but that is a problem with Josh. I don’t think that he shouldn’t get placed a sixth man just because he doesn’t want to. I really think it would be good for him to play thirty minutes with expectation that the offense is running through him for most of that time. I think he would like that and it would solve the whole moving Al to the four and finding a true center.
And I am not on a MArvin bandwagon I have always been a MArvin supporter even when it wasn’t right to support him. He has had big moments in the past.

Al plays like a starter, within the offense. He has drifted further away from the basket and is playing softer, which doesn’t endear me to him at all, but I think he is doing this because he wants to play the four, which is also a knock.

I am fine either way really I think Marvin would so great as a 6th man because you could run the offense through him as well, but its not going to be a change of a pace active squad that you would want from a second unit. If Josh Smith was running up and down the court blocking shots and dunking that would be a game changer.

by RealSquawk on Jan 2, 2012 12:18 PM EST up reply actions

I’m mostly in agreement with you except on Hinrich. A championship contender needs a backup PG/SG who can play some defense and make 3s especially given Joe’s age, Teague’s inexperience, and the brutal schedule this year. Those kinds of players don’t grow on trees. Witness who the Hawks have had at that position the past decade (or at starting PG for that matter). Kirk is worth keeping and maybe even extending for a year or 2.

by redwards95 on Jan 1, 2012 6:34 AM EST reply actions

I would agree but

that’s only if we managed the cap effectively, which we haven’t. Again, that statement isn’t against Hinrich – it’s just that he’s too expensive to be your backup point guard on a team trying to still acquire assets to be a contender. We’re still a few pieces away if you ask me, so if you can get rid of him so that you can get those pieces, then that’s what has to be done. It’s the same concept for Jamal – Jamal is a player you can have on your team, but not at $9M for what he provides you. Extending him means you can’t sign Jeff Teague if he’s your future or sign free agents at the end of the season or offseason. So, I hear you, but I also say if you have the franchise’s long term health in mind and believe as I do that this current team is not a contender, then no – you can’t keep Hinrich without a reduction in salary.

Hawk Str8Talk

by Hawk Str8Talk on Jan 1, 2012 10:36 PM EST up reply actions

I agree with most of what you said here

I will argue that Marvin should be starting. But at the same time he should get alot of his minutes with the second unit as well. So he would become the 6th man without actually being the 6th man. IF Marvin Williams is going to be the first man coming out every time, no matter the circumstance he should be the first starting player back onto the floor to help Tracy McGrady and Zaza with the second unit. Willie Green isnt an NBA player and shouldnt see the floor.

by Jonesy24 on Jan 2, 2012 4:34 AM EST reply actions

That's fair

and if he continues to be aggressive – while I still don’t agree that he’s best served as a starter – then I can accept him there. My biggest thing is just that hes always going to be the 4th option at best as a starter and as a result he plays passively most of the time. If you know that Joe, Josh, and Al have to get touches and as we watch Jeff get better – he’s battling for the table scraps. You can’t take over when there are 4 people who need shots more than you, particularly when you haven’t shown that you are worthy of getting shots over these guys for any stretches of your career. But on the bench – you can certainly say to everyone but possibly T-Mc…I’m taking most of these shots on the bench and then run with the starters when you need more defense or more shooters. Makes him a better version of Jamal in that he can do something other than just shoot.

Hawk Str8Talk

by Hawk Str8Talk on Jan 2, 2012 12:23 PM EST reply actions