John Hollinger Ranking of Hawks: Debunked

Yeah saying the Hawks will miss the playoffs is ridiculous (assuming Teague’s ankle injury isn’t serious and Hinrich is back sometime in early February and nobody else has a major injury). There’s a much higher chance they will be a top 3 seed than miss the playoffs altogether…

1. Miami
2. Chicago
3-6. Atlanta/Boston/New York/Orlando in random order
7-8. Pick 2 other random teams

Hinrich will miss half the year which means the backup for half the season is Jannero Pargo.

Willie Green (signed AFTER Hollinger’s analysis) is a major downgrade from Jamal Crawford no matter how you slice it.

Tracy McGrady isn’t much better than Mo Evans at this point, and a far worse bet to stay healthy.

Vladimir Radmanovic is a better shooter than Powell, but also softer on the interior. He does make some sense in Smoove-Rad-Horford lineups but this is a fairly minimal upgrade considering the projected PT.

Those are downgrades to the bench without any upgrades to the starting lineup, in a year where bench depth will supercede teams that ride their starters hard (like the Hawks). Hollinger’s points about the Hawks point differential and playoff advancement are all valid: they scream fluke more than anything and teams are hardly lucky twice.

Heat
PG: Norris Cole > Pargo
SG: Shane Battier AND Mike Miller >>>>>>>> Willie Green
SF: Shane Battier AND James Jones >>>>>>>> Tracy McGrady
PF: Haslem >>> Radmanovic (Push? What league have you been watching?)
C: Haslem = Zaza (If you really think Pittman is getting backup C mins and not Bosh…)

Miami’s depth is incredible compared to ATL. You might have noticed they have a better starting lineup too.

Celtics
PG: Dooling > Pargo
SG: Daniels = Green
SF: Pietrus = McGrady
PF: Bass >>>>>>>>>>>> Radmanovic
C: Wilcox = Zaza

Hawks fans should already know where their starters stand in comparison to the Celtics. It’s a big 3 vs a big 4.

Magic
PG: Duhon = Pargo
SG: Redick > Green (Von Wafer = Green)
SF: Q-Rich < McGrady
PF: Anderson >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Radmanovic
C: Davis > Zaza (Davis & Anderson will each get 30 mpg, Orton will not play)

Magic dumped Arenas which is addition by subtraction, upgraded backup C. I would not bank on Magic 3pt shooters clanking wide open shots a second time around, especially without the offensive firepower to keep up w/ Orlando’s second unit (no Crawford).

Knicks
PG: Bibby > Pargo
SG: Shumpert > Green (LMFAO @ “PUSH” for Sy, 16th pick vs 54th pick who got cut, yeah ok there)
SF: Walker/Balkman < McGrady
PF: Jeffries = Radmanovic
C: Harrellson/Jeffries < Zaza (why you are listing Jerome Jordan who didn’t even play pre-season is anyone’s guess)

Both teams have a PG who will miss half the season w/ injury. Davis will have a bigger impact than Hinrich, who you might recall wasn’t much of an upgrade from Bibby when he joined the team and is mostly living on name recognition at this point (2007 was a LONG time ago).

Bulls
PG: Watson > Pargo (there’s a reason Pargo didn’t play a single minute for them)
SG: Brewer > Green
SF: Korver = McGrady
PF: Gibson > Radmanovic
C: Asik = Zaza

Sixers
PG: Lou Williams >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Pargo
SG: Turner = Green (IF Turner didn’t improve one bit, which is extremely unlikely)
SF: Young >>>>>>>> McGrady
PF: Young >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Radmanovic
C: Speights = Zaza (but Zaza > Vucevic who probably gets used instead)

Pacers
PG: Collison or Hill >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Pargo
SG: Hill >>>> Green
SF: Dahntay Jones = McGrady
PF: Hansbrough
C: Hansbrough > Zaza (David West the center when next to Tyler)

Bucks
PG: Udrih AND Livingston >>>>>>>> Pargo
SG: Dunleavy > Green
SF: Dunleavy > McGrady
PF: Mbah a Moute AND Ilyasova >>>> Radmanovic
C: Gooden > Zaza (will get most of minutes whether he starts at PF or not)

If Dunleavy starts and Stephen Jackson is the team’s sixth man, he is obviously a much better player than Green or McGrady.

Bench depth is a very clear and extreme weakness for the Hawks, and one needs to seriously re-consider their stance on this issue and remove their homer goggles. Pape “Push” Sy didn’t even make the cut over Jerry Stackhouse which should say it all about the overvaluing of your team’s role players.

It doesn’t evaluate defensive role players (i.e. reason Jason Collins has been in league so long)

Also there is no point in comparing PER w/o comparing ROLE AND PLAYING TIME.

Giving equal weight to Thaddeus Young’s enormous advantage over T-Mac and Radmanovic’s minor PER advantage over Nocioni is foolish as Young gets the majority of minutes at both positions and Noc wasn’t even in the playoff rotation. Why compare Zaza to Speights when Brand gets most of the backup minutes? Willie Green similar to (rookie) Turner, fine, but what about when Sweet Lou plays SG next to Holiday?

36 minutes of Iguodala
PG: Holiday (34), Williams (14)
SG: Meeks (26), Turner (12), Williams (10)
SF: Iguodala (35), Turner (13)
PF: Brand (17), Young (31)
C: Hawes (21), Brand (15), Speights (12)

Hawks
PG: Teague (36), Pargo (12)
SG: Johnson (35), Green (13)
SF: Williams (28), McGrady (20)
PF: Smith (34), Radmanovic (10), Horford (4)
C: Horford (30), Pachulia (18)

“With the Hawks defensive improvement from the bench they now have the pieces to compete with the Bulls bench.”

Is it me, or is Jamal Crawford far too undervalued here? Atlanta’s mediocre offense dies as soon as one of Johnson/Smith/Horford goes to the bench. There isn’t a single QUALITY defender on the bench. Green and McGrady are adequate but they are not stoppers, and certainly not good enough on that end to make up for the loss of Crawford’s offense (barring an unforeseen miracle comeback from McGrady)

Hawks OFF = 0.94 Points Per Possession (14th)
101 Horford (7)
99 Wilkins (5)
99 Bibby (5)
96 Crawford (2)
96 Williams (2)
93 Hinrich (2)
91 Smith (-3)
91 Johnson (-3)
91 Teague (-3)
90 Pachulia (-4)
85 Collins (-9)
81 Powell (-13)
81 Sy (-13)

Crawford was basically the 2nd most efficient scorer on the team. His replacements?
94 Radmanovic
93 Green
86 McGrady
71 Stackhouse

Hawks DEF = 0.90 Points Per Possession (13th)
82 Horford (8)
83 Teague (7)
83 Sy (7)
84 Collins(6)
85 Smith (5)
85 Crawford (5)
88 Powell (2)
89 Bibby (1)
91 Wilkins (-1)
92 Williams(-2)
93 Johnson (-3)
95 Pachulia (-5)
95 Hinrich (-5)

Crawford was clearly no defensive liability, thriving in his sixth man role. His replacements?

81 McGrady
93 Green
94 Radmanovic
131 Stackhouse

The perceived defense of Green is drastically overstated. McGrady’s was solid but all that does is cancel out his cancerous offensive “production”.

NET (Offense – Defense)
Hawks 0.94 – 0.90 = +4

Horford +19
Crawford +11
Bibby +10
Teague +8
Smith +6
Williams +4
Wilkins +4
Collins +1
Johnson -2
Hinrich -2
Pachulia -5
Powell -7

New Hawks
McGrady +5
Green 0
Radmanovic 0
Stackhouse -60 (yeah, he was DONE last year)

Green is a major downgrade from Crawford
McGrady replaces Wilkins
Radmanovic ‘s defense hurts the team but he is an upgrade from Powell
Having Hinrich is meaningless if he can’t outproduce Bibby on both ends.
Pargo is filling in for Hinrich half the year.

The team was lucky to finish 5th and will find extreme difficulty repeating that success without major changes or an all-star caliber MIP performance from Jeff Teague.

What player have you been watching the last 10 years? McGrady PERFECTED the bad shot, hoisting contested mid-range jumper after contested mid-range jumper and then wondering why his teams couldn’t get over the hump. The only difference between now and his prime is that he’s shooting less. He is TERRIBLE in transition (0.53 PPP, 309th in the league, only 5% of his possessions, relegated to trailing plays for fastbreak JUMPERS) and cannot reliably score in any other way than the post (by it’s nature one of the least efficient forms of scoring). He is a weaker shooter, ball handler, slower, and did we mention considerably more injury prone than Crawford? Crawford played fewer than 20 minutes ONCE all year. McGrady did it 28 times and you’re counting on him to step into a 30 mpg player’s shoes???

You keep pointing to McGrady’s defense (marginally better than Crawford’s) yet you still haven’t mentioned where the scoring punch on the bench comes from. Who does the offense run through when Joe Johnson when he comes out of the game?

Oh, right. Tracy McGrady.

What does it matter if the defense slightly improves if the offense is considerably worse? Scoring 20 points and giving up 18 is better than scoring 16 points and giving up 16.

McGrady
100% Overall 0.86 (324th)
23.9% Isolation 0.88 (74th)
17.0% Postup 0.83 (101st)
15.2% P/R Handler 0.81 (82nd)
15.2% Spotup 0.97 (172nd)
6.9% Other 0.26 (233rd)
6.4% Cut 1.40 (33rd)
5.1% Transition 0.53 (309th) – Literally worst in the league
4.6% OffReb 1.10 (84th)
4.5% Screen 0.87 (71st)
0.9% Handoff 1.17 (DNQ)
0.3% P/R Roll 0.00 (DNQ)

66% of McGrady’s offensive possessions comes from him dominating the ball. And you’re calling Crawford a black hole?

Crawford
100% 0.96 Overall (137th)
29.2% P/R Handler 0.86 (54th) – Al Horford says hi
20.4% Spotup 1.11 (61st)
18.6% Isolation 0.88 (74th)
13.0% Transition 1.08 (199th)
7.3% Other 0.57 (64th)
4.7% Screen 1.15 (9th)
3.2% Handoff 1.27 (2nd)
1.4% Cut 1.11 (DNQ)
0.9% OffReb 1.50 (DNQ)
0.8% Post 0.60 (DNQ)
0.5% P/R Roll 1.29 (DNQ)

50% of Crawford’s possessions come with him dominating the ball, 16% less than McGrady. He gets out on the break nearly 3x as much as McGrady. Crawford isn’t even good at finishing on the break and he’s literally TWICE AS GOOD AS MCGRADY at it. He is a much better shooter and was among the league’s best coming off screens and handoffs.

McGrady is essentially a point forward, as he posts up, crashes the boards, and cuts. Posting up goes out the window anytime he shares the floor with Joe Johnson. Crashing/Cutting is already covered by Marvin Williams. He is a considerably weaker shooter (116 fewer threes than Crawford in case you forgot to check) and CANNOT RUN.

You can hate Jamal all you want, but the guy you replaced him with is one of the least efficient offensive players in all of basketball. If you hated Jamal’s game, I can’t wait to see what you say about McGrady after a month.

Please note the spread of these dates and the number of layups.

3/16
McGrady jogs up court after a rebound, calls for the ball 28 feet from basket, steps into a contested three that misses.

3/9
Prince leads break after rebound, kicks ball out, ball gets swung to McGrady who is just getting up the court, steps into a three that goes in.

2/22
McGrady gets steal on a full-court inbound. Dribbles ball up court, launches a three that misses.

2/16
Prince jogs ball up, finds open McGrady in corner for missed 20 footer.
McGrady dribbles ball up to miss a contested three at the 2nd quarter buzzer.
Wallace gets rebound, passes ball up to McGrady who launches contested two (foot on 3pt line).

2/13
McGrady gets pass from Ben Gordon, steps into a three that goes in.

2/4
Daye drives and kicks to McGrady for open 16 footer that misses.

It took McGrady a month and a half to get the 8 fastbreak opportunities that took Crawford a week, and he didn’t drive ONCE. He doesn’t have the speed to beat anyone down the court.

Transition breakdown
McGrady: 6-19 FG (2-10 3pt), 8.8 Foul%, 35.3 TO%
Crawford: 58-126 FG (19-57 3pt, 10.7 Foul%, 11.2 TO%

Good luck with that.

How mature.