Real Games Lost #4, New York Knicks Vs. Atlanta Hawks

by Kris Willis on Nov 9, 2011 7:38 AM EST

While the players and owners continue to argue over who looks better in a suit, we take a look at what the NBA Lockout is costing us Hawks fans on Wednesday, November 9. Today Atlanta would have hosted the New York Knicks in what would have been Mike Woodson's return to Philips Arena for the first time since being let go by the Hawks.

Woodson has been charged with helping a Knicks team that is long on offensive firepower improve defensively. What I would most be interested in seeing tonight was what sort of tactics that Woodson would employ. While with the Hawks, Woodson tried to mask Atlanta's lackluster perimeter defense by a now famous strategy of switching every screen which often put players like Josh Smith and Al Horford in mismatches but likely gave the Hawks their best chance.

I have said many times that the problem wasn't that the Hawks switched, it was that the Hawks switched every single time down the floor especially at crunch time when opposing coaches were able to get whatever matchup they wanted. Whether they can make defensive gains or not, the Knicks are a fun team to watch as most Mike D'Antoni clubs are.

We will never know what would have happened tonight if not for the lockout and its disheartening to know that by the time the Hawks would have tipped off tonight the NBA's labor situation could in fact be dead with the union headed for decertification. These negotiations beg for someone with a rational mind to be injected into them but that doesn't appear to be forthcoming. It really boggles my mind at how much money is being lost by both sides over what amounts to getting the last word in. That is the reality of where we are right now and watching the Hawks and the Knicks tonight in Mike Woodson's return to Philips Arena is where we would have been.

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Games in January at best.

These weeknights have been so boring.

I'm on the Twitter: twitter.com/edgrohl

by Duff_Man on Nov 9, 2011 8:33 AM EST reply actions

and I thought the first comment would be about the picture of Woody

@Kris_Willis

by Kris Willis on Nov 9, 2011 8:40 AM EST up reply actions

Woody and Knicks and JJ and trade possibilities

So now NY has two coaches that love JJ. Question is what does that mean with the new CBA, and JJ’s future.

Look at NY team’s salary composition:
http://hoopshype.com/salaries/new_york.htm

Carmelo at 18.5M this year
Stoudemire at 18.2M this year
Billups and Turiaf at a combined 18.5M only signed through 2011-12 season.

Now look at Joe’s salary
http://hoopshype.com/salaries/atlanta.htm

Now think gang. ASG is desperate. They probably know that JJ signing was a mistake now. They need to make the team more appealing to a future buyer. They also don’t want to pay that money in the long term, just in case they can’t sell the team.

What would they do? How about freeing 20M-24M in salary after this year for next four years? So how about a trade?

Again NY does not have enough firepower to be the force they want to be currently. Both of their coaches believe in JJ. JJ in NY will be a much more dangerous weapon, than JJ in Atlanta. As option 3 on that offense, he will be almost impossible to stop. So NY will go for this trade.

What does all that mean to Atlanta?
A future owner can create a team using a core of Teague, Smoove and Lion.
Add a seven footer, add a serviceable small forward and small guard.

Put Marvin on Amnesty.

Hawks can become formidable, and NY can fight for a championship. It is a win win trade for both sides. This is the trade that will go down, even more chance of it than JJ being traded to Chicago or NJ because of the trade possibilities with NY. Plus we know NY was ready and willing to do the trade for JJ before, and nothing has changed.

And by the way, Turiaf can become a serviceable big man in futre.

by ATLpaul on Nov 9, 2011 9:32 AM EST reply actions

I don't see it and here is why

The Knicks are going to have over 40 million a year invested in Amare and Carmelo for the foreseeable future. If they make a run at anyone then it will be Howard or Chris Paul but I don’t even see how that will be possible depending on how the system issues end up.

Plus if they move Billups then they don’t have a point guard

@Kris_Willis

by Kris Willis on Nov 9, 2011 9:43 AM EST up reply actions

I am positive they will go for a third cog

Why Howard won’t work in NY? Because Orlando would want something in return. I think Lakers will throw the world at Orlando (trades) whereas NY can’t do that. And Howard would prefer the warmer climates of California to NY snow.

Chris Paul is certainly an option for NY, except, would Woody go for Chris Paul over his beloved JJ, having already passed once on Chris Paul? And would new ownership in New Orleans not do everything to keep Chris Paul?

As for salary limits and new CBA, assuming there is a luxury tax and not a hard salary cap (you have to believe there will still be a luxury tax and not just a pure salary cap), then NY is as well positioned as any market in the country to go over the ceiling and into luxury territory.

by ATLpaul on Nov 9, 2011 9:50 AM EST up reply actions

Warm vs Cold weather...

I don’t buy that. It is a myth. In the NBA, you chase the biggest contract and rings.

I'm on the Twitter: twitter.com/edgrohl

by Duff_Man on Nov 9, 2011 10:11 AM EST up reply actions

You may be right but...

I wonder if South Beach had an impact on Lebron and Bosh making decision to jump to Heat vs. say NY or Chicago?

by ATLpaul on Nov 9, 2011 10:20 AM EST up reply actions

Lebron figured playing with Wade was an easy fit.

Bosh just followed like a friend you accept but secretly don’t like.

If the Heat were located in Minneapolis, the same scenario would have happened. Fortunately (and hilariously) Lebron turned out to be gutless and Bosh just turned out to be very overrated.

I'm on the Twitter: twitter.com/edgrohl

by Duff_Man on Nov 9, 2011 10:25 AM EST up reply actions

Forget Howard then

but as much as I like JJ New York isn’t going to take him and his contract over an opportunity to acquire Chris Paul.

Interesting that you bring it up but was it ever documented that Woody had any say on the Hawks decision to pass on Paul in the draft?

@Kris_Willis

by Kris Willis on Nov 9, 2011 10:29 AM EST up reply actions

I will throw this out there as well

Other than getting out of the contract, why would we want to take Billups and Ronny Turiaf which despite your claim is who he is. There is no development left there and he is undersized as a big man.

Atlanta would have to go in full blown retool mode and trading Joe would be admitting a mistake which isn’t likely to happen with the current people in place in management.

@Kris_Willis

by Kris Willis on Nov 9, 2011 10:34 AM EST up reply actions

With new management...

if we can get new management, cancelling that obvious mistake would be less of an issue. And as for sacrificing the chance at Paul,could new CBA rules eliminate that chance to begin with?

http://sportsandgrits.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 9, 2011 10:37 AM EST up reply actions

It won't eliminate the chance to get Paul if there is still a luxury tax

There will just likely be a high penalty. If you read the conversation you will see that we were talking about the possibility of trading Joe to the Knicks and how I don’t see it happening.

Obvious mistake that a number of teams would have made is how I think you should have worded your sentence.

@Kris_Willis

by Kris Willis on Nov 9, 2011 1:19 PM EST up reply actions

I know that's the conversation...

I’m saying if the new rules prohibit Paul from joining Melo and Stoudemire salary wise, then Joe may become a much more attractive option for them now before letting their current large contracts expire.

http://sportsandgrits.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 9, 2011 8:28 PM EST up reply actions

Good point on admitting the mistake

So we’re stuck. However if we weren’t as for retooling time this might be it. If there is a season it might be a great time to rebuild if we could add a pick and move Joe and/or Josh. It’ll be a really deep draft. If there isn’t a season we are likely stuck with a low pick based on 3 year aggregate record being 21st worst.

In such a deal I would see Billups as either not playing here or maybe used as a 2 guard for a year. You aren’t going to move Joe’s contract and get back players that fit basketball-wise. All you can hope for is a financial benefit.

Beyond the cba, the real obstacle to the deal is that Joe is coming off a bad season. Until he shows a bounce back his market is even smaller and likely doesn’t include the Knicks (I only have Orlando as a buyer until he shows his worth on the court because of how bad their situation is).

by Evil Dallas on Nov 9, 2011 1:00 PM EST up reply actions

I don't have anyone as a buyer at this point.

@Kris_Willis

by Kris Willis on Nov 9, 2011 1:22 PM EST up reply actions

Didn't we bring Joe here to play PG?

and if cap rules change, they may not be able to fit Howard or Paul in with Melo and Amare already locked in, that is if it’s a hard cap and the numbers can’t work. So maybe their only option at that point would be a sign and trade while contracts large enough are on the books. I’d do Billups and Turiaf for Joe in a heartbeat and not think twice.

http://sportsandgrits.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 9, 2011 10:35 AM EST up reply actions

True but you are firmly in the camp that the team needs to be torn down

@Kris_Willis

by Kris Willis on Nov 9, 2011 1:20 PM EST up reply actions

Also on Joe as point guard

That was Billy Knight whom has taken quite a brow beating from around these parts so don’t act like that is some sort of revelation.

@Kris_Willis

by Kris Willis on Nov 9, 2011 1:21 PM EST up reply actions

it was intended as a joke Kris.

http://sportsandgrits.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 9, 2011 8:30 PM EST up reply actions

I wouldn't say "torn down"

torn down to me would imply dumping Joe, and then either Josh or Al, and rebuilding around the one that remains + Teague and then whatever marquee player we can acquire in the draft or free agency to build around. I’m not for that. I’m for retooling, or remodeling, not tearing down and rebuilding from the foundation up.

http://sportsandgrits.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 9, 2011 8:29 PM EST up reply actions

Andrew Bogut + Jon Leuer

7’0" Bogut, 6’11.5" Jon Leuer, 6’8" Josh Smith

+ Playoff-sized lineup

ReModel:
+ Playoff-sized lineup – gives us consistent advantage – size, clog lanes & rebounds, extra shots (Lakers, Dallas,Boston)

+ Josh Smith and Al Horford are both flawed, somewhat redundant, players.

Johnson is flawed and on a podcast Olden Polynice said guys around the league (ie Dwyane Wade) notice he got paid too much and said he might be 2nd or 3rd best on the team (in line with stats like Total Win Shared and PER). With Jamal leaving he’s our only shot maker. Gives Offensive Wins Shared. At 6’8 he lacks typical speed but gives us size and elite matchup @ the SG.

ReTool:
Marvin’s role >>> Jon Leuer
Leuer is a special role player because he has balance that Marvin doesn’t.

7’0 wingspan players. Leuer, Carmelo, Damien Wilkins, Vince Carter, Paul Pierce, Villanueva, Lebron, David Lee, Kaman,
As you can see flat wingspan of 7’0" leads to some special players.

Marvin Williams has a 7’3.5 wingspan same as Bosh, Benson, Webber but he is 6’8 and as you can see he is not a natural or balanced shooter .

Leuer was a college star iirc. A shooter, 3 pt, pull up, post up, is 7’0 tall and has a 7’0 wingspan consistent with great players.
The 7’0 wingspan is not a coincidence. I see him as the Anti-Marvin Williams. Give him an inch of space and he’ll burn the defense. Marvin is hit or miss.

He also has the benefit of being 7’0 tall and what does this do? Shift Josh Smith to the Small Forward on defense!

So we get the Playoff Level Defense: Josh Smith defending the elite 3s, Bogut at the 5, Leuer at the 4.
======

Offense:
Josh Smith – inside
Jon Leuer – outside spot up + post up + occasional playmaker? + pull up shooter!!
(the Anti-Marvin)
Andrew Bogut – inside

Options for
outside spot up + post up + occasional playmaker? + pull up shooter!!

Jon Leuer,
~~Al Horford~~, outside spot up + post up + occasional playmaker? + dribble and pull up *
~~Marvin Williams~~, outside spot up + post up + occasional playmaker? + dribble and pull up *
~~Damien Wilkins~~, outside spot up + post up + occasional playmaker? + dribble and pull up *
~~Josh Smith~~ outside spot up + post up + occasional playmaker? + dribble and pull up *

Oh yeah and we get that Andrew Bogut guy.
====

Andrew Bogut * Jon Leuer * Josh Smith * Joe Johnson * Jeff Teague *
Zaza Pachulia * Keith Benson * Malcolm Thomas * Marvin Williams * Kirk Hinrich *

inj. reserve: Pape Sy, Jason Collins

1958, the Hawks again advanced to the NBA Finals where they avenged their previous year's defeat against the Boston Celtics. Bob Pettit scored 50 points in Game 6 in front of a crowd of 10,218 in St. Louis. The victory gave the Hawks their first and only NBA Championship.

by PointGuardSlim on Nov 16, 2011 6:03 PM EST up reply actions

On second thought I am not going to debate this anymore as there is nothing left to be said

The view that we should tear it apart and spend the next few years in the lottery is a failed scheme unless you hit the jackpot. That is why it is called a lottery. When your number finally does come up you have to hope that the right player is there and that it isn’t a Kyrie Irving.

The Cavaliers are going to spend the next few years in the lottery and unless they get lucky and capture a Durant like talent next year or the year after they will be just like the Hawks. A good team that isn’t good enough to win a championship.

@Kris_Willis

by Kris Willis on Nov 9, 2011 1:29 PM EST up reply actions