Joe Johnson is not Dwyane Wade (or Paul Pierce, Vince Carter, et al.)
by The Human Highlight Blog on Jul 8, 2010 2:00 AM EDT
69 comments
Hey look, what's done is (almost) done.
We've done more than our share to say that, in a basketball decision vacuum, we're not in favor of the deal. Others have, too.
I am ready to hunker down and root like Heck for the Hawks and make the most out of what Joe Johnson and the team can provide.
Others have a more pragmatic look, and maybe more wait and seeish...certainly not as fatalist as I.
Consider:
Lang Whitaker makes his point.
SI's Ian Thomsen states his case.is
And our friend, the AJC's Mark Bradley defends it today as well.
More after the jump----
Still, can I make a deal with these folks? If I promise not to be a royal whiner about this for the next six seasons or, at least as Lang nearly promised, we're able to trade the deal before it's up, can we agree on one thing moving forward, a point that has been made in a few places.
I'm not picking on any one of these folks, per se, but I it's a point that has been made so often, people begin to believe it's value, but it's not applicable here.
So it goes something like this:
"Joe Johnson is only 28...what makes you think he's going to go so bad, so fast? Look at Paul Pierce, Vince Carter, Ray Allen, guys like that."
And this one, too: "Joe is only a little older than Dwyane Wade (six months)...you predicting a fall off for him (Wade), too?"
Well, I thought, maybe it's a good point. OK, let's look:
Here is a look at all (5) subjects, through the looking glass of the awesome basketball-reference.com.
First, let's look at their stats through their Age 28 season:
Now let's look at the Age 28 year in particular:
Looking at these numbers, Johnson is clearly in the rear of this particular train.
Now, looking forward, let's see how things have gone for Carter, Pierce, and Allen since that Age 28 season:
All 3 players have experienced a falling down at least one level of production since their Age 28 season and, in Allen case, now that he is 34, which is where Joe's contract ends, it seems he's fallen another level.
What about Wade? Let's revisit Kevin Pelton's analysis of the current free agent crop for some futuristic projections of Wade. Pelton sees Wade dropping down in Win Shares considerably, losing 35 percent of his production by age 31 season, not immune to the effects of aging.
The difference is, between these players and Johnson, is that they all started at a production level at least one higher, and in Wade's case, much higher than Joe has established through his Age 28 season.
Pelton says this:
Then there's Johnson. His numbers look better now than they did in February because WARP 2 is more favorable to wing players. Still, Johnson is expected to heavily decline by the 2012-13 season, when he'll be 30. That will put him only halfway through the six-year contract Atlanta reportedly offered him yesterday. No matter the metric you use, second-tier wings have aged very poorly, and a long-term contract for Johnson could be a disaster for the Hawks. It's not unreasonable to suggest that within a couple of seasons we will see Johnson's contract as the single worst in the entire NBA because of its cost and its length.
I'll be pulling for Joe to beat the odds...after all, he's coming back, we're likely to have him for the duration of his contract, so why not hope for the best instead of sitting with a sour face hoping I'm right just to be right?
I've said my piece, a few times, and it's (the contract) done, so in return for being willing to suspend my belief that falling victim to Father Time is inevitable (and soon), I want others to accept that, despite all the accolades, all-star appearances, and relative worth to the Atlanta Hawks, Joe Johnson is not, nor has been, at the level of the players he's being compared to and, as such, when he does begin to fade, it won't be to a level of usefulness as Pierce, Carter, Allen did at the same age, because Joe is already there, a level below, in his prime.
0 recs |
69 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
Some of Joe's numbers are scewed because of his career before he came to the Hawks....
Wade, Pierce, Allen, and Carter spent their entire career as the only real threat to score (as JJ has been most of the time since coming to ATL) or the primary scorer surrounded by elite players. This a time where the stats don’t tell the whole story…
Football is played with an oblong ball. Take your roundball and GTFO...
Doesn't matter
His stats only with Atlanta still do not compare to those from the others mentioned. He has been with the Hawks through his prime and still isn’t playing at their level and shouldn’t be compared to them or be expected to perform to their levels now.
"You could spend the next fifteen seconds of your life watching a man and a tiger scream together, or you could be an idiot."
Fact.
Agreed that JJ is not on their level
but let’s hope management is able to give JJ similar talent and coaching Wade has had in Shaq/Riley and now Bosh and Pierce w/ KG and Ray/Doc and even Carter w/ Kidd/Scott. And the numbers you listed only tell part of the story because a "declining hasn’t cost Boston anything as Pierce for example has 1 ring and almost had 2 rings. And conceivably a “declining” Wade could have another ring.
You would think because of how physical his game is
So throwed that Randy Moss jumpin up couldn't even catch it
Pretty much,...
the beatings he takes is part of it, plus the nature of his game relying on his quickness, power and explosion, that at some point he might take a hit that causes it, or just start to fall off with age. But like Joe, sometime between now and 2015, I’d expect their games to fall off considerably so that by 2015, they are, for lack of a better way to describe, shells of their former self.
I'm normally a wait and see type of guy
But now, I don’t know. I’m not sure my fandom is as strong as it was a month ago. At least in the past with Woody, the Hawks weren’t playing championship basketball, but there was always hope for the future. Now, unless the Hawks become championship contender this year or next, there’s not really much hope down the line.
All I can do is hope Woody was as(or more) incompetent as(than) he looked.
Good Stuff THHB
I am not sure how Johnson’s off season preparation goes in the summer but he has to completely step it up physically now. The challenge for him is to be the exception to the rule. At any rate the window is small for the Hawks.
http://www.peachtreehoops.com/
If Lebron goes to Miami like is being rumored, the window is broken into a million pieces and covered with plywood.
by redwards95 on Jul 8, 2010 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
lebron to the heat
Can 3 guys and no bench make a serious run for the NBA title?
I am not concerned about them winning the whole title...
I am concerned about the Hawks have to play in the same division as Miami and Orlando…The Heat are already improved and I feel that adding LeBron, will at a minimum, make our division a big headache for the Hawks…
Divisions don’t matter all that much really. Having all these guys in one place could actually work well for the Hawks at least in the first round of the playoffs. If Lebron had instead gone to New York, New Jersey, or Chicago, that would have catapulted that team into the top 4 of the Eastern Conference. This way Cleveland becomes a lottery team and is replaced by Miami and the Hawks still have a very good shot at home court in the first round (and probably still getting swept in the second round).
you cant
have too many stars on one team. everyone wants the spotlight, they’ll be less ball movement, and poor shots taken because they’re trying to prove they’re better then the other. not to mention, the heat will have a TERRIBLE bench
by dirtybirds233 on Jul 8, 2010 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Looking at the numbers...
But doesn’t Vince play second fiddle to Howard and don’t Pierce and Allen play together WITH KG? Thus, the numbers don’t tell the whole story. Look at Allen’s for example. Don’t you notice a drop off in Boston with Pierce AND KG? That explains more of the decline to me than age, especially since Allen’s game has always been about shooting, and I feel that if he were still the main man on a team that he’d be scoring more…There’s only so much of the rock to pass around. Do you think Boston is unhappy with the decline? I’d take an NBA title and a return trip in the last 3 years…
I am not debating the merits of the contract, for I am against it in the long run (for different reasons). I am also not comparing Johnson to these guys, but I don’t think the story is completely laid out above. For example, if Joe’s numbers decline because we have another superstar (or two like Boston) then I am all for it.
My fear is that even if Joe Johnson maintains his abilities for say 4 of the 6 years, we’ll be so cash strapped that he’ll be the only one on the court with any game…
Right on the mark jman781
The numbers above are skewed to prove a point. Obvously Vince, Ray and Paul had to drop because of the quality of the teammates not neccesarily due to age.
Joe Johnson doesn't rely on his athleticism like Wade.
He’s a great shooter, Wade isn’t. Wade’s game REQUIRES that he continue to get fouled constantly so he can continue getting to theine, throughout his next contract. Sure, Wade can probably back people down and do things similar to JJ as he gets older, but JJ already has an old man’s game. If any of these FAs game can withstand aging, it’s JJs.
absolutely agree!!!
that’s the biggest difference in all of the guys except Ray Allen. Joe is a great shooter, and a decent passer. He will be doing that for a long time….don’t see a drop anytime soon
Agreed, thats what I keep telling people.
I mean Wade blew out his shoulder already, so its possible he could re aggrevate it sometime soon due to him “getting older”
So throwed that Randy Moss jumpin up couldn't even catch it
JJs aversion to fouls bring much hope
It’s not like he takes a lot of contact. It’s gonna be hard for him to break down with so little punishment
I love jj
And I’m a wait and cheer type of person. I will wait to see what other moves the asg will make and no matter what I will cheer my butt off come next season. I still don’t believe jj will decline rapidly. he already moves slow(glides) and avoid physical contact. I know he will decline but I think it won’t be similar to any of the above mentioned because they all attack and get hacked to get to the line. over always seen jj as a guy that could care less about whose defending him, just about getting that score
IF YOU CANT ACCEPT LOSING, YOU CANT WIN.
by Hawksgirl on Jul 8, 2010 11:50 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
FYI
Wade is just 6 months younger than Joe so someone like him that is shorter and smaller than Joe and relies more on speed to get his points will see s steeper falloff than Joe
that's why I said any of the above mentioned (players) declines will not be similar to jjs
Because the players mentioned get hacked and go attack more to go to the line while jj avoids contact. I didn’t said jjs decline will be rapid, I meant it will be…….“graceful”
IF YOU CANT ACCEPT LOSING, YOU CANT WIN.
by Hawksgirl on Jul 8, 2010 11:58 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I’m sure Heat fans don’t give a crap about Wade declining in 3 or 4 years after winning several titles with Lebron and Bosh. If the Hawks had Lebron and Bosh to go with Joe, I wouldn’t care about Johnson declining either.
What they should care about is if they are able to put those 3 with a...
decent PG (Mario CHalmers?), or a legit C since Bosh sure isn’t, and then with a good enough bench behind them to give the starters rest, to keep teams from making runs when starters rest, and also for when someone gets injured in the starting unit (as both Bosh and Wade have suffered in the past).
and if lbj joins the heat that just won't be fair!
Though lbj and wade on the same team could spell disaster or it could be a threat. both are used to having pieces set around them, not being #2. whose gonna follow who? both have horrible egos and attitudes, should be fun to watch
IF YOU CANT ACCEPT LOSING, YOU CANT WIN.
by Hawksgirl on Jul 8, 2010 11:54 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Its going to just be double Iso with LBJ and DW3
Just like we tried to Iso JJ and Jamal. Except they will dominate it.
But I guarentee if the big 3 happens, 25 games into the season one of them will complain about not getting the ball enough.
by FlyYouFalcons on Jul 8, 2010 12:29 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I like the notion that I am somehow slanting these numbers to skew opinion.
I am so devious! :-)
Listen, the players around them shouldn’t hinder their rate statistics. It’s hard to ignore that each of these players declined at almost the same age.
It’s easy to ignore those trends and say this is the exception—heck, I’ll be pulling for that as well.
I made the effort to take a step back and pulled the numbers—nothing nefarious there.
I was actually encouraged that Ray Allen was similar in trend to Joe, though Ray produced slightly more in his prime, but Joe could be a nice complimentary piece as he gets into the second half of this contract.
Silver lining, I suppose. :-)
by The Human Highlight Blog on Jul 8, 2010 12:30 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I am just trying to be optimistic...
Your stats were interesting and they just prove that we need more than just Joe going forward. I was trying to point out that all of the players above we not their entire team, but they were on teams with other superstars. I wasn’t trying to say the numbers were skewed. They are what the are. Yes, we have Horford (I don’t see Smith here for the entire six years), but we need another piece. I would definitely take a decling Joe and say a declining Wade combined on one team…I don’t know if I would want just one or the either…
I still can’t wrap my head around giving Joe $120MM over 6 years. Whether he declines a ton or not, he will decline to some extent. Even if he averages 17 PPG (using an easy stat here) is that worth $20MM a year?
My ultimate fear lies not in Joe, but in the players around him and the front office behind him…If the Hawks go out and add another big piece, then I’m happy, if they sit back and cut salary (which is what I believe will happen), then I am unhappy…That simple.
*other (not either)
I am sure I have other errors, but this one bothered me the most. We need edit features!
Agreed
This all hinges on:
Al and Josh continuing to improve.
Solidifying the backcourt (read: point guard) defense.
Whether ASG will add significant pieces to take advantage of the prime of Al/Josh and the last productive seasons of Joe Johnson.
by The Human Highlight Blog on Jul 8, 2010 1:33 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
What's interesting to me
Each of those three players had a higher TS% last year than in their age 28 seasons, and they climbed a bit higher through those years. The eFG% for each held fairly steady over for the most part, though Ray Allen has become more efficient a shooter.
It’s not really the offensive roles that concern me. At some point, Joe Johnson is going to have to reduce his role as a scorer. He already does, in fact, because he’s dominating the ball and creating bad possessions, and failing to find more efficient scorers when they are wide open.
The real concern for Joe Johnson is his ability to defend wing players. He’s already below average in this regard and his lateral quickness is just going to to get worse.
Horford does as good a job on the perimeter as he does. Of our wing defenders who are actual wings, he might be the best defender, but that’s because we don’t have many. Mo Evans might be better, but he looks horrible because he spends all his minutes at the three, and he’s generally outmatched. He used to be a very good defensive 2, but he might have aged enough over the past couple of years that it’s no longer true.
It's a philosophy/psychological question really
Would you want to know exactly when your time is up or would you rather not know and live it up hoping for the best? If the ASG doesn’t do something else to compliment this signing, then knowing that for the next 4-6 years of my Hawks fandom is set in stone to repeat itself year after year is a pretty miserable existence imo. Knowing the end date and predicting the outcome sucks. I’d rather be able to hold out hope that better days are ahead.
Regardless, go Hawks!
"You could spend the next fifteen seconds of your life watching a man and a tiger scream together, or you could be an idiot."
Fact.
I think everyone here would agree these numbers
can’t be easily disputed. However, some of us may wonder if these players swapped teams will the outcome of the numbers be the same. And that is impossible to determine like it is impossible to determine that the hawks will win the championship this year. I believe players’ stats are effected by the team around them and the plhilosphy of the team and while I know this arguement has probably been mentioned before, like this topic has, I believe this is not the forward thinking we should have not knowing all the moves the hawks could make this off-season.
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
well
the main difference between JJ and Wade, LeBron, Stoudemire, Peirce etc, is the numbers they put up in the playoffs. Johnson can’t score and then blasts the fans…anyone remember him getting booed in ATLANTA by hawks fans after his little remark?
not giving jj an excuse but he was frustrated and sometimes people sAy things without thinking
And ya know, I don’t get why jj takes all the blame from hawksfans. I understand he is the captain and star but not only couldnt jj score but the rest couldn’t either. josh and al were not effective. it seemed as if no one was trying in the magic series sweep and woody was woody as usual calling isolation jj and jamal. jj has been programmed with iso since he has been here and now its programmed in him when he goes on the court unless he is taught another game plan. same as josh, he does what he wants.
IF YOU CANT ACCEPT LOSING, YOU CANT WIN.
by Hawksgirl on Jul 8, 2010 2:27 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
If any true hawk fan got offended, they need to give their fan card back
When he made the comment I personally did not get offended. In fact it made me kind of glad. This is Joe Johnson aka silent assassin aka always being criticized for not being vocal enough. When he is finally being vocal to the media and the fans, we boo him. It showed me that he was pissed of loosing and was trying to win. besides, he was the one keeping us in the series against the bucks when jamal was cold for the first couple games.
So throwed that Randy Moss jumpin up couldn't even catch it
Umm
How is making a comment about the fans “trying to win”? If he was trying to win then maybe he should have played better. I agree that the team as a whole stunk it up against Orlando, but he has consistently dropped in production in the playoffs for the last two years. Making a comment about the fans shows his frustration true, but nothing positive comes from it so he should have just left it alone.
"You could spend the next fifteen seconds of your life watching a man and a tiger scream together, or you could be an idiot."
Fact.
just sayin
Thats what i saw, proved that he wasnt completly giving up like many people say that he was. Personally I was glad to show that he voiced out something since he is known for not saying a thing.
“It’s about us in this locker room. We could care less if they showed up or not.”
I people really got offended by this, they need to get some emotional counseling.
So throwed that Randy Moss jumpin up couldn't even catch it
I agree
People shouldn’t have gotten so offended over it because it was a little mundane. It doesn’t bother me because I live out of state and can’t make it to many games to begin with. But I think we can all agree that a player making a comment about the fans is something that will never go over well and the best solution is to not say anything at all.
"You could spend the next fifteen seconds of your life watching a man and a tiger scream together, or you could be an idiot."
Fact.
so him being doubled ever game
is not an indicator of a source of why his numbers have dropped? I mean c’mon the second round is where the best tean defenses and best team offense (stragtegy wise) show their true colors. Once you get that deep in the playoffs teams will take your best option away and make everyone else beat you. It happens over and over again
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
What's your point?
He get’s doubled every game regardless of who we play, so I don’t see how being doubled in the playoffs is any different than being doubled earlier in the season.
"You could spend the next fifteen seconds of your life watching a man and a tiger scream together, or you could be an idiot."
Fact.
yeah um...we didn't play Mil and Orl every game this regular season
That’s my point. Lebron James played the same way with arguably the best regular season team the last two years and no championship.
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
Exactly
JJ didn’t change either and we didn’t get anything more out of it in the playoffs. You’re right in that the competition is clearly better in the playoffs, but that just goes to my point that JJ should have done something different when double teamed instead of trying to constantly fight through it and failing. Of the three big players on our team, JJ is the one that has taken the biggest dive in production and it’s not a small decrease that can be simply brushed off by as such a general statement as “tougher competition and double teams”.
Either way, this has all been discussed plenty and it’s off the point I was making about his comments to the fans.
"You could spend the next fifteen seconds of your life watching a man and a tiger scream together, or you could be an idiot."
Fact.
not off point since I was replying to what you said, but you can't say this is all JJ's fault
If a team plays weak team basketball, they’ll lose plain and simple. Since JJ production was going down, somebody should have stepped up. Smart basketball teams know how to shut down a stand around offense, hell college teams know how to do that. My point is that this JJ witch burning is too much and petty.
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
I'm just waiting to see If LeBron goes to Miami
which is what I’m kinda hoping for, think before y’all call me traitor if he goes to Miami, it’ll make our division look superior to the one Boston’s in AND it could make the divisional race easier and harder for us easier because we may have a better chance to catch Orlando but harder because now we have to worry about Miami again like before
...in dixie land i'll take my stand to root for Atlanta
Anything can happen
but I just feel like LeBron’s ego is too big to goto Miami. I just can’t see him walking away from all of that money in Cleveland.
http://www.peachtreehoops.com/
that depends on who they play
I was happy to see him leave Cleveland, there’s just something about that city that ticks me off but I don’t know what
...in dixie land i'll take my stand to root for Atlanta
It depends on who they surround "Miami Thrice" with
They’ll have Mario Chalmers, Mike Miller, Swat, Dexter Pittman…..
As you can see, nobody with any serious skill
unless they can somehow resign Shaq
then they’re the best team, but he wants to play for San Antonio so that creates a problem for the south beach
...in dixie land i'll take my stand to root for Atlanta
As long as Haslem has been with them...
and being that he played HS ball in Miami, college at Florida, and has been a big part of the Heat ever since entering the pros, I can’t see him being anywhere but with the Heat next year. Especially since he’d be an ideal rebounding, defensive minded, doesn’t care how much he touches the ball but will still do plenty of dirty work, big man either starting next to Bosh, or backing him up.
Since it'd be resigning with Miami...
after being there more than 3 years, would they not have his “bird rights” or whatever and be able to exceed the cap for him? That and if the minimum meant staying in Miami, he hasn’t been looking to leave either.
by Mr. Sanchez on Jul 10, 2010 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm not sure if "bird rights" can be used for multiple players
But I do not think the minimum will keep him with the heat. Unless he gets a multi-year, backloaded deal, he’ll probably be leaving town
Welll shoot.....
Lebron, Wade, and Bosh are official. What are the Hawks going to do now? I think this is why the Hawks had to sign Joe back instead of hoping upon hope on younger players. Crap, I thought he would go anywhere but Miami
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
I heard the moan in the audience....
I’m now imaging playing the Heat four times every year for six years
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
Related FanPosts on Peachtree Hoops
Related FanShots on Peachtree Hoops
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
