The (Non-ATL) Future of Joe Johnson
by The Human Highlight Blog on Mar 10, 2010 12:34 PM EST
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Clarity is a magnificent comfort. Right or wrong, clarity about a situation is its own marvelous drug, able to mask tension and doubt in even the most confusing of circumstances.
Over the course of the summer and now almost a full season of basketball, there has been a long should they/shouldn't they discussion around the future status of Joe Johnson.
Do they retain the 4-time Atlanta Hawks all-star to hold onto the core roster that has improved every season since 2004? Or do the Hawks investigate life after Joe Johnson, using his free agency as either a financial catharsis or to acquire new talent.
Either way, though it was murky last offseason, it has been made clear to us now.
It's time to let Joe go.
We admit, it's hardly the original thought. BlogABull wrote the ultimate thesis on this a month ago, ably breaking down the break down of players at the age and mileage of players similar to Joe.
Players like Michael Finley and Jerry Stackhouse, who once effortlessly played 38+ mpg, broke down hard by age 31. Several players in the 18 PER crowd saw their PER nosedive by age 31 (Michael Finley, Rip Hamilton, Steve Smith, Jim Paxson, Alvin Robertson). In fact, nobody with a PER below 19 from age 26-28 ended up with a 29-33 Score over max level. (Btw, since Finley keeps coming up in comparisons, I decided to look them up side by side. Really similar. You don't want to click Finley's player card to see his stats after age 30.) I'd say JJ's chances aren't good.
Next, Kevin Pelton also posited that a max deal for Johnson, as he is said to want, could be poison.
There are a couple of factors at play here. First, Johnson's statistics have never matched his reputation. Second, players of Johnson's ilk--above-average starting wings--have tended to decline in a hurry in their early 30s. By year three, just two of Johnson's top 10 comparables (Steve Smith and Jalen Rose) were offering their team any kind of value. A max deal for Johnson could end up very ugly.
One of the things we most appreciated about former Hawks GM Billy Knight was that he was risk averse when it came to tying the company down with long contracts for max dollars. He lowballed Kenyon Martin and Erick Dampier and we are thankful that he did.
Now, Rick Sund has the issue of an ever improving franchise, rising to new levels of relevance and record, and the decision of whether or not to retain the services of the player who has been at the center of its rise.
We already got an inkling for Sund's intentions as he attempted to extend Johnson's contract in this past offseason to the tune of an incredible 4 years, and 65 million. That Johnson turned that down indicated not so much that he didn't want to continue in Atlanta, but that there might be more gold in them thar free agency hills.
He might be right, but the Hawks should breathe a sigh of relief, even before considering that the economic scope of the NBA could change severely in the next few seasons, that Johnson passed on a contact that could have financially hampered the franchise.
We believe there are three things that Johnson wants most: Winning, Money, and Usage.
Johnson has gone on record as saying he doesn't want to rebuild again, which makes some high-cap destinations unlikely, but rebuilding is only as painful as the lack of talent around you. If Johnson were to head to, say the Knicks, and they brought in another top level talent, and there was a max contract and plenty of shots available, we don't think there would be any trouble seeing Joe go to the Big Apple, for one example.
And neither should the Hawks, as two of the three things Joe wants the Hawks shouldn't be eager to give him.
First, there's the money. There is an economic thunderclap a-brewin' and the Hawks can ill afford to give a cap-breaking contract to a player that will spend the majority of it (at best) in major decline. They have younger players to lock up (Al Horford being the biggest) and might still need to address the point guard position should Jeff Teague not be starting caliber.
Like most franchises, the Hawks are just not financially able to carry a thirtysomething year old former all-star to retain some continuity for a season or two and then have to eat the rest of the contact.
In the short-term on the court, the Hawks already have a capable replacement in Jamal Crawford for one more season if Joe does go. Crawford has not proven to be as efficient scoring the ball and certainly not defensively, but the Joe Johnson of the next six seasons would not be either. The Hawks cannot pay max contract terms (or even close to it) for production that has already happened and most likely will not happen again. There may be a dip in total wins initially, but it doesn't make them a lottery team if Johnson moves on---and the Hawks would have the future flexibility to address shooting guard needs through free agency, trade, or in the draft.
We also believe that the Hawks can't afford to give Johnson the Usage he's accustomed to either. Since Johnson arrived in 2005 and began to stabilize the team, the talent level has improved around him and is ready/capable to provide more value. Josh Smith and Al Horford have already proven this on the court, to the point where the franchise's old habits of giving the ball to Johnson and getting out of his way has become a very unpopular notion among ardent Bird Watchers.
The Hawks future (and we say current) success relies not on the shoulders of their 4-time all star, but on their productive, efficient frontcourt. To max down on Johnson would be to neglect/ignore that Smith/Horford will have more to do with the Hawks success in coming seasons than Johnson. To us, this becomes more true every single game and will be even more apparent as time goes on.
And so as the team leverages their frontcourt more to their own success, why then does it make sense to max out Johnson? They would make better use of that money acquiring talent that will augment Smith/Horford and take advantage of their primes, not a max compensation player who will be in decline or tapped out by the time they reach their apex.
All Hawks fans have a deep appreciation for what Johnson has given to this franchise. He took the tough shots, played on both ends of the floor, and provided a steadying calm as the team improved from (13) wins to last year's (47) and their current (52) win pace. He is in the second tier of Atlanta Hawks greats, with Dan Roundfield, Mookie Blaylock, and such--no small company.
But that doesn't mean the franchise or its fans should get excited or get behind even the four year deal offered to Johnson over last summer, much less a longer deal this offseason.
Have a parade, throw him roses, give him a fond farewell. Put his image on the massive Hawks All-Star Banner that adorns the practice court floor. Do whatever needs to be done to recognize Joe's contributions as a Hawk--as long as it doesn't involve a new long term deal.
To us, now, that much is clear.
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I'm not so sure...
I’ll be purchasing my Hawks ticket package for next season if there’s no Joe or no comparable superstar.
Amen, THHB. Well said, and I agree.
I’m convinced, though, that the Hawks will do whatever they can to keep him for one overarching reason: FEAR. When things are steadily improving, you don’t want to make a move like letting an all-star go, then have things go south the next season. It’s the exact opposite situation from the current economy. Things are bad and getting worse, so any measure taken can be spun as a positive. If things continue to get worse, you just say that it would have been even worse had you not taken action (e.g. Stimulus). If things get better, you get credit for it. Here, you’re damned if you do, damned if you don’t.
The thing is, it is entirely likely that the best move for this franchise could weaken us competitively next season. Signing him might maintain the status quo for one season, but it would cripple us in the years to come. We can’t let the fear of what MAY happen without Joe cloud our reason and our ability to see the damage a max deal would cause.
Don't forget about possible sign-and-trade scenarios.
Those will most definitely be in Joe’s best interest. The Hawks wouldn’t be as good in that scenario, but there’s a good chance they would be able to make the playoffs with the right trade.
I'm not so sure about this one
On one hand I agree that a max deal would not be feasible, but on the other hand I can’t see how you say this team wouldn’t be lottery bound without him. The whole freakin offense is built around Joe at this point. With Joe, you’re gonna get your for sure 20 pts a night. Subtract that and you’ve got trouble on your hands. Even talking about getting rid of JJ at this point in the season is a distraction for the team IMO. I would like to retain his services, but not for max money. He’s been very good for this franchise and although he infuriates me sometimes, I’m not ready to hand the keys to the city to JC. Don’t get me wrong, I LOVE Jamal, but I like them working as a one two punch and not having to solely depend on either one. My real wish is to keep the main core…plus or minus a couple of heads and add a new coach to the mix to see what he could produce.
Bet it hit the rim!
The Keys don't go to JC.
Crawford is an already-under-contract place holder that does not all, but some of the things Joe does on this team, mostly on offense. Ok, all of it on offense.
Smith and Horford are the future moving forward—and the team needs to shift resources to accommodate this—not invest in past production. Joe is going to start sliding, if he hasn’t already, as the research showed in the linked pieces. I like Joe, too, but it’s not about whether I like him or not, or how much he has helped the team previously, it’s about what Joe might be in two seasons, three, four, etc.with the type of contract he is potentially looking at.
by The Human Highlight Blog on Mar 10, 2010 1:25 PM EST up reply actions
you hit all the points I was thinking girl
There are a lot of what ifs when dealing with this situation. what if jj declines next year, what if we can’t find a worthy replacement, what if the team crumbles when jj leaves. Lots of unsure answers. but we can debate this til we run out of breath and still have to wait til the end of this season and I’m just anxious to see how far we get in the playoffs which also play a big role in the summer for woody and jj……………
by Hawksgirl on Mar 10, 2010 1:28 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Even without Joe
we still have enough talent to avoid the lottery, especially with the right additions in the offseason.
And the one thing that gives me pause, is the idea of Crawford and Bibby as a defensive pair. Otherwise, we’ve got plenty of pieces to succeed post-Joe, especially with the right draft picks and free agent signings going forward. I liked the Smitty comp, both big Gs with solid all around games. And the problem isn’t Joe, it’s Joe at that price for that long. I’d rather take a short step back instead of being locked into a big problem in two or three years.
Without any positive additions that is...
and we assume that without Joe’s salary, we have the freedom to possibly add that championship making piece. Maybe a trip back to the lottery will turn up good if we get lucky and can land that type of Hall of Fame player all championship teams (except the recent Pistons) had.
WOW
Did i just see an ATL blogger give some kind of credit to Billy Knight????
Agree with you dstdeelite
You are talking about letting your best player both on offence and defense go Jamal CANNOT REPLACE JOE.. He is playing well now simple because he is being asked to SCORE . I assure you his PER will drop significantly if he starts and plays more minutes and is given more responsibility.
Facts you forgot to mention:
1. Joe is 6 ft 8…At 32 /33 years old he will still be 6ft 8 and still a match up nightmare for 90% of the 2 guards..
2. Joe does not rely solely on athleticism and driving to the basket. Hence i dont think his PER rate will drop significantly. Players with jump shots and diverse games last a lot longer in the game ….
3. His role can be reduced gradually as the other players mature.At 33, he can still play a very vital role without being dominant.Kobe has more miles than Joe, yet no one is talking about Kobe breaking down soon.
4. You conveniently left out guards like Vince and Ray Allen that are 33 and still producing at a high level.
5. Joe is a gym rat and that could make his career last a lot longer .
Joe is not going to be able to guard two guards as he gets older
as far as height being an advantage, monta ellis, OJ Mayo, and maybe delonte west are the only two guys I can think joe “has an advantage” because of height. shooting guards are tall. at 6’4’’ people worried about Wade’s height coming out of college.
also, ray has drastically gone down in production. vince has dropped too. and both of those guys are ending their contracts not starting them. no one would choose to pay them what they are making now or pay them what they made last year if they were signing contracts year by year.
Good comment---
You mentioned Allen and Carter. They have indeed fallen off in their last three seasons, and from higher production levels that Joe Johnson has achieved. Kobe will start sliding, too—but from a higher perch.
by The Human Highlight Blog on Mar 10, 2010 1:38 PM EST up reply actions
The irony is that...
the Hawks will be looking for a long-term, first option whether they keep Joe or not.
Be careful what you wish for
Okay when the Hawks decide to let JJ walk WITHOUT a suitable replacement and we waltz right into Lottery Land, I’m going to pull up this blog and say, “And you were saying……..”
Bet it hit the rim!
We are not that bad...
lose Joe, and we will go after other Gs to add to the mix. With Smooth playing at the level he is now and a healthy Horford, we aren’t likely to be lottery bound any time soon.
Probelm with that is that their success is a direct result of the presence of JJ and JC
and just wait until teams don’t have to worry about one of those and start to focus more resources on stopping Al and Josh.
Basketball is a product of inter-related parts…change one part and the whole thing changes. It is extremely important to remember that. Forgetting it is how Philly, NYK, GSW, and LAC got where they are.
Well then that's where we disagree...
I do not think others success is a direct result of JJ. I think Smooth and Horford are good enough to be big time pieces, and Marv might shine in a different system and with a different backcourt.
Yeah, so...
what is Al’s best move? Maybe that jump hook moving from the right side to the center—the one that is always from the same position, and can be stopped by any player doubling down?
How about Josh? Does he have a best move?
Don’t get me wrong, they contribute a lot in other areas. But the reality is that half-court offense is THE make or break factor in the NBA. It’s the bottom line. And if you have guys who are easily stopped or too predictable as your go-to guys, they won’t be scoring in the half-court when they most need to and your team won;t be winning. Sh*t, man, why do you think the Hawks are struggling lately? Al and Josh can’t do jack with the game on the line even WITH JJ. What makes anyone think that will change?
Both of them can get better, yes. But will they?
common misconception
Is writing that Joe = 20 ppg so no Joe = -20 ppg off what we do now. That’s silly. I think Marvin is ready to step up. His issues are ones of being under-utilized. Get him the ball more (as evidenced by his play of late) and he’ll put it in the basket. No Joe = 20 more shots per game going to other players.
Calling him “our best player on defense” is downright crazy. Horford and Josh have been demonstrably better. He isn’t near the defender he was even 2 years ago and we’ll see more of the deterioration if we sign him long term.
Best case scenario is to let him go the way he came: via a sign and trade with someone. Getting a PG or SG or even a high draft pick out of it would be great. In the end the franchise long term can’t afford to throw max money at someone who clearly isn’t (and hasn’t been) a max player.
agreed
every bad team can easily have a 20 point scorer.
the questions you have to ask yourself is twofold whatever side you fall on (and whatever side you fall on you should be falling there because you think the Hawks will get better, not stay the same)
1. Will Joe Johnson staying or leaving help other players get better? or put another way, will other players score more with the shots Joe Johnson had? I think this is unequivocally yes.
2. Can the Hawks score in crunch time or when they “need a basket” without Joe? This for me is the big unknown.
ok
I think you’re confusing Joe with an alpha dog, yelling and screaming at his teammates and getting techs every night and demanding the ball. Why would Joe leaving make the team better?
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
giving more shots to more efficent players
and allowing more ball movement for easier shots.
easier shots from more efficient players equals better. that is sound logic.
the argument is that joe makes easier shots for other people with his presence. but to counter that, his presence will mean less as he ages, he rarely drives and dishes or passes out of double teams well. so josh smith and al horford might get more doubles without joe, but they might actually use the double team as an advantage too.
would it also be logical
to trade Josh Smith because he is unwilling to not shoot jumpers, since he’s less efficent at it, which leads to him not crashing the boards when he needs to?
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
Only if we're trading Joe
for taking bad jump shots too. You can’t have it both ways. Both players have flaws, the difference is one of those players is 24 and hasn’t yet peaked, the other is almost 30.
@cocoqt81
ok one is four years older than the other
And for the sake of argument Lebron is a year older than Josh. How long would it take for Josh to reach Lebron status?
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
Probably the same amount of time
it would take Joe to reach LeBron’s level. Now you’re just saying stuff and I’m not going to entertain a conversation that’s going nowhere.
@cocoqt81
all i'm saying is that
We’re theorizing on building around a player with bad habits and hoping he stops doing it and letting go of a player who hardly has any.
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
well...
considering no one is as good as lebron id say never. i dont think you understand this situation well/havent seen many hawks games. if you have watched enough hawks games, you know that Joe taking nothing but iso jumpshots for the last half of the 4th quarter hurts us alot more than Josh Smith taking 1 or 2 late shotclock jumpshots. The fact is, most athletes reach their productive peaks around 27 and only the greatest athletes of all time can maintain that level for more than a few years past 30. And i dont think either you or me would consider Joe to be one of the greatest of all time by any stretch. By releasing Joe, you freeing up space to acguire at least an adequate replacement for less money, and sending a message to Josh Smith that it is his team to lead now. I guarantee that without Joe taking his 10 iso jumpers every game, Josh Smith will easily increase his production t at least 20 ppg, if not more
ha, sounds like more opinion than fact
Josh Smith shooting jumpers is a more detriment to the team than Joe shooting jumpers.
Enough of this, I’m not trying to compare players in different positions because that’s for people who don’t know basketball like to do.
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
ok
so lets just talk about the facts then. Josh is 24, Joe is 30. Josh is having career bests in FG% (51.4), rebounding (8.9), and assists (4.2) this season, indicating a (noticable) decline in unnecessary jump shots, a peaking of his athletic ability by grabbing more boards and smarter IQ by compiling more assists. All of this and he has yet to reach the age of 25. Now we look at Johnson, who peaked in scoring at 25.0 ppg in 2006-2007, and has a very traditional “bell-curve” to his stats. That is, he has reached his peak point of production, and while he is maintaining a certain level of play now, the fact that he is 30 shows that he is only doomed to digress. If you were a franchise and were asked to invest in one player or the other, which one would you choose? i think the facts speak for tehmselves.
i get your point and take it as a slight touche
but i am dealing with overall efficiency of players and not aspect of their game so there is a difference..
Right giving more shots to more efficient players
Like Bibster or Jamal or Marvin. You must be kidding
joe is not very efficent and is having one of his most efficent years in a while
marvin is having a horrible year and having almost as efficient of a year.
You wasted no time
coming here ruffling feathers! I love it! What you’re going to find out though is there are many people who visit this site who fear the unknown that’s why they want to give Joe a blank check. I would love to have Joe back, but only under certain circumstances. 1) It needs to be for a reasonable amount of money (which has little chance of actually happening) 2) He has to agree to modify his approach to the game and acknowledge that his teammates are better than they were when he first arrived. Now there’s little chance of either of these things happening so my stance is if it’s going to take a max contract to keep him, then let him leave.
@cocoqt81
Interesting this debate has come again
And the same arguments are still given. I’m not sure if this is the end all conversation about whether the Hawks should spend money on JJ, but I’m not sure if we’re resoluting to what kind of team we’re going to have next year. Is this speculative on whether Woodson returns?
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
The answer my friends
Is sign-and-trade. As long as it’s not with the Knicks. They are stripped to the bone. Either that or go find an athletic 2 that can play defense and hit an open 3. That’s fine for the majority of the game and Crawford can come in to take difficult shots at the end of the game.
I'd be willing to sign and trade...
Johnson for Toney Douglas. Add Douglas to the competition with Bibby and Teague, sign a SG that can defend and stretch the floor, maybe Raja Bell. Have Bibby, Teague, Douglas, Bell, Crawford, Williams, Smooth, Horford, and Zaza. Add a backup F, another backup big, and that’s a good team. Especially with an improvement in system/coaching.
Dallas...
is the team to watch for a S&T. They have the magical contract of Erick Dampier, the expiring contract of Caron Butler, a crap load of decent young PG’s (Beaubois, Barea, Calathes), and the possible willingness to take back the long-term contract of either Marvin or Bibby.
Great point.
I would assume we would look for a long term solution at PG in any SNT scenario. That and contracts that end after ‘10-’11.
by The Human Highlight Blog on Mar 10, 2010 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
I'd definitely do...
Joe and Bibby for Butler and Beaubois. What else would we need to add to make it happen?
Nothing, if you ask me.
If they want JJ, that would be price.
I’d prefer Calathes, because I think Teague can be as good as Beaubois.
Calathes/Dampier (non-guaranteed)/Butler for JJ/Bibby (or JJ/Marvin).
Which makes a lot of sense...
since JJ is the younger and better of the two. He’s also been more efficient with greater usage, a better passer, and a better defender this season.
You’re welcome to your opinion, but there’s nothing objective to back it up with.
Like I’ve said before, you gamble on re-signing Joe if you think he gives you a shot at a championship in 2010-11 or 2011-12. If you think the Hawks will still have a 2nd round ceiling with Joe those years, then you don’t take the risk of paying him for no production in the later years based on his age and usage.
I don’t think the Hawks win a championship with Joe the next few years, so I’d let him go and rebuild around Horford and Smith.
by redwards95 on Mar 10, 2010 1:55 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
well
the hawks tried to build around Mutombo and Christian Laettner and the ceiling was still second round and out.
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
There are no guarantees, but at least if Sund tries something different there is the possibility of a different result than a 2nd round loss.
yes there are no guarantees
So is this pending on whether woodson comes back?
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
do you honestly think that
mutombo and christian laettner are better than horford and smith? Smith has the defensive presence of dikembe with the ability to score 20 night in and night out. and i sure hope you dont think laettner is better than horford, because if given the shot attempts, horford could easily score 20 a night also. the fact is, the hawks have a starting frontcourt capable of scoring 40-50 points a game but only score 25-30 because of joe and woody’s philosophy of shoot first, get open later mentality. And obviously the hawks must get rid of woody also to get to the next level.
short answer: no
but you’re acting like the iso offense is strictly Joe dominated with everyone else playing inside out and making extra passes. Everyone on the starting lineup plays the same iso offense Joe does.
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
Maybe they've been doing it so long, they know no other way
Woody brainwashed them if you will.
"Big Ten can have this challenge. Duke loses, we all win..."
-Marcus Ginyard, G - UNC
We could get rid of Woody, too. Though I would be kind of interested to see how Woody handles a team with no JJ.
Ahem-a good team with no JJ
Besides that, we’ve seen the evolution of Woody over the course of his stay in Atlanta. He’s a much better coach than he was 3-4 years ago, it’s become apparent to me.
c,mon
He’s had this team for 6 years. Lenny Wilkins coached for seven and had three 50 win teams with playoff appearances in all but one
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
Wilkens had been a coach for like 30 years before coming to Atlanta. Woody was in his first year, and he’s improved quite a bit. I’ve got to give him a bit of credit at this point, and start wondering about his players. Wilkens had a record below .500 in four of his first five years, too. And when Lenny came here, he already had Mookie, ’Nique, Kevin Willis, and Stacey Augmon. He went through really good players like Mutombo and Steve Smith as well.
When Woody started, we had the rookie Joshes and Antoine Walker and Al Harrington. The top guy on the bench was Predrag Drobnjak.
I didn’t used to like Woody, and he’s still not great, but he’s definitely a much better coach than he was when he started. He might have a chance to turn into a really good one, even.
more like 24 years
but it only took his sixth to get to the Finals and his seventh to win a championship
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
And he won a total of 1
In over 30 years as an NBA head coach. 0 with the Hawks.
Woody might not be a Hall of Fame coach, but at this point, I realize we could do much worse. We could have Vinny Del Negro.
I’d be afraid he would try to run ISO-JC forever
"Big Ten can have this challenge. Duke loses, we all win..."
-Marcus Ginyard, G - UNC
Then again...
His head might explode and then’d we’d see he’s really a robot zombie being controlled by Billy Knight from the parking lot outside.
"Big Ten can have this challenge. Duke loses, we all win..."
-Marcus Ginyard, G - UNC
If Joe weren't leading the ISO charge...
would others be more willing to play a motion style moving the ball around more frequently, with more player movement?
I think so
And didn’t Josh SMith say as much recently? I think so.
"Big Ten can have this challenge. Duke loses, we all win..."
-Marcus Ginyard, G - UNC
I give up...
we’re going back to Harrington and Rider without Joe. Whatever will we do when he’s 35 and looking like 55 on the floor, or when he retires. May as well fold up shop I guess.
That's my thinking
JJ is the be all end all of the Hawks. Without him, the NBA might as well contract the Hawks out of existense. We will go 0-82 without JJ. I think I will /wrists now.
"Big Ten can have this challenge. Duke loses, we all win..."
-Marcus Ginyard, G - UNC
IMO though...
lottery isn’t neccessarily a bad thing for a short time. One year dip, and we might get lucky in the top 3. You need an elite player to win titles, and it doesn’t appear we have that now. Perhaps without Joe, we can trade, sign, or draft just that type of elite player.
Cosignage.
Hate to use a Bill Simmons term, but Joe looks like a prime Ewing Theory candidate to me.
Longest Atlanta Falcons winning-seasons streak: 2008 - current
The Falcoholic · Blog · Twitter
Ewing Theory is ridiculous
New York won one game against the Spurs in the Finals and haven’t been back since. What if Tiki didn’t retire? He didn’t have to did he?
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
Honestly
I dont see jj declining horribly. I mean I know he is approaching his thirties but he does not rely solely on his driving like all of you have said. I dont even see him leaving but if he does then we would have to find someone to replace him…….I seriously hate this subject.Now, we all know this will and can be determined once the playoffs come and go. Out first round, jj and woody may be gone/ will be gone(definently woody). out second round same result. third round???depends on thhe circumstances. Ummm, if we make it to the finals and lose barely in a game 7….What would you guys say then?
My feelings on Joe's
contract will remain the same. It still needs to make sense especially since we’re dealing with a frugal ownership group. That’s the one thing you all seem to discount. They are not going to spend money like the Dolans or the Buss’s. They don’t have that kind of money. So, it cannot be overstated how much Joe’s new contract is going to affect this team’s ability to make necessary moves to be contenders going forward.
@cocoqt81
If not Joe then Who?
This is one of those things that I have struggled with all season, I have now adjusted my opinion from “We can’t Joe leave” to “We can’t give Joe the max”. I have been scared of seeing this team regress in anyway but am now coming the realization that they may have to take a slight step back to move forward again. It is a lot easier for me to put my faith in Al Horford but the Hawks desperately need Josh Smith to continue his improvement.
My question is one that probably can’t be answered until the off season but who do you replace Joe with? It clearly can not be Jamal Crawford. Jamal is in the role he needs to be in.
http://soaringdownsouth.com/
A lot of these issues
would be solved with better coaching. Like I said yesterday, Joe and Woody are intertwined. They have to be separated. If we keep Joe, then Woody needs to go. If we keep Woody then Joe needs to go.
@cocoqt81
I almost get the feeling that there is no splitting the two. At this point, if we can’t bring Joe back for a lot less than the max then I think it is time to look for a head coach too. I am going to throw a name out there and stand back. What would we think about Josh Childress as the starting SG with Jamal coming off the bench? I don’t even know how I feel about that myself. It is something that if Joe and or Woody were gone I could see as a possibility.
http://soaringdownsouth.com/
by SoaringdnSouth on Mar 10, 2010 3:24 PM EST up reply actions
I like it and think it would work
Lets do this.
"Big Ten can have this challenge. Duke loses, we all win..."
-Marcus Ginyard, G - UNC
The new coach...
might be the best move we make, regardless of Joe. That said, I’m still adamently against committing over $50 million to Joe for the life of a deal.
Agreed
Now get in my van, I haz candies!
"Big Ten can have this challenge. Duke loses, we all win..."
-Marcus Ginyard, G - UNC
Chill could be returned,...
and he’d be a great addition to the rotation. We can add through the draft. There’s Cenk Akyol and another EURO who could possibly help. Ray Allen might be a nice fit on a one or two year deal if he can be cheaper. He’s a better passer and shooter than Joe, and if you match him with Teague that isn’t a huge problem defensively. Ginobili would also be nice for a reasonable price. I wouldn’t want to offer too much with his injuries, although I can’t see him leaving the Spurs. Stephen Jackson could produce similarly, and Mike Miller would be a nice cheap option until Crawford comes off the books in 2011 and we target a bigger name. There’s D Wade who’d be Joe, but better. Josh Howard or Michael Redd could fit, although both have their problems. Who knows what would be available in a sign and trade, maybe Toney Douglas, Kirk Hinrich, among others. Raja Bell is a free agent, as is Anthony Morrow and Rudy Gay.
See the link…
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=FreeAgents-10-11
There are quite a few more attractive options (meaning younger to grow with Horf and Smooth) that could be added in this summer or the next. And they wouldn’t be as likely to decline over time while on such a large money deal.
oooohhhhhhh
You mentioned Anthony Marrow therefore you win the interwebs!
"Big Ten can have this challenge. Duke loses, we all win..."
-Marcus Ginyard, G - UNC
Anthony Morrow could be a good fit...
probably cheap, potential to improve, adds a solid shooter. Add him and Raja Bell, that wouldn’t be bad and still leave money for 2011.
The thing with that is
I think it would require an entire philosophy change on offense, which in effect would mandate that Woody be let go or bring in someone who knows something about running an offense. If we brought Morrow in, then I say we have to shift the PG to Teague and then we would actually have a viable dribble-drive offenseive five on the floor.
omg, an offense that plays inside-out…..I think I just wet myself.
"Big Ten can have this challenge. Duke loses, we all win..."
-Marcus Ginyard, G - UNC
offensive*
Mmmm, yes preaze
"Big Ten can have this challenge. Duke loses, we all win..."
-Marcus Ginyard, G - UNC
For the last time
As it has been widely reported, Chill has already expressed his desire NOT to return to Atlanta. Please mark him off the wishlist as well as Bosh and LeBron.
Bet it hit the rim!
Circumstances change
He certainly didn’t want to come back and be a bench player. If we can offer a chance to be a starter when JJ leaves, we’ll see what happens. Especially if Coach Woodson leaves.
Bingo...
a nice, shiny 4 yr, $25-30 million contract might change that desire quick. He’s doing much better this year in Greece, but maybe 4 for 20 works. Maybe a new coach would make a difference too. Unless he had some huge falling out with Smooth, Williams, or Horf, money would work wonders.
Childress
Since I brought him up first I think I will address my point. I agree I think it is a long shot at best to think Childress would come back to Atlanta. I am not even sure that I would be on the bandwagon to bring him back. However if we had a new coach and were offering a starting spot I think he would completely consider it. Why wouldn’t he?
http://soaringdownsouth.com/
by SoaringdnSouth on Mar 10, 2010 5:50 PM EST up reply actions
do you really think Childress would ever come back to Hawks and play for Sund???
The man left the country and NBA. He has principles.
And he has principles
That is where we differ. He will NEVER come back to Hawks. Though, i hope i am wrong.
What was the principle?...
Pay me the most, and I’ll play for you. Was there really that much bad blood in the negotiations?
apparently his principle was not playing in the NBA
I don’t think it was money at all. They didn’t even pay him a significant amount more than the greek team did.
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
As I recall...
the offer from Europe was for several million more, with perks like a car and home and no taxes to pay making it even that much more as far as what was brought home. From what I remember at the time, they made it out like it was a “significant amount more”.
Oh I forget
Europe money is greater than American money. 3 yrs 20 mil was equal to 3yrs 32.5 mil over here. And he could opt out after each year. PLus a shoe deal
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
The issue was never money
It was that Childress believed he should have been starting over Marvin (which he should, then and now) and Woodson wanted him to come off the bench. The fact that Olympiakos offered him 15mil per for two years obviously helped, but it I was under the impression that money wasn’t the issue that created the divide.
"Big Ten can have this challenge. Duke loses, we all win..."
-Marcus Ginyard, G - UNC
That is because just about every team in the NBA is losing money.
http://soaringdownsouth.com/
by SoaringdnSouth on Mar 10, 2010 2:47 PM EST up reply actions
no, we actually have one of the lowest
which is why we cant afford to bring joe back without financially crippling this team long after Joe is gone
that a blatant sarcastic comment i made
I know the owners are strapped for cash. They should have never tried to own both the hawks and thrashers.
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
You shouldn't re-up
until they give you the kind of atmosphere they used to offer when the Hawks sucked. They need to turn on the damn tv’s in Philips Experience again and put the video games back and etc. Make them earn your money!
@cocoqt81
more food choices would be nice too. I was there last friday and
they need an american deli in there man! Wings arent that good but yea, everything is going up
They also need to put the Stats on the JUMBOTRON
The current view of stats is obstructed in the certain sections of the lowerbowl
yeah!
that’s why you have a choice of where to sit in the arena and the reason why seats have different prices. Don’t sit in that section again. Choose another.
by DPhenomenal1 on Mar 10, 2010 8:54 PM EST up reply actions
Fans need to send emails
Y’all need to let them know why you’re mad. Don’t just give them your money if they aren’t giving you a great time when you come down there. Demand more!
@cocoqt81
This has been brought up to Rick Sund in last seasons Town Hall meeting w/ Bob!
I made this comment directly!
...
I’ve made two similar threads on Hawksquawk, if you’re at all interested.
Comparing him to Carter (statistically, not athletically:
Comparing him to taller All-Star guards:
Its all about the numbers..
Joe Johnson is the best free agent wing scorer in the 2010 class other than Lebron, Kobe, or Wade…
Joe is the only one of those guys the hawks have a shot at because of the salary cap. You folks need to keep in mind that the Hawks can go over the cap to sign JJ because of the Larry Bird rules, but not players from other teams.
At 28 I do not think every JJ contract is neccesarilly bad…. I don’t think the proposed 4 year deal is that bad anyways.. He probably declines during that contract but should still be useful at age 32-33.. It is not nearly as bad as a 6 year deal. I think the statistical analysis above is rather worthless considering it is based on such a small sample (only 10 players). I tend to think Joe will age solidly considering his size isn’t going away and using his size at his position has been a key aspect of his game. If Al and Josh progress then JJ can take fewer shots and maintain his efficiency.. Since the Hawks will be over the cap during those 4 years, how ‘over’ they are doesn’t matter much if the ownership will bear it. Look at the lakers, they have to do everything through trades and what not because they are so over the cap, being 10 mil lower would make no difference for them..
The hawks do have a ceiling of second round right now.. They get worse without Joe (although I agree not lottery bad) but I have a hard time seeing any way that they become an elite team in the near future. Sort of sucks but thats life.
The ownership group
is not willing to bear it. We need to deal with reality concerning what this group will and won’t spend.
@cocoqt81
Frankly
I think the Hawks should re-offer JJ the same deal they did before the season. If he turns it down, he’s going to have a hard finding someone who can offer him more money than that deal. And over the course of a four year deal, the Hawks aren’t in huge trouble. They’re stuck with maybe 2 years, or maybe just 1, where he can no longer play basketball at a star level. You mention fear-and I’ve got my own fear-the gradual decline of the Hawks until we’re right back where we started. At least with JJ, our basement level will still involve a playoff berth. It’s much better to make the playoffs every year and get eliminated than to be forced to go through another 10 year stretch that we’ve already gone through.
If JJ does walk, though, I’d attempt to trade Jamal Crawford as well and see what his expiring contract brings on the open market. Then I would try to bring Josh Childress back to the US and make him a starting two guard, and build a team around Josh Smith. Over the four years in question, I think we’re a better defensive team with Chillz than with JJ (this is certainly debatable) and the Hawks’ starting 5 suddenly lacks any high-volume shooters without JC involved. The usage of Joe Johnson then gets distributed amongst the starting 5, but largely in the hands of the front court, who are very efficient scorers. At that point, the real key is hanging on to enough money to keep Horford in town for as long as Josh Smith.
The max...
JJ can be offered by other teams will likely approach $93M over five years. That dwarfs the Hawks’ four-year deal.
Add to that the likely possibility that a team like Dallas will be okay with a six-year deal at a “discount” (think $100M), and THHB’s thesis is definitely worth a second thought.
I really need to know who has that kind of cap space.
I’m pretty sure JJ won’t go to the Knicks. I just look at the projected cap and I don’t see many better offers coming for JJ outside of NY.
Hoopdata has a good breakdown.
by The Human Highlight Blog on Mar 10, 2010 4:12 PM EST up reply actions
So we're really talking about 4 teams, here
With the Bulls and Wizards as a wild card.
1) JJ probably won’t go to NY, regardless, because he doesn’t want to join a rebuilding team again.
2) Miami is completely dependent on Wade either signing elsewhere, or else they completely release his Bird rights (which they probably will not).
3) The Nets are as bad as the Knicks in terms of being a rebuilding team. And sucking.
The Wizards might be able to entice him to come play alongside Agent 0, if his contract remains, but that team has been completely gutted with no Caron, no Jamison, no Heywood, and the money isn’t that much better.
The real concern is that the Bulls miss out on Lebron or Bosh and make a 5 year offer to JJ, but they also have to contend with extending Noah and Rose in a few years as well. They can afford it unless they’re scared off by the possibility of a hard cap.
And if any of those teams end up signing LeBron or Bosh, they’re eliminated as destinations entirely. That 4 year offer we made to JJ looks really good to me. If he goes for more than that, I’d let him take the money, but that’s exactly what I think is reasonable for Atlanta.
my thought was
sign and trade joe and get deng back which allows bulls to shed more salary and maybe sign someone else big.
move marvin to the second unit. and trade crawford for a three point shooting, defensive minded shooting guard. Start teague.
that is a defensive minded team that can play inside and out with two slashers and no selfish or heavy shot requiring players.
It depends on what your plan is for Jamal Crawford
I’d like to try and deal him this offseason if we’re losing JJ and attempt to build a team without a shot-hogging 2 guard on the roster(apologies to my man JC). That way we don’t end up falling into the trap of an isolation heavy offense.
I’d like to think that some other budding playoff team might see how successful he’s been as a 6th man for us and then we could get a few pieces for him. Like the Milkwaukee Bucks for John Salmons and Mbah a Moute?
Not total...
going forward, unless we are looking luxury tax, I can’t see Marvin on the bench. Either move him, or he’s at SF.
i could package marv
but next year he does make over 3 million less. this year just under 2 million less than crawford. and my idea would be that you would be spending much less on the two guard than you are now. so the salary would actually go down. and that makes sense. two guard is the most overrated (or at least, least important) position in the nba in my opinion.
before you call me crazy
i say that because shooting guards do not provide assists and rebounds like the other positions do. so it takes one defensive stopper to ruin the productivity of most shooting guard.
I just want to point out
You just said to start Teague.
"Big Ten can have this challenge. Duke loses, we all win..."
-Marcus Ginyard, G - UNC
Deng means Marv goes...
he’s a SF, not much for SG. If only they still had Thado Sefalosha, but Kirk Hinrich wouldn’t be a bad pick up. I’d do Deng and Hinrich for Joe and Bibby, then look to move Marvin in a package for a high draft pick or young SG.
JJ/Bibby -for- Hinrich
Remember that Chicago will have no MLE to work with and will still need a big man to make a big contract to JJ worth it.
Hinrich allows you to play Crawford in the starting unit and can even play some next to Teague.
Hmmm...Is Billy Idol a free agent next year?
by The Human Highlight Blog on Mar 10, 2010 4:54 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed
I’ll commute from Jax, Fl.
"Big Ten can have this challenge. Duke loses, we all win..."
-Marcus Ginyard, G - UNC
I like this development---
And then he can sing Mony, Mony live for SkyHawk—-give the people something for their +400 dollars for seasons!
by The Human Highlight Blog on Mar 11, 2010 9:41 AM EST up reply actions
I think letting the coach go
And getting a “proven coach” (ie. Avery Johnson, Larry Brown, or maybe even a Don Nelson) would help figure out the roles on this team
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
And HELL no on Avery Johnson...
His players straight up revolted on him in Dallas.
I say (with all seriousness) Lawerence Frank.
if You want to become Bobcat, and what is Loyalty???
go ahead, Trade JJ
Number 7 and 8 in East standing is not bad.
HawksDawgas, why are you supporting Sund and the cheap owners?
This is not the way to go!!! Build a championship team based on building blocks. not trading away. Would Celtics trade away Pierce?
What happend after we traded away Dominique? Same discussion point. Same Naysayers,
The problem is not JJ. It is all about Woody. And how he does not change JJ to play with the maturing Hawks.
The cheap ownership of Hawks, wants this. They don’t want to pay number 2. Be careful of the Goodwill you lose. Be careful of all those number 2 jerseys at Phillips you lose support of. A huge risk. How much value do you put on Goodwill? Do you what that means?
Is JJ max? i am not sure, you need to keep him happy. Give him some more than what was offered. JJ is not a classic D-wade type player. He will still have years in this league.
People who keep saying lose him, have no feedback on who we get in his place? Folks, +20 points a game, does not come back easy. Lose 4 time all star, go back to being number 8 in East. Folks, the rest of NBA can not be wrong.
Good luck having Horford and Smoove play go to style of basketball. Good luck finding replacements. Good luck rebuilding. By then, you support trading Smoove and Lion for others too.
Loyalty, is the name of the GAME
You speak of loyalty
Yet JJ is the one who declined the original offer. Loyalty works both ways and he has shown he has none for this team.
"Big Ten can have this challenge. Duke loses, we all win..."
-Marcus Ginyard, G - UNC
what else do you need for JJ to show loyalty?
He joined the Hawks when Sun matched the offer. He has been through the roughest times with this team. He plays when he is sick. How you figure he has not shown loyalty? Because he did not take the offer that was given last year? i think a slight improvement in the offer will persuade him to join. Remember, this hawks ownership waits for other teams to give offers to our key players before making competitive offers. The pattern is consistent.
umm, we already paid him for coming here
We gave him a max contract the first time for coming here, we shouldn’t have to pay him for that a second time. And no, the Suns did not match any offer we proposed to him at the time. In fact, not only did we give him a max contract, we also gave up two first round picks for his services. That signing and those circumstances are completely independent from this new offer and these new circumstances. You need to cut that cord on that old deal, it’s long past due.
And I’m not saying he has to do anything, but you can’t throw the word loyalty around and act like it’s a one-way street. If he were loyal to this organization, his team mates, and the goal of winning a championship in Atlanta, then yeah, he should have accepted the deal. But guess what? He didn’t. So, yeah, where’s his loyalty?
Also, your last two comments don’t mesh. You are right in that this ownership typically waits for other teams to offer a deal and match it with restricted free agents. But JJ is not a restricted free agent and will not be held mercy to those rules. Also, this time they didn’t wait to offer him a 15mil per contract, they did it proactively, which to me is a huge step of progress regarding this ownership and their supposed tight pockets. So, no, there is no pattern.
"Big Ten can have this challenge. Duke loses, we all win..."
-Marcus Ginyard, G - UNC
Robin Lopez would be nice...
as backup C behind Horford in that he’s a legit 7’, good rebounder, good shotblocker. He’d be a good add.
Rondo, while a great player now, I don’t think would have developed the same here as he did in Boston with vets like Ray Allen and KG to teach him.
So if the team offered him 15M or so a year last time
He should just accept a below market new offer? Is that your point? That is just not reality of how market works. You offer market competitive and stay in the hunt.
Remember JJ reached out to Hawks to start discussions not vice-versa. What does that tell you? It tells me he is wanting to stay with Hawks. They did not offer pro-actively until after he reached out to them.
The school of thought on the last statement is, they may wait and see what happens after the season, and up the offer again.
If he wants to play for a winner..
accept less and leave money for others, like a bench. It’s not like an extra mill or two makes that huge of a difference for a guy who’s gonna have made well into 9 digits.
That's not what I've read
I’ve not read a single article mentioning that JJ reached out to the Hawks. I’ve only read that it was Sund who flew to JJ to offer a contract extension. If you have something, please link it.
"Big Ten can have this challenge. Duke loses, we all win..."
-Marcus Ginyard, G - UNC
The Hawks are in a bind....
Sign JJ to a max deal and we may have a huge contract w/o the production for the life of the deal or let JJ walk then we won’t be able to sign a player with the same cap space. If JJ went to NY or Chi, what SG can be of use to the Hawks in a sign and trade? And Chi is keeping Deng. They want to move Hinrich if JJ joins them I think. My question is this. If the Hawks were going to sign JJ to a 4 year – 65 million deal what is the difference w/ a max contract salary? If Ray Allen was dealt in his declining years to a championship team, then the Hawks can get 3 more above avg years from JJ w/ Horford and Smith improving and trade him when he really breaks down. And I agree w/ ATLpaul, if we were to trade JJ, the Hawks are in trouble until Josh and Horford can show they can handle double teams on a constant basis which JJ will faces all the time.
Good Bye and Good Night
Joe Johnson has been amazing for who he is and what he has contributed, but it is time for him to go. Whether you blame it or Woody or you blame it on him Joe Johnson has reached that wall as far as the hawks go. Maybe a change in coach will have the offense running more freely and Joe playing less selfishly in crunch time, but most likely not. For Joe he wants the ball and he wants to run this system or he would pass out change up…. something.
Iso Joe is Iso JOe because of Joe not Woody.
And there is no reason to cripple this franchise that is still loosing money by picking up a max deal on Joe. Trade him away and pick up some talent an expiring contract and move on.
+1
Folks can’t tell the difference between coaching and a style of play.
If Hawks had a point guard that can distribute the ball in the proper place to JJ, fans would not complain about ISO Joe. They complain, but they don’t see that he gets the ball so far out. Out point guard currently is not penetrating and distributing. JJ with a point guard that distributes, will be even more dangerous than he is now.
Joe hasn't moved without the ball
since he left Phoenix. Iso Joe is his fault because he has the option to pass and he doesn’t.
@cocoqt81
ok hold up
who is leading the team in assists? Everytime JJ gets the ball and iso’s who moves around to get open? who?
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
NO ONE!
Because they know he’s not going to pass it!!!! Everyone knows he’s not going to pass it! Aside from that, Josh, Bibby and Joe all avg 4 assists. What’s your point?
@cocoqt81
I asked you who's leading the team in assists
And all you had to say is “Joe’s leading the team in assists.” Just like many on this website you assume everyone on the team is thinking that, when you should be wondering why Josh shovels up jump shots night in and night out.
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
Pretty easy to lead a team in that...
when you dominate the ball as much as Joe does. And how many times have you seen Joe dribble for 10-15+ seconds before jacking up a contested shot? Even when he brings the ball across the line and sets things up, he stills goes into ISO Joe. Maybe it’s Woody’s fault, but as he’s been lately, I’d rather not commit max money to Joe. IMO, he inhibits the offensive flow.
for the record
it’s almost impossible to dribble for 10-15 seconds on one side of the floor in the NBA. And to answer your question only once or twice a game. Now how many on the team are not in the mold of jacking up contested shots?
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
He's avgng.
the same number of assists as two other guys on the team and he handles the ball more than either of them.
@cocoqt81
ok
there’s a slight difference between 4.7 and 4.1. Oh, he’s a ball handler much like Kidd and Billups are.
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
If you don't think Joe dominates the ball
you clearly don’t watch the games. You can’t just make stuff up to support your argument.
@cocoqt81
680 the fan
Was talking about this yesterday. What if we let JJ go, and offered a max deal to DWade. Anybody think he would actually come to ATL? We have a better core than Miami, and with him, we would be a FINALS team. Fans would show up for DWade too…. Its been proven that ATL fans will show for a Superstar (see Micheal Vick). The TV ratings show that there is potential for him here. What do yall think?
680 the fan
Don’t understand the economics of the NBA. We probably won’t even have cap room if JJ walks.
a final word from me (but not really, I saw it on a message board),
Michael Finley, 97/98 to 02/03:
40.9 mpg
21.1 ppg
5.5 rpg
4.3 apg
1.30 spg
2.17 TOpg
1.97 A/TO ratio
45.0 FG% (52.2 TS%) (48.3 eFG%)
36.0 3PT%
81.1 FT%
Johnson, 04/05 to 09/10:
40.0 mpg
20.9 ppg
4.5 rpg
5.2 apg
1.08 spg
2.55 TOpg
2.02 A/TO ratio
45.1 FG% (54.2 TS%) (50.5 eFG%)
38.7 3PT%
80.1 FT%
if you need a history lesson, Finley signed a big extension and feel off the statistical map.
so Michael Finley
is the same player as Joe Johnson? Stats only tell half of who a player is.
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
This is a reach
JJ is in the prime of his career. Almost every NBA team will say the same, which is why he is one of the most sought after players out there. And you are comparing him from a statistics point to Finley at some point in Finley’s career. What is the relevance?
Age
Age is the relevance. That’s what they are pointing out I believe.
"Big Ten can have this challenge. Duke loses, we all win..."
-Marcus Ginyard, G - UNC
And yes, Joe is in his prime NOW...
but he’s at the tail end of that prime and entering his old years. I’d take Ray Allen for 2/20 over Joe for 4/60-70.
Remember JJ style of play is not one where it puts a lot of pressure on his body
In that regard, unless something unforseen happens, he will be fine health wise for a few years. He has not really had a history of injuries, contrary to the picture of him icing the knees on this initial post (wonder what that is supposed to convey? the same line of thinking as you are supporting)
He is not an attacking player like a D-wade where he could get injured. So I don’t agree, and neither do all these other NBA teams lining up to pay him max that he is at the tail end of his prime.
Steve Smith was a similar type of player...
his last season in Atlanta was 29, and his production dropped off steadily at 30 to being out of the league at 35.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smithst01.html
And just because Joe’s game isn’t as reliant on athleticism as others, or doesn’t end up with the in the lane beatings others get doesn’t mean that 6-7 years of near 40 minutes per won’t take it’s toll. Think of NFL RBs who seem just fine until one day, they fall off a cliff. I don’t know when it will happen with JJ, but it’s pretty reasonable to think at some point in a 4 year deal at that price, he will be VASTLY overpaid for his production. He’s a great player, and a primary reason the Hawks are back in contention, but over the next four years he will not produce at a max level.
It is hard to predict the future
but JJ has been injury free, so barring unforseen injuries, fours years out of him and his style of play should net us productive years. That is a safe bet. Yes it is always a bet.
Again I ask, are other NBA teams that are willing to pay max money, not thinking of the age issues? Are they seeing something more than the Hawks?
It is always a risk signing a player to a 4-5 year contract, but that is what it may take. I think the Hawks are actually pretty close to where JJ is money wise. With the economy, his ties to the south, and being part of a team that still has room to grow, we may find out sweetening the pie a little will keep him. Who wants to play in the cold of Chicago or for a team starting from nothing (knicks).
these are the five best seasons for both.
Finley’s first full season as a 30 year old was 03/04.
he put up two years of ok numbers and then fell off completely and was bought out of the last three years of his huge deal. the hawks are not owned my mark cuban. they are not buying anyone out.
the overwhelming stats, as in almost all of them, say shooting guards decline past 30. no one knows what will happen, but i enjoy basing my theories on history and not assuming based on how something will buck history.
Can somebody tell me
When did Joe ask for Max dollars and what kind of deal do you want JJ to have?
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
3 yrs, 36m....
reasonable even if he begins to decline, and leaves enough for a Horf extension (which I’d take over a Joe extension any day) and some more complimentary pieces.
To be honest, I’m moving more and more towards letting him go. As currently constructed, this team lacks that Hall of Fame type player all champions have, and signing Joe to an extension prolongs that lack as we’ll constantly be a playoff team but not a true championship contender while wasting the prime years of our talented two bigs. Maybe we fall back to the lottery, where we might find that dynamic star, or maybe we use the money saved for Joe (or package in a sign and trade) to acquire them. But this team needs that force in the backcourt to complement Josh and Al, and imo Joe ain’t it anymore. Maybe it looks different with a different coach, but something needs to change and I’d include Joe in that something (among other things).
why are we predicting jjs decline?
All the predictions and nothing but comparible players to back it up. I dont know. Every player is different and ages differently. I personally dont believe he will decline like other players have. He may decline but not in the way you think.
It's not like we're hoping it happens...
but the man is nearing 30, an age at which plenty of players at his position suffer a sharp decline (kind of like RB in the NFL). And in addition to the age, he’s played a LOT of minutes, averaging around 40 minutes per for the last 7 years now, and he plays almost every game. At some point, that wear and tear will take it’s toll and Joe won’t be successful. It’s just a fact. Now when that point is no one knows, but it will eventually happen.
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