What to expect from Joe Johnson as he ages
Chicago is one of the most likely teams for Joe Johnson to land outside Atlanta.
So a BlogaBull reader went through the trouble to do some research on shooting guards making max money into their 30s. It is great stuff.
How do I say "I told you so" nicely? How about, I am pretty sure I told you so.
6 months ago
hawksdawgs
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there is no guarantee jj will decline
although there are good points in the post I admit regarding his minutes and stats and comparing him to others like him. Though I believe he will be okay
I think his role needs to change, though
His greatest value to the Hawks is in his shot creation. Back when he was with Phoenix, he was very valuable as a shot maker. His shooting % and scoring efficiency have gone down as his usage have increased, as is typical.
But he’s still very clearly got those sniper skills, and as he gets older, he’s going to need to rely on those more. I think he could go back to being more a pure shooter as he ages and still hold some value, but teams need to be sure they’re looking at him that way.
I'm more concerned
about JJ’s next contract hampering ownership’s ability to make the necessary moves to make this team a contender, than I’m concerned about JJ’s drop-off. It all comes down to the money and how it will affect what talent is left around JJ. My loyalty is to this team. I have emotional attachments to most of the players on it,but if they can make moves that will make the team noticeably better, then I am all for it. Whatever they do it needs to not only make sense now, but it needs to make sense going forward. The Hawks are not in a situation like Cleveland where they’re trying to rent a guy who makes $20 million per year for the sake of getting a ring. If they give Joe that or anything too close to that for a 4-5 year period then there needs to be some serious, serious data to justify it. I don’t see it. I still haven’t had anyone give me good basketball reasons for why this should happen. I love that this blogger looked at the contract situation from afar and compared it to the contracts of similar players. That’s what I’ve been trying to get half of the people on this site to do. It probably sounds better coming from someone who actually looked up PER and all of that fun stuff.
@cocoqt81
Hogwash
Anytime someone considers Michael Redd a playmaker I question just how much they know. I’m not going to beat a dead horse or even argue but I will simply say that without J.J. the Hawks will not even make the playoffs next year. They will look like the Pistons are looking right now. The Pistons have Prince, Gordon, Villanueva, and Rip and can’t sniff the playoffs. The Hawks are not much better if any than the Pistons if you take J.J. away.
It is possible that J.J. will not be averaging 20 pts a game at age 33. It is possible that tonite will be last night on earth, but I don’t believe you live like that. I do believe the initial reported offer of 15mil per for 4 years was more than fair though, but unless they are gonna get Granger who else are they gonna get to make the team better or keep them in playoff contention? No superstar wants to play for the Hawks with the measily fan support they get. Tell me who are we gonna get?
You can look at this issue from many angles
What we don’t know, if if he would sign for 18 or 19 or some other offer more in line with a player of his stature. Real easy to close the book on your best player but walking away (reference hockey star) but instead of giving up like that, i rather keep the known quantity. I do not agree with the statement he clearly rather go play for yet another struggling team. That is a statement that flies in the face of all he has going in ATL.
You know why these people are millionaires?
Because they are obviously pretty good businessmen. If you’re trying to run a successful business you have to make some tough decisions and the bottom line is going to be a factor. These owners are not going to be all nostalgic about Joe. Bottom line. They will assess his value and offer him a contract that they deem is fair and at the end of the day hope they can come to a mutual agreement that benefits both parties. This is still a business, and both parties will make business decisions. There’s also a very good chance Joe will leave regardless. Who knows what he’s searching for at this point in his life? One other thing, Joe is not an overly athletic player so I think he’s very well suited to still be effective when he’s in his early thirties.
@cocoqt81
I agree that jj will still be a good asset well into his thirties
Though I like to think that he will not desert his team so please allow me to keep on believing that:)
by Hawksgirl on Feb 9, 2010 9:28 AM EST via mobile reply actions
Read this just to see what some others are thinking about Joe this summer.
There are good quotes from Lang and Sekou among others.
http://www.csnchicago.com/pages/blog_runningwiththebulls/
@cocoqt81
I guess the question for the Hawks (and any other team thinking about paying Joe a huge contract) is: will signing Joe give them a shot at a championship in the first year or two of his contract? If the answer is yes, then it’s probably worth overpaying him in the final 3 years of the contract to get those 2 years of a shot at a ring. Based on what we’ve seen from the Hawks vs the elite teams in the league this year (LA, Cleveland, and Orlando), I’d be inclined to answer no to that question.
by redwards95 on Feb 9, 2010 9:35 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
this is the right question i think.
"Oooohhh, cat in the wall, eh? Now you're talkin' my language."
and if the answer is no...
then I think you retool the backcourt, be it with Teague or brining back Chill or what have you, and figure out if we can build around the frontcourt, especially if Marvin Williams and Al Horford can flourish with more touches offensively.
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