Perspective on 2010 and beyond or why the NBA blogosphere is great
by hawksdawgs on Feb 8, 2010 9:51 AM EST
72 comments
NBA blogs are great. They really are.They make me a better Hawk fan without even talking about the Hawks.
Over at Sactown Royalty, Tom Ziller adds some perspective to the try to win now and must win in 2010 mentality that pervades the league. It is a known fact that the new NBA collective bargaining agreement is coming. With many NBA teams losing money, David Stern is going to try and hammer home some serious concessions.
From Wojnarowski at Yahoo!,
Here’s how an NBA front-office executive described the document the commissioner’s office delivered to the union to start labor negotiations: "It’s just a photocopy of Stern’s middle finger."
What is obviously not known is the specifics of the final deal, but talk of a hard cap and 30% reduction in salary are on the table. As Ziller points out, the league will obviously allow some transition time, but teams with lots of salary signed under the old deal are going to be hard pressed to sign their younger talent against a hard cap. Basically, some teams would not physically have the capability to sign their own guys.
It leads Ziller to say this about trading Kevin Martin,
This is part of the reason Samuel Dalembert (an expensive defender, signed through 2011) is more attractive to me than Josh Howard (an expiring contract) -- I don't really want the Kings to have cap space this summer, because the temptation to use it could be too great if a good player gets shut out among the max-offering teams. Yes, I'd like a few more good players. We need them. But good players will be available in 2011, and they will almost certainly be cheaper. An artificial price cap is coming in '11. Can't we be patient?
Of course, the Hawks and the Kings are in two very different places. The Kings have one potential superstar and another high priced player who are having trouble (or perceived trouble) playing with each other. And the team is losing. The Hawks are winning and Joe Johnson works perfectly fine with the guys on the team. There are murmurings that Joe stifles more efficient players, but it is not so much when Joe is bad Al is good and vice verca.
This is all true, but Al Horford's contract does come up in two summers. The most painful thing in the world would be if the someone offered Al enough money that the Hawks literally could not match the offer. And that does not even get into the argument of where the team's future direction should be.
But on that argument, I must point to Tom Haberstroh of Hoopdata's extraordinary work in graphing offensive efficiency and usage. You really must go play around with it. It is incredible even for non-stat guys like myself.
I graphed Joe, Al, and Josh Smith. Joe has largely had the same efficiency the last four years. He is not going to get better, and the minutes his body has taken do not bode well for him keeping the pace (especially toward the end of a four or five year contract). At the same time, Joe had better offensive efficiency as a Hawks than Josh Smith every year but this one. So anyone that says right now Joe does not make the team better is talking crazy. The question in 2010 though is not right now but right tomorrow.
Josh Smith has become much more efficient with less usage. The down turn in usage also occurred over the last two years so one could argue Josh's development as a player and not his lack of touches has helped his efficiency, but no real data exists to show that Josh dominating the ball will yield a high return. This makes sense to me and represent a calculated risk if Joe Johnson does leave. Will the added offensive burden hurt Josh's efficiency?
Finally, Al Horford is a machine. Based on his first three years, it appears he has no ceiling. His chart basically is a straight line upward. Al's usage has remained nearly the same but his efficiency just goes up. I believe I have said this before, but I guess it bares repeating. Al Horford needs more touches. He also needs to be the number one priority for resigning.
What does it all mean? Well, these next two years are going to define the Hawks for close to the next decade. Joe Johnson should not be totally scrapped. One look at his usage and efficiency shows just how important he is to this team. Yet, with new rules for the salary cap coming, the Hawks cannot simply have the mentality of spend now to win. They cannot control all the factors, but all the factors need to be taken into account. Nostalgia should be thrown out. Reality should set in, and even though Hawks fans have been told to be patience for six years, it may take one or two more years of that request to truly build a contending team.
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This has been my point
without even considering the fact that there may be a hard cap. This team did not make the playoffs until Al came along. That cannot be overlooked. Championships these days are won on the backs of dominant big men. Kobe is great, but he does not win without Pau and Bynum. That’s a fact. He had years to try. Tim Duncan and Shaquille O’Neal basically took turns hoisting the Larry O’Brien for almost a decade. I’m not saying Al is either of those guys, but if you lose him, you take a step back. The Hawks can’t mortgage the future for sentimental reasons. Bring Joe back, if it makes sense financially.
@cocoqt81
Al's contract
Doesnt Jamal’s contract come of the books a year before Al’s ends? With the 10 mil from Jamal’s contract and maybe dropping the hold on Childress’s contract, the Hawks should have enough money to resign Joe now and Al later.
This is assuming that Jamal’s next contract if with the Hawks, will be less than what he earns now. Which is logical given that he will be 30 when his contract expires.
jamal's contract does come off then
but for me the issue is Joe’s desire or at least perceived desire for max money. a max money contract this summer was almost 19 million a year. if the cap really going to be fixed and max contracts could drop by 30% (or around to around 13.7 mill a year), Joe’s contract would be a huge burden.
i still want Joe back at a reasonable price, but reasonable might be even lower with the CBA realities setting in.
A fan's perspective - I disagree with HawksDawgs perspective
So now we are trying to assess value of our superstar, in context of a contract whose framework no one has yet seen. As any one who has ever worked for a company with union work force can attest, there is a lot of noise in negotiations prior to reaching an agreement. That is par course. Let’s not predict what future may bring, that is something that can only be assessed once a new agreement is here.
What is certain is neither the commissioner nor the players union would agree to a contract that would penalize the legacy cost of dong business. What does that mean? That means teams that have gone above and beyond to sign great talent, would not be penalized under any new salary constraints. Otherwise, that would mean a team trying to present the best product to the marketplace today, would be penalized. That is incomprehensible in any line of business or industry, so all the points about a new contract impacting the Hawks if we sign JJ to max contract now, are nonsense. Stern and Union know how crowds associate with the players, and would never do something to break up a team of players built from inside out.
As for us saying Lion Horf or Smoove are more valuable than JJ or any others because now we are making the playoffs once Lion Horf joined us, all I have to say is we are as good as sum of our good parts relative to our performance. If we are going to put value on a certain player, there is no player that can be valued more than JJ per his current stats (scoring and assists). Yes he gets the majority of opportunities, he dribbles too much which can be fixed with good coaching, but he has proven he is capable of scoring in bunches. JJ is one of the best one on one players in the league, and neither Lion Horf nor Smoove will become as good a one on one player. On the other hand, I agree better passing and less dribbling by JJ gets our great frontline, the Lion and Smoove and Marvin, more involved (again better coaching needed)
In the meantime, JJ needs to be signed to a contract for this team not to regress. He has another 3-5 great years in him. Hawks will take a huge step back if we lose JJ, and no amount of ownership sugar coating or blog sugar coating will change that fact. Go Hawks
i agree with the need for better coaching
but i cannot say that JJ is our most valuable player. The thing with Smoove and Horford is not their offense, but they are the reason why atlanta has a respectable defense, even though JJ has a respectable defense. However, JJ’s offense is just not good enough to over power the need for defense, and few players have that kind of talent. What i’m saying is that he does defend respectibly, but the hawks have a horrible perimeter defense nonetheless. Also he tires himself out too much on offense to be any real defensive threat. Do you honestly think the hawks are better off with JJ than with Smoove? i think Smoove gives the hawks their identity. He is perfectly suited for the highlight factory. He makes the hawks a threat on the fast break and His help defense, and occasional great man defense is inispensible. If JJ leaves, the scoring load will be taken up by everyone else. If smoove of horford leave, no one can replace that, unless we sign a free agent, which will probably not be available.
I feel like you're
undervaluing what Horford means to this team. And, my point was and still is that a team that consists of Joe Johnson and no good post player will not win this team a championship. This all goes back to NOT mortgaging the future for sentimental reasons. Joe is very good, not great. I’m not saying it will be easy to replace his productivity, but Joe is not a max player. I’m sorry, but I need my team and its decision makers to think bout the long term ramifications of giving Joe max money. Unless he does some other-worldy ish in the post season this year, then NO. You all are only looking at the here and now. Right now the Hawks are a little better than last year and that has all mostly been attributed to Josh and Jamal, but going into the summer you all still want to give Joe a max contract. I don’t get it. The only reasoning I can come up with is that you’re all scared of what the team will look like without him, but if we can all agree that the sum of our parts is better then we shouldn’t feel like the world is going to end if he leaves. He hasn’t taken a step forward, he is what he is he’s going to get worse before he gets better. We’ve seen this happen time and time again. I have to ask you all again to remove yourself from the situation and look at the contracts of players comparable to Joe and where the teams who gave those contracts are. I’m sorry, but putting all of your eggs in the basket of a pretty good player has not been and is not going to be a good sound business decision. I guess it comes down to what your expectations for the team are. But, Joe still has the remainder of this season to prove me wrong. Show up for every game in the playoffs. Don’t get swept in the second round. Have one of those there’s no way in hell we’re losing this game type of games more than once a series. Show me that you’re worth Kobe Bryant money. Because the whole “I don’t know where the team would be without him” argument isn’t good enough for this Hawks fan.
@cocoqt81
Lion Horf is the most fundementally sound Hawk of them all
I absolutely don’t want to lose the Lion. He is the heart of our team. Just as Smoove brings passion and now amazing passing ability. My point is we have to keep this core.
The smart question is how do we afford it? Two school of thought,
One: Hawks ownership can’t afford the cost. Ownership is already fragmented and is looking for additional investors. We have to do the minimum, and lose players if we must.
Two: Let’s spend the money to show the people we have a quality product and are willing to fight for a championship. That way the money starts flowing in, think of sold out Phillips for the season. Look we sold out the Chicago game this past weekend, winning breeds sell-outs. All we would now need with this core group of players is a good big man rebounder back-up(yes more money).
So Co Co, it is possible to keep the core and spend if we have to. No other choice if we want to fight for a championship. Clevelnad is paying Shaq 20M. Vince Carter is making more than JJ. Michael Redd is making more. As is Ray Allen, Jermaine O’neal, Tracy McGrady, Rashard Lewis, Pearce, Andri Kirilenko, Gilbert Arenas. These are players making more but JJ is more deserving. There are others that make more, in my opinion they should make more (Kobe, D-Wade, leBron, Dirk, Duncan,
One last thing, JJ has proven himself in the last few years. A few examples, last year first round last game at Phillips, vs. Heat, who can forget the 40 foot outside jumpers. At the end D-wade had to admit by saying their superstar did his thing. Look at Celtics this year, he has destroyed the Celtics (Jamal also key). I would not put much worth in the second round defeat last year, as I am sure you know, that was far from a 100% Hawks team that got swept by Cavs. Point being, we have come a long way, no need to turn back now, let’s continue even if it is painful. Is it realistic, only time will tell.
I hear what you're saying
they are going to have to pay, but everyone has their limits. And, too many hands in the pot is what has this ownership group knee deep in litigation right now, so do you really think adding more people is going to make the decision making easier?? The owners who were in favor of bringing Joe here years ago do not regret that decision, but the economy has changed and millionaires have been affected just like you and I. They may not be willing to give Joe a blank check and in my opinion they shouldn’t be. Joe has been compensated for coming here and saving the franchise. This next contract cannot be about that. Now that the franchise has some life they have to figure out how to keep it there.
@cocoqt81
Answer to Co co - I agree with ATLPaul
The only player that compares to Joe and got a contract recently is Brandon Roy. Look at their numbers last year. They are very similar. When you consider that Roy is injury prone and Joe is older, I think Joe is in the same class as Roy. Everyone felt that Roy deserves a max. Why not Joe?
Based on your reasoning, what has Roy done to deserve a Max? Has he won more playoff games than Joe? What happened to Roy when the Rockets blew them away without Yao last year? The fact is that the Hawks can sign Joe to the max and still sign Al. WHO IS YOUR BEST OFFENSIVE WEAPON? WHO IS YOUR BEST DEFENDER? JOE JOHNSON!!!!! .. Let me see Al or Josh score when they are being doubled. Please tell me when have you seen Josh or Al score off double teams? You remove Joe from this team, and i guarantee you their numbers( Al and Josh) will not look so good when they become the focus of the other teams.
I would argue this
Brandon Roy is slightly better than Joe. You talk all you want about similar per game stats, but per possession, Brandon Roy is the more efficient offensive player. He does a better job sharing and distributing the ball and scoring because he’s better around the basket. Joe is slightly, slightly better from 3, but Brandon Roy scores more points in close, and he gets to the free throw line twice as often, giving him more opportunities at easy baskets. If we traded JJ for Roy straight up, we’re right around a better team by 3 wins over the course of a full season.
Not only is Brandon Roy slightly better, but he’s younger, so he’s much less likely to decline from his current level of production over the course of a 5 year deal. Giving a max deal to JJ for 4-5 years is risky because he’s been a high usage player carrying the load for a lot of minutes, and he’s going to have a tough time keeping up in his age 33 seasons. That’s the economics of the situation, Roy is a much better risk/reward bet, even given his minor ailments this year that have caused him to miss time.
That’s not to say I’m anti-Joe. Without him this team does not function, at least in its current build. He’s required to create his own shot repeatedly because of the coaching staff’s ineptitude for offensive game-planning. Their disdain for actually putting together an offense and working on it shows up several times a night. There’s a barrage of plays that seemed called by the players themselves which make no sense-the Josh Smith Alley-oop lob to Bibby being a repeat case. They’ve run that 10-12 times in my recollection with two successes. It’s a silly idea that’s been allowed to persist by a team that has decided offense will take care of itself, and often it doesn’t. That’s why letting a rookie/young PG on the floor is such a risk-he’s supposed to take care of an offense that has minimal direction from his coaches, and he’s left trying to figure out how to operate it by himself.
Slightly!
Couple of points:
1. Roy has been injury prone. This is not his first injury in 3 years !
2. Joe does not rely on athleticism so dont expect a sharp decline at 32 /33 years old.
3. Quote from Van Gundy-" The most over- rated stat is minutes per game. There are many ways to ensure than your player does not burn out like reducing his minutes in practice !. Just because Joe plays 40 mins per game does not mean he will break down earlier. We do not know what the coaches do to monitor his minutes in practice.
4. Criticize the coaching staff all you want, THEY GET THE JOB DONE. They have exceeded all expectations.
5. The alley-oop play requires Bibby to make a layup in the air!!!. Maybe he makes them in practice.They must have practiced it before they used it during the game…
6. Does slightly mean Joe should take 30 mil less??? How do you evaluate " slightly" in terms of salary
No one
will look down on Joe if he decides that he wants more money and he has to go elsewhere to get it. Hey, the NBA is still a business. In my opinion the Hawks already have a number in mind and they will not exceed that number. My guess is that number is real close to what he turned down this summer. If he can get more than $15 million over 4 years, then God Bless him, let him go get it. The Hawks should not offer more than that unless like I said earlier, he does some otherworldly ish in the post season. If things stay the same and Joe stays the same, then the number they offered him should stay the same. If this team is truly better it is because of the maturation/addition of other players. You all know who they are. Joe should not get a max contract because Josh Smith matured and because Jamal Crawford has been on fire and that’s essentially what you’re asking for.
@cocoqt81
it comes down to what we want to be next year
Fight for a championship, or struggle with the Bucks and Pacers and Heat and Bulls.
There is no way Hawks will be able to replace Joe’s production for next year. That is the unfortunate truth. Letting him go is relatively easy, I may be wrong, but i have a feeling there are two teams in the East alone (hated Celtics and cows) that would do what they can to get him. I am not even talking the western conference teams.
As for Jamal, he is great because of being paired with JJ. I really am not sure he can carry the load as JJ does night in and night out. So much of the outside shooting will fall on his shoulder, not to mention, we lose the ability to cause havoc with the benches of the other teams when Jamal comes in. Out team chemistry will become so different. As Sir Charles and Kenny Smith said in their all star selection show, JJ is the coffee, Jamal is the creamer/sweetner. No way you can have creamer/sweetner minus the coffee.
My point is that
it should come down to what we want to be over the next 5 years. I would really like someone to make a strong case for paying Joe more than $15 million per. I really need to hear it, because to me, that’s fair. That’s more than fair, but if you can give me a good reason or two for why $15 million is like a low ball offer for Joe, I’m all ears.
@cocoqt81
Um, I did not think Roy deserved a max contract
but that’s just me. Also, Portland is over $1 million under the cap. The Hawks are almost $19 million over. Translation, the Blazers can afford to pay Brandon max money. The Hawks and their ownership group are already up against it financially and you all are Crazy to think they are just going be able or willing to keep giving out these enormous contracts. Oh and as far as Josh not being able to score over a double team, he can, but more than anything he’s willing to pass out of the double team, you know make the smart play. None of this is about comparing the players to each other, this is about money and what makes sense for this team. The Hawks are not owned by billionaires who have nothing better to do with their money. They just aren’t and you all can choose to ignore that little fact if you’d like. And, like I said what the hell does what another team paid a player (who you deem as comparable) have to do with what the Hawks should pay Joe? If we’re going by that then the Hawks should have given Za Za close to $60 million because that’s what Cleveland gave Varajeao. It doesn’t add up. Or let’s just give Joe $100 million like Washington did with Arenas. Or maybe they should do what Milwaukee did and give Joe a contract like that of Michael Redd. Honestly, just because other teams gave out bad contracts, it doesn’t mean the Hawks should. Or let’s give Joe max money like Minnesota did with KG and then they couldn’t afford to surround him with quality talent. Yes, that would be great too.
@cocoqt81
Let me clarify one thing
Often this debate comes off as me sounding anti-Joe. I am not. I would like to have Joe back, but I’d also like it to make sense. I want the best Hawks team possible. I want them to be a contender, not just a cute little competitive team. That’s why I’m taking into account the ownership situation (which is still unresolved) This group has not paid a dime more than they absolutely wanted too. They waited til Josh got an offer so that they wouldn’t have to overpay him. The other contracts they’ve signed have been reasonable and movable (except Bibby’s, which is only unreasonable because he’s declined precipitously) I just think you all are overestimating their willingness to spend, spend, spend. They are not those types of owners. Yeah it sounds good to give Joe a max contract and then just give Al whatever his asking price is, but that’s not reality. It has to make sense.
@cocoqt81
hmmm
I don’t think you have come off sounding anti-JJ at all Co Co, rather I believe there seems to be a major reading comprehension deficiency on this site.
Another item many people keep forgetting is that the cap this year will not be the cap next year. In fact, every time the cap is brought up, it is estimated to decrease next year by close to $10mil. So, I’m not exactly sure where everyone thinks that money is going to come from to pay for a max deal on JJ, then have room to keep this team in tact in the future.
"Big Ten can have this challenge. Duke loses, we all win..."
-Marcus Ginyard, G - UNC
by Jesse28 on Feb 8, 2010 3:55 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Thank You!!
As a whole, owners are always looking for ways to save money, and the cap is going down one way or another. There’s not going to be this limitless amount of resources like some people seem to think.
@cocoqt81
To Co-co
19 million over the cap !! where did you get that figure from?The Hawks are at least 15million less in salary than Orlando, Boston and Cleveland.There is only one way to improve revenue ..WIN!!!! Ask the San Antonio Spurs .They have a smaller market and no marketable star but their arena is always almost full.
The Hawks do not operate in Isolation so we have to make comparisms to other teams.
If the cap is going to reduce, Then Joe’s max deal will reduce. The max deal is based on a % of the salary cap.
no marketable star?
did you forget tim duncan plays there? how about tony parker? a finals mvp. oh and almost forgot about manu ginobli, possibly the most popular 6th man this past decade. sure they fill the arena because they win, but guess why they win, because they have superstars that perform like superstars, you can’t even try to argue that the spurs could or would be as good as they are had they never gotten tim duncan. this is why the hawks need to focus on getting horford back, the teams with the best frontcourt almost always wins championships, look at this past decade’s champions: lakers: shaq/bynum/gasol, spurs:tim duncan heat:shaq, boston:KG, Paul pierce. If the Hawks want to keep contending they need to keep Horofrd and Smoove above keeping JJ, thats simply how the NBA works: teams with the most dominant frontcourt win championships.
No doubt we need to keep the Lion Horf, no doubt
but there are also great examples of championship teams with great guard play being key, Magic, Michael, Isaiah, D-Wade. So it all depends on chemistry.
We have the perfect combination of guards (ok we need rookie to step-up) and front court. I venture to say with winning, our team is more exciting than Spurs any day of the week, month, year, but I am biased. I always think Spurs are boring (may be i am strange :)), but i love our flying Hawks better. And balance with the steady hand on the helm of JJ.
I understand jj isnt the main piece of the puzzle
But saying that al and josh should be the priority when dealing with contracts is untrue. JJ is the floor general and plays point just like bibby with these guys in practice and on court. He knows how to communicate with them and they with him. Jamal wont make them better as a starter unless we get a superstar similar to jj and that would work only if they can gel. Al and smoove are very important but its like jj is apart of the foundation. It may crumble if he doesnt resign( which is the same with al and josh)…………now im not saying give him the max deal just because he is jj, and im not saying he deserves it.(which I believe he does) They will wait til the post season to see what he will bring to the table and they will more than likely try to negotiate even if we do get far in the playoffs……….just my thoughts
All of the players
the main guys anyway are equally important to the team’s success more or less. And, the only way you’re going to be able to keep that going is if you allow yourself some flexibility financially. Joe is not a max player, yet he’s already had a max contract. $15 million is fair. That’s my story I’m sticking to it until someone offers me a good explanation as for why he’s worth more. I’m still all ears and dying to be swayed on this topic. Honestly, I want someone to change my mind. Give me good reasons for why Joe Johnson the basketball player is worth more. I don’t want sentimental reasons. I want basketball reasons. Prove to me that Joe Johnson at $15 million per year is a bargain.
@cocoqt81
Well here are a few basketball reasons
1. 21 points a game and 5 assists
2. Next time the Hawks fast break stops (think 2nd half Celtics game) and none of our other players are making it, the one consistent force is JJ
3. His calming influence and leadership on the team. How much more calm is Smoove because he sees the role model that is JJ. Dignity and superior skills can go hand in hand. Any new player that joins the Hawks learns that quickly. We learnt with that cancer that was Isiah Rider what a bad apple tastes like
4. Chemistry with Bibby, Rookie and all others. How do you value that.
Now you may think 15M is enough for JJ because that is what ownership can afford, and the fear we all have is that we lose him if another team offers him more. But it is hard to let go of a 3-4M increase. As Hawksgirl so eloquently put it, if we are in the ball park, JJ should give us, a southern cooking discount. Who wants to live in the misery that is the Winter of Chicago, when you can live close to family and friends in ATL. Hawks have to figure out a way to make it work
But clearly he won't
He pretty much stated that by turning down the deal offered to him before the season started. His one and only interest is to get paid, not win a championship with a team that is 100% built around him as the focal point. He clearly would rather go play for yet another struggling team just so he can get a max deal.
"Big Ten can have this challenge. Duke loses, we all win..."
-Marcus Ginyard, G - UNC
The question is
What we don’t know, is if JJ would sign for 18 or 19 or some other offer more in line with a player of his stature. It is real easy to close the book on your best player by walking away (reference hockey star), but instead of giving up like that, i rather keep the known quantity. I do not agree with the statement he clearly rather go play for yet another struggling team. That is a statement that flies in the face of all he has going in ATL. Let’s fight to keep him as opposed to give up so easy
Feel free to disagree if you like,
but it doesn’t change the fact that it is the truth. I’m not saying “yet another struggling team” as in the Hawks are struggling now, instead that they were struggling when he first came to town and that those are the teams he most likely would end up signing with this offseason such as the Knicks, Nets, etc. The contenders will be busy courting King James, Wade, and such.
I haven’t given up because there’s nothing for me to give up on. I’d much rather see JJ playing for the Hawks than to have to play against him on some other team, but he turned down the offer, not the other way around. He has made certain comments and played like he is working his way out of town, so let him. Plus, I don’t believe he is worth more than what was offered him unless he goes buck-nutty in the playoffs.
That’s just me though.
"Big Ten can have this challenge. Duke loses, we all win..."
-Marcus Ginyard, G - UNC
Y'all can forget about the discount
That ain’t happening. If he was interested in giving a “discount” he would have re-signed this summer. I’m kind of concerned that we’re making it seem like JJ is being low-balled. He’s not by any stretch of the imagination.
@cocoqt81
Well I think JJ....
..could/would give the Hawks a hometown discount as long as we are in the ballpark of any max offer he may receive ( I hope The Spirit will not lowball him). The only team I think that JJ would leave to is Chicago. If Lebron stays in place, Wade stays in place and Bosh moves to Mia, Hou, etc. and Chi and NY are looking at plan B (which would be JJ), I couldn’t see JJ going to a piss poor Knicks team. So I think we should lock up JJ, unless we are prepared to take a step back and get a replacement for JJ who will not be as good. In this instance the Hawks should overpay (not the max) to keep JJ.
@ CoCo – To me the key to the Hawks success is JJ. Until I see Horford and Smoove command a double team or an opponent game plan to stop those two like JJ , I will think JJ is a $15 million a year player. Plus JJ plays better than average defense and is a good offense player. Looking around the league, there aren’t many of those kind of players that can be signed
Between a rock and a hard place.
15 mil a year seem to me fair market value for JJ.
Any thing over that means somebody has to go. Even if Jamal resigns for a 2 million decrease, Al will demand and get the same 10 million Josh is getting. That’s an extra 5 million. Lets say JJ signs for 18 mil. My maths ends up with a 6 million deficit.
We could dump Bibby and break about even.
The long term problem grows as players get their raises over the next three years. ZaZa or Marvin would be next on the hit list to keep the core of JJ, Jamal, Al and Josh together
I am no expert, does my math and expectations add up to you?
Jamal is a nice addition
But by no means should we go out on a limb to retain him. I’d definitely considering moving him at the deadline next year, depending on what we can get. $10 mil expiring next season could bring a decent return around the deadline.
Probably wouldn’t even get market value from the Hawks, or very close to it.
ahhh my head hurts
i feel like i am in a finance 101 class :)
Like i said in the original post to HawksDawgs, i am but an stupid old fan and his perspective. My heart can’t hear now us losing Jamal too. Good Nite
It’s hard for me to see a scenario in which another team tops the $15 million/year offer anyway, what with the cap projections. I guess if LeBron, Wade, and Bosh all stay put, there’s a team out there with under the cap to raise that offer.
I’m just not sure JJ is still valuable going into his age 32 and 33 seasons. He could end up as a real albatross if he gets a max deal.
Well that is now predicting future
It seems we are trying to predict what happens in 3-4 years – lol
Most NBA teams contending for championships make decisions for now not the distant future when there is a window of opportunity. How can we make decisions on matters 3-4 years down the road now?
So much can go wrong, one of your other key players can get injured. Or another (reference Bibby) can deteriorate quickly. Again point being, most teams that are in content don’t take a step back, they fight now and try to make acquisitions now, not plan AGAIN for 6 years down the road.
You're right
So much could go wrong, see Redd and Arenas as leading examples of that. And you are dillusional if you think teams don’t plan for the future with each and every contract.
"Big Ten can have this challenge. Duke loses, we all win..."
-Marcus Ginyard, G - UNC
that is not the point of the future
the point is, players can get injured. So you can talk about planning for future and if we sign-up JJ that messes our future. I have heard that story for many years. The future is now for the Hawks. They have a window, if you can not see that out of our play this year, then I can not convince you otherwise. We have to build on top of what we have, not give up the important strategic piece. That is bad chess
Ownership does not have to make their decision
based on someone else overpaying a player. I feel like the Hawks have a number in mind that they will not exceed no matter what the market says.
@cocoqt81
That's BS
That’s a lame salesman line that agents and the players unions across all sports use over and over and it’s total BS. Yes the market does play a role in it, but it’s not the be all, end all to the discussion. Teams have to constantly weigh many variables such as the current market, the players worth through the length of the contract, and how that contract affects every other contract they want to offer to current players and future FA signings.
"Big Ten can have this challenge. Duke loses, we all win..."
-Marcus Ginyard, G - UNC
It depends on your position
Only if you agree with the cheap Hawks ownership position of NOT offering market value to your best player, or the face of your franchise, then you can make a statement 15M is enough. You can reference hockey star just let go.
So again if money is all that is important, then 15M is fair, if being competitive for the next 3-5 years with someone that has carried the team night in and nigh, your highest scorer, is important, then you put the offer on the table that has already been rejected and watch your super star walk away.
What i'm hoping for
I hope Josh can become better offensively beacause honestly, most of his shots come from easy shots or offensive rebounds. Can he score on his own? i don’t think so. I’m geussing he gets around 4-6 points a game from fast breaks, 4 points from offensive rebounds and around 3 points from the free throw line, and about 2-4 miscellaneous points. By miscellaneous points i mean points he scores by himself or off a dish or loose ball. What i want to happen is if JJ leaves, i want Marvin to take a lot of the scoring load, but with efficiency. I want marvin to be the Scorer he can be. What has he become now? A defender that takes an occasional jumpshot and occasionally cuts to the basket. I think even now he should be given a bigger role on offense.
Josh is decent in the post
He’s not a guy that go into the post every possession and get a good shot, but that little running hook shot he has is nice, and he’s really improved his moves in that part of his game tremendously.
But as you said, Josh can get some points on the fastbreak, and can beat a few guys off the dribble for the drive. He doesn’t necessarily need to create his own looks, though, if we actually run an offense. Just getting involved in some more pick and rolls can marginalize the loss of JJ somewhat, if we get them run successfully.
Of course, the real reason that Josh is so valuable is because of his defensive impact. He can carry a bit of the scoring load, but he’s a huge impact on opponent scoring when he’s in the game.
totally agree
except in the post part… his hook shot is pretty unreliable, in my opinion, and what i’m saying is he has the potential to be a complete player. defense and offense. He still has a LONG way to go to reach his full potential.
Apparently the 76ers are wanting to trade Andre Iguodola...
would you make the swap straight up for JJ? They get a better scorer who probably fits better with their current personnel, and we get younger, more athletic, and a less ball dominant wing.
You could run folks out the arena with Teague, Iguodola, Marvin, Smooth, and Horf, backed up by Bibby for 3s, Crawford for instant offense, and Zaza up front.
that's really interesting
also Iggy is certainly known for his defense. With excellent defense and decent offense, the hawks could be better or worse. The only problem with iguodala is that he doesn’t really have that reliable of a jumpshot, and his offense isn’t as reliable as Joe’s. Also, this could work out very well if we had a really good coach who could have the team work in a highly structured offense with Iggy mainly being a defender and a penetrator. Iguodala is also a very good passer. I’m really interested in his defense though. The hawks defense would be very formidable with a lock down defender like Andre, but right now the hawks are rolling and they should not do anything to stop the momentum or ruin it, even though getting iguodala may be the right choice, there is no way of knowing that.
I think this is ridiculous
Everyone who plays professional basketball wants to get paid. Anybody who works wants to get paid. Who are we to say 15 mil is enough for JJ? If the owners man up and want a Lebron, a Wade, a Bosh, or whoever to be that catalyst, fine by me. But I think we are demonizing a great player just because he turned down an offer that can easily be brought back up come off season. So now everyone’s trying to paint a negative picture of him just because he’s doing what any of us would have done.
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
Who's demonizing him?
I’ve only heard questions about whether the Hawks would be making the right decision to pay him more than $15 million per year, which he’s already turned down. Perhaps some of that will depend on what happens in the playoffs this year.
If someone offers him more, do the Hawks match it? I don’t think so, but I don’t think he WILL be offered more. This free agency period could really drag on quite a while. The teams that are bidding for Wade/LeBron/Bosh will be the only ones to have cash to pay any more, and they’re going to have to wait until those guys sign in order to make their offer.
Well said
That is exact point. Because the cheap owners who just lost their hockey star because of the same games, say JJ is 15M, folks think that is his worth. The market absolutely sets the price. The rest is up to the Hawks to either man up, or let him go.
The market set the price for Reshard Lewis...
was it worth it? It set the price for Jon Koncak, Jim McIlvaine, Greg Ostertag, and others too. Doesn’t mean they were worth what the market said they were worth.
All valid points :)
Regardless, one has to make the decision one has to make at the time for the betterment of the team. Hindsight makes the decision not look smart, but at the time, who knew. Ok on Koncak I take it back – lol. Based on current facts, and JJ performance, his market price demands a higher offer than what Hawks have made him. That is cost of doing business, or else, we never pay for really good players. Very few LeBrons and D-wades around that one can have and is a no brainer. Point being, I would not put JJ in that category of players you named.
Reshard Lewis would be in the same category as JJ to me...
great player, very talented, and JJ may be better, but the overall value of the deal doesn’t equal the player’s value. That’s not to say Johnson isn’t a valuable player, because he certainly is, but will he be worth max money 2 or 3 years from now as he starts to slow down?
i would not put those two in the same category
Rashard Lewis is a complementary player. JJ is the key player for his team. If you mean the contracts, that is a bad contract for Orlando. Here is who I compare JJ to. Joe Dumars. quiet, scorer, just goes about and does his work. That is JJ. JJ scores in bunches, all i see Rashard do is put outside jumpers up. The JJ floater is a thing of beauty and he can post players as soon as there is a height disadvantage. Also they play different positions. Again no comparison in the value each brings to his team. As for 2-3 years from now argument, i don’t know. all i know, is that Hawks have a window with him now. We need another good defensive big man, and then can contend for a championship. Really believe that. Hence why even if he slows down (and we are predicting future) it is worth it.
If you think back about the risks the Hawks have taken in their past, there was a time with our deepest team ever, we traded for Moses (at the end of his career) and Reggie Theus(in the same boat). That HAwks team was already loaded with talent. But they took a risk with great ownership, to go for a championship. As you may know that did not work out, the chemistry thing just was not there, and Moses was already in decline. But the point is, the team knew it had a window, and it took a chance. That is what it takes to win in this league. Incrementally building and then chickening out if the cost becomes too much, will never win us the big trophy.
So we have to use this window and go for it. In my opinion, no time to ponder what may happen 2-3 years down the road when JJ may be in decline.
hmm
If you’re only concern is this “window” and maintain a win-now mindset, then you are essentially saying that you were fine with the previous decade of futility. You are, in essence, saying that you are okay with the Hawks possibly not having the means to keep the young core of this team in tact for the next five plus years just for the slight chance that they would make the finals in the next two years.
As a fan of the Hawks, I can not and will not agree with this. One player is not greater than the team and sometimes you have to sacrifice the Queen (JJ) to save the King (The Hawks). For me, it’s very simple. JJ was offered a great deal before the season and he turned it down. That’s on him, not the Hawks, and most definitely not on the fans. You keep bringing up the recent Thrasher player yet you have failed to mention the deal that was offered to him by the ASG. Obviously $15mil plus per for any player is chump change in your eyes. The ASG has lost an average of $30mil a year since buying the Hawks and the Thrashers yet you believe they should spend more than that much a year on two players.
What’s even funnier is that some have called Childress greedy for taking the money from overseas but yet have no problem with JJ doing the same now. Amazing.
"Big Ten can have this challenge. Duke loses, we all win..."
-Marcus Ginyard, G - UNC
Not so fast
Keeping the queen now, does not mean not having a future 2-3 years down the road, if JJ goes into decline. You tinker, you work, you continue to adjust. That is good management. Continuous work to stay in the championship hunt. Look at Lakers, they tinker constantly. Get Shaq from Orlando, win championships, trade him. Get Pau Gasol win again. Get Artest, and they are in thick of it. What you mention relative to Hawks recent history, forgets one major difference. Hawks went nuclear intentionally. Essentially they got rid of any player with skills worth contending because ownership did not have the money or will to pay. We trade away Mutombo, We trade away Mookie. We have Harrington and give him up. We have Rasheed for one day. We trade away Smith for the thug Rider. We become an entry level franchise that has to build from scratch with what 13 wins and as you say years of pain. That is what happened. That is not what will happen to Hawks if they just adjust for when/if JJ goes into decline.
As for this ownership, you defend them, and you say they offered good contract offers to JJ and Hockey star that they did not accept, so it is on the players. That is a cop out. The ownership needs to work to keep the Queen pieces. Not by offering them barely in the ball park salary offers that both stars reject. Is that not strange to you that in both franchises our Queen pieces reject the offer? That tells me the offer is not sufficient. 15M for me is lot(heck 1M for me is a lot – lol), but that is not they point, the point is being market competitive. As for ownership losses, did the ownership not sign on the dotted line the day they bought this team? They are in the big leagues, not in CBA or minor league hockey. They are in a great city that will support winning basketball, I am old enough to have seen it. If they can’t stand the heat get out of the kitchen. As for their financial position, I have zero sympathy because they were screwed up to begin with and they took over. Ownership has a responsibility to provide us a good quality product, and not cry uncle once things get heated.
I still hurt losing Childress and having him called a utility player by a certain someone. A different topic. But time makes me forgetful these days :)
think about this for a minute then
Could letting JJ walk not be a form of tinkering? Setting aside the money issue for a moment, is it not conceivable that Sund and the ASG feel like they have plenty of pieces outside of JJ that would allow them to still be competitive for the next five or more years? I think that it’s completely possible to think that way.
Back to the money issue and ownership here. The players rejecting those offers and that decision being laid on their heads is not a cop out and I am most definitely not defending the ASG so much as I am understanding of their situation. I by no means agree with many of the things that the ASG do and overall think they are a horrible ownership group, but understanding the economics of the issue at hand I can do without bias. You are looking at these two offers as isolated and independent things and are projecting them as being some kind of low-ball offer by the ownership. The reality is that these two contract offers are tied to each other just as they are tied to the budget of their repective franchise and the budget of the ASG as a whole. All of these things affect each other and looking at it in any other manner is naive.
Has the thought ever crossed your mind that these contract offers aren’t simpe low-ball offers, but yet are close to the limit of what the ASG can offer and still sustain two competitive franchises in a city where there isn’t a consistent fanbase to support them? Saying that “this is the big leagues” is the real cop out. How many people or groups own multiple pro level franchises? Not many and those that do are much more financially stable and ‘loaded’ than the ASG. Here’s one for you; this is big-boy business, not Monopoly.
No offense, but I don’t believe you are grasping the full picture and what it takes to run not one, but two separate pro sports franchises.
"Big Ten can have this challenge. Duke loses, we all win..."
-Marcus Ginyard, G - UNC
I'm all for Joe getting the most money he can get
I just don’t think the Hawks should give him more than $15 million per. I’m not demonizing him at all.
@cocoqt81
I hear you.
I also want whats best for the team. If paying Joe that much hurts the teams ability to keep a few other key young players, it may not be the best decision in the long run despite how much Joe has done for the team and the city. It is a business after all and Joe clearly understands that.
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