The Merits Of Zaza

by Jesse28 on Nov 16, 2010 11:08 AM EST

(The editorial staff has seen fit to promote this post from the FanPosts area due to its relevant content)

Recently there has been some discussion on the value of Zaza versus Collins, much of which was driven by the fact that the Hawks lack sufficient depth at the SF position thus somewhat forcing Larry Drew to go big for the few games Williams and Evans were out (editor's note: Really? There has? I need to take less vacations). While I, myself, am in favor of Zaza getting the nod over Collins should we need to go big again, others have stated that Zaza provides nothing on defense or lacks the skills needed to handle the low post effectively. I wanted to get this up during the discussion, but things (cough, work, cough) conspired against me.

Below are a few numbers I pulled from Basketball Reference and HoopData. I hope to illustrate the value of Zaza relative to the value of Collins from a purely unbiased data point of view. Plain and simple, these are the numbers and it's up to the reader to decide what they want to take from them. Let's jump!

Quickly, Zaza is easily better than Collins in just about every category that exists. Zaza's PER is 16.7 to Collins' 2.4. WS has it 10.6 to -.063 in favor of Zaza. Zaza's ORtg is 123 to Collins' 83. DRtg is 106 to 112. eFG%, TS%, STL%, BLK%, TOV%, etc, etc. The list goes on. About the only thing Collins has over Zaza is AST% and AR, leading 6.7 - 4.8 and 14.3 - 7.4 respectively.

Rebounding came up in previous discussions so let's look at those. ORB% is 10.7 - 2, DRB% is 18.3 - 8.7, TRB% is 14.8 - 5.6, all in favor of Zaza. For those that like things in simple Per Game values, that's 1.5 - 0.2 ORB, 2.8 - 0.8 DRB, and 4.3 - 1 TRB per game.

Essentially, no matter how you like your numbers, served old school with a stout, tempo free with a double shot of whiskey, or advanced with a cool glass of Riesling, there is nothing to justify starting Collins, or even playing him, over or before Zaza. In fact, I'd be willing to bet that because Zaza's game is so profoundly ugly and that Collins game is so non-existent, that it fools people into thinking that Collins played a great game compared to Zaza. If it were only a few categories, then maybe there'd be something more to it, but with so many things falling in Zaza's favor, it makes it extremely difficult to argue for Collins. Well, Collins doesn't foul as often, so I guess there's that...

Here's the numbers I mined from the two sites linked above so you don't have to go anywhere. Note, view in wide-mode to see full extent of the tables. Enjoy!

B-Ref
PER GAME
Player	FG%	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
Zaza Pachulia	0.639	0.81	1.5	2.8	4.3	0.5	0.4	0.5	1.4	2.8	6.9
Jason Collins	0.545	1	0.2	0.8	1	0.5	0	0.2	1	1.7	2.3

PER 36
Player	FG%	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
Zaza Pachulia	0.639	0.81	3	5.9	9	1.1	0.8	1	2.9	5.9	14.5
Jason Collins	0.545	1	0.6	2.8	3.4	1.7	0	0.6	3.4	5.6	7.9

Advanced
Player	PER	TS%	eFG%	ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	USG%
Zaza Pachulia	16.3	0.73	0.639	10.7	18.3	14.8	4.8	1.1	1.9	22.3	16.5
Jason Collins	2.4	0.59	0.545	2	8.7	5.6	6.7	0	1.1	33.6	12.9

Player	ORtg	DRtg	OWS	DWS	WS	WS/48
Zaza Pachulia	123	106	0.5	0.2	0.7	0.17
Jason Collins	83	112	-0.1	0	-0.1	-0.04

Hoopdata
PER GAME
League Average	USG	TS%	%Ast	AR	TOR	ORR	DRR	TRR	EFF	WS	AWS	PER	APER
League Average	15.94	53.9	57	10.64	16.89	9.5	19.5	14.5	8.6	3.9	2.12	11.38	11.3
Player Name	USG	TS%	%Ast	AR	TOR	ORR	DRR	TRR	EFF	WS	AWS	PER	APER
Jason Collins	13.04	58.9	83.3	14.37	28.74	2	8.6	5.6	2.17	-0.17	-0.55	2.49	3.35
Zaza Pachulia	16.3	75.8	69.6	7.41	22.22	11.5	18.4	15.2	9.8	4.75	2.58	16.67	16.94

PER 40
League Average	USG	TS%	%Ast	AR	TOR	ORR	DRR	TRR	EFF	WS	AWS	PER	APER
League Average	15.94	53.9	57	10.64	16.89	9.5	19.5	14.5	17.3	7.37	3.4	11.38	11.3
Player	USG	TS%	%Ast	AR	TOR	ORR	DRR	TRR	EFF	WS	AWS	PER	APER
Jason Collins	13.04	58.9	83.3	14.37	28.74	2	8.6	5.6	8.13	-0.63	-2.06	2.49	3.35
Zaza Pachulia	16.3	75.8	69.6	7.41	22.22	11.5	18.4	15.2	21.9	10.61	5.75	16.67	16.94

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Comments

Great work, Jesse

Though hopefully the folks you are referring to are simply residual haunts in your hardware. Surely nobody really believes Jason Collins (or Josh Powell, for that matter) is a more efficient, productive player than Zaza.

Ummm…right?

by The Human Highlight Blog on Nov 16, 2010 9:48 AM EST reply actions

I'm not sure

While most of the discussion was contained within one thread, it seemed evident to me that there were people who really believe Collins was better than Zaza, enough so that I have had this on my mind since last week.

"Everybody talks about SEC speed. The 27 fastest guys at the (NFL) combine, how many of them were from the SEC? Three. But if you say it enough, everybody will believe it."
-CPJ

"You could spend the next fifteen seconds of your life watching a man and a tiger scream together, or you could be an idiot."
Fact.

by Jesse28 on Nov 16, 2010 12:37 PM EST up reply actions

And thanks.

Copy/paste is srz bzns, haha!

"Everybody talks about SEC speed. The 27 fastest guys at the (NFL) combine, how many of them were from the SEC? Three. But if you say it enough, everybody will believe it."
-CPJ

"You could spend the next fifteen seconds of your life watching a man and a tiger scream together, or you could be an idiot."
Fact.

by Jesse28 on Nov 16, 2010 1:00 PM EST up reply actions

One of Zaza's issues

Is that he’s not getting that many minutes with the starters. Collins was able to look decent while starting (at times-at others, he’d commit two turnovers and two fouls in the first five minutes) playing alongside the best other four players on the roster. He was able to hide and didn’t have to carry a huge load on either end. There’s no questioning that Zaza is the superior player in every facet.

by Bronn on Nov 16, 2010 11:37 AM EST reply actions

Agreed

Small sample size was implied with this post, but even if you expand this to their career numbers the result is essentially the same. Zaza simply outperforms Collins, period. But this does lead to my next point below….

"Everybody talks about SEC speed. The 27 fastest guys at the (NFL) combine, how many of them were from the SEC? Three. But if you say it enough, everybody will believe it."
-CPJ

"You could spend the next fifteen seconds of your life watching a man and a tiger scream together, or you could be an idiot."
Fact.

by Jesse28 on Nov 16, 2010 12:39 PM EST up reply actions

Nice Work Jesse

@KrisPTHoops

by Kris Willis on Nov 16, 2010 11:55 AM EST reply actions

Thanks!

I think I’m going to do something like this on a more regular basis. Maybe not the individual players comparisons, but more of an overview all of the players and some of their advanced stats. Maybe get more people on to them and off the old lazy per game values.

"Everybody talks about SEC speed. The 27 fastest guys at the (NFL) combine, how many of them were from the SEC? Three. But if you say it enough, everybody will believe it."
-CPJ

"You could spend the next fifteen seconds of your life watching a man and a tiger scream together, or you could be an idiot."
Fact.

by Jesse28 on Nov 16, 2010 1:02 PM EST up reply actions

Collins has ALWAYS been the one guy in the NBA...

…that defies statistical sense. IIRC, his prime saw several seasons where he ranked near the top in +/-. There’s a little bit of “Mario West” in this logic because it seems the Hawks are playing 4 on 5, but coaches seem to think he does “the little things.”

In short, Collins’ impact MUST be difficult to quantify or he wouldn’t continue to get contracts.

Short sample size warning:

Leads Hawks in Adjusted +/-

Net +41 when on the court

Statistically, the team plays better defensively with Collins on the court, even if it isn’t Collin himself who registers box score stats in the process.

by mrHonline on Nov 16, 2010 12:05 PM EST reply actions

Individual +/-

I try to stay away from individual +/- numbers because I think they tend to lean to the extremes. We’ve all see it, as you’ve mentioned, with players such as West, but even with Smoove. I specifically recall a discussion last year, or maybe the year before, with CoCo and others pertaining to one particular game where Smoove dropped like 27/15/9/9 and ended up with a -21. That’s an absurd way to rate a player imo.

However, I do acknowledge the value in lineup +/- numbers so long as they are being discussed within the context of evaluating line rotations and sub’ing patterns, not determining the value of individual players. And even then I would put more weight into Off and Def efficiency ratings over the +/- of those lineups. Also, you have to be sure to look at the rotations where everything other than the two players being compared is equal.

In fact, here’s an example of that. In the top 20 rotations used by LD thus far, #3 on the list was Bibby-JJ-Smoove-Horf-Collins with Bibby-JJ-Smoove-Horf-Pachulia coming in at #8. The Hawks have played 43.0 mins with Collins and 9.9 with Pachulia. Right off the bat that’s a huge difference, but even with that gap in minutes there is a noticeable dropoff from Pachulia to Collins.

With Collins: Off ppp is 1.17, Def ppp is 0.83, and +/- is +30.
With Zaza: Off ppp is 1.42, Def ppp is 0.72, and +/- is +13.

Again, we are only looking at eleven games worth of data, but we are running a new system, a new coach, and Collins is actually getting extended play, so I’m not sure looking outside of this season would do anything other than muddy the water. Either way, I think the Collins experiment should end and if we are ever in need of shuffling the lineup again that we look to Zaza as the first and only option. In fact, he should be getting many more minutes, he should be on the floor with Horford more, and I wouldn’t mind seeing him get the starting nod from time to time when facing bigger fromnt courts.

"Everybody talks about SEC speed. The 27 fastest guys at the (NFL) combine, how many of them were from the SEC? Three. But if you say it enough, everybody will believe it."
-CPJ

"You could spend the next fifteen seconds of your life watching a man and a tiger scream together, or you could be an idiot."
Fact.

by Jesse28 on Nov 16, 2010 1:00 PM EST up reply actions

A bit of bias on a site with title "Zaza Loves, and there’s Zaza Pachulia Love"

Lets get the Zaza colored glasses off for a few seconds and look at facts.

In context of Collins vs. Zaza, I have stated that Collins is the better player when defending big centers. That was clear in the game vs. Orlando where he made Howard work, it was clear vs. Minnesota up at Minnesota, and it was even a good game by Collins vs. Bogat. He is simply a bigger body, and can defend big men better.

In case of Orlando and Bucks, bench caused the leads to evaporate. In Orlando Howard had a good game, but had to work for his points. Collins made him work hard. Vs. Bogat, it was not Bogat that was hurting Hawks. Collins got into trouble when Collins tried to stop and defend the forwards.

Lets give credit where credit is due, Collins got back in shape this year, and is playing better. . I have stayed away from years past comparisons, because of shape Collins was in before. But he is clearly in better shape. Zaza on the other hand, runs a side business. I am all for supporting Hawks and Hawks players who give their all to Hawks, not ones that are dividing their interest between outside interests and basketball.

Zaza has had one good game (first game of the year) and otherwise weak performances. He can not defend, he can not rebound, as normal he misses easy shots. I like Zaza’s energy off the bench and he still brings value to the team but if it is defending Shaq, or Howard, or even Duncan or other big men I go with Collins. Otherwise, I stay with healthy Marvin/Lion/Smoove lineup. Against a New York, Charlotte, Miami type team, no reason to play Collins at center.

There must be a reason Drew chose to play Collins ahead of Zaza. That simple fact should be a clue. I can not change perceptions. And I do not want to give credit to Collins more than he is due. But I believe if playing bigger slower centers, Drew is doing the right thing by starting Collins. It will be interesting to see what he does with Marvin getting back to healthy status

by ATLpaul on Nov 16, 2010 1:22 PM EST reply actions

It's not bias, it's pure statistics

How can you state that Zaza does not rebound nor defend when all of the numbers clearly show that to be untrue? Zaza has better offensive rebounding numbers, better defensive rebounding numbers, he’s better from an offensive ppp (pointe per possession), defensive ppp, he’s better in every steal category, every block category, every offensive and defensive rating category. There is absolutely nothing one could point to that show’s Collins as the better player.

What does Collins making Howard work even mean? Howard dropped 27/11 that night, 20 of which came from FG’s made. Yes, Collins didn’t lose the game for us, and yes, he has lost weight and is in better shape, but neither of those things prove that he is a better player than Zaza.

And seriously? If you are trying to justify your point with “Zaza owns a business” then you are simply grasping at the wind because that is completely irrelevent and absurd. If you want to argue small sample size, then I’ll definitely concede that point. However, I’ll simply counter that with the fact that even if you expand these number to their careers, Zaza is still the better player.

Plus, Zaza has been known as the local enforcer of the paint. I don’t recall any hard fouls on Howard from Collins, but I’ve seen plenty from Zaza over the years. If anyone makes an opposing big man work, it’s Zaza, not Collins.

"Everybody talks about SEC speed. The 27 fastest guys at the (NFL) combine, how many of them were from the SEC? Three. But if you say it enough, everybody will believe it."
-CPJ

"You could spend the next fifteen seconds of your life watching a man and a tiger scream together, or you could be an idiot."
Fact.

by Jesse28 on Nov 16, 2010 3:38 PM EST up reply actions

It is bias or you are not watching the games this year

You can look at it either way you want. But first some additional facts in context of THIS YEAR

First Consider:
1. Zaza has a contract for 5M~ for 4 years. Compare that to
2. Jason Collins has a minimum contract at 1.2M~

Second:
You can not argue one’s attention is not split, his time that could be spent on developing skills is not being devoted to his side business. That is just not real if you are arguing that fact. Any one who has ever had two lines of work can attest to that.

Three
Zaza being an enforcer, means he forced Garnett to back down. For that, I am for ever thankful. But for that, he has a contract he also doesn’t deserve.

Fourth, some recent games where Collins had a part:
Zaza statistics this year are beyond horrendous.
Last game against Minnesota: he plays 11:36. scores on four free throws. Has 4 fouls. Drew trakes him out.
Game against Utah, Zaza again has zero points. He has 3 rebounds. Plays 16:40. Collins does not play.

Game against Bucks, Zaza plays 22:43 minutes. In garbage time. After the game was already lost. Score 16 points. Zaza and the bench lost the lead
Collins started, played 10:21 (had zero points, but his +/- was positive. During his time, Hawks had a lead. He made stupid fouls and left the game).

Game against Orlando,
Zaza played 15:38. Had 2 poimts on 2 free throws. He and the bench lost the lead. Collins played 21:59. Had 6 points. Played good D on Howard, and the reason why Hawks were competitive, was because the guards didn’t have to help out when Collins was defending Howards. That is what making Howard work mean. Howard had to score, and could not pass to Orlando three point shooters. Did you notice Orlando three point shooters had a bad night????

Game against Suns,
Zaza played 8:27. Scored zero points.
Collins had bad game, that is a bad team for Colllins to play against. He played about 4 minutes. Nothing to show for it.

Game at Minnesota
Zaza played 18:46. Mostly garbage time. Scored 7 points. On mostly free throws.
Collins played 21:03. With 6 points. Good D.

by ATLpaul on Nov 16, 2010 4:23 PM EST up reply actions

So just ignore all the data that contradicts your opinion?

1. The contracts are not what is in debate here, it’s the production on the floor and the numbers prove that Zaza is much more productive on both ends.

2. I can argue that Zaza’s secondary business is irrelevent because hundred’s of professional sports players have other business ventures with no evidence of any of them ever impacting their sports careers. Well, the legal business venture at least. Please, don’t tell me you’re so naive to think that Zaza spends a large amount of time during the season maintaining his business? These guys have people in place to manage these things while they are busy during the season.

3. It’s more than just getting in Garnetts face. Zaza was known to dole out hard fouls before that highly publicized episode. Did Collins not get completely worked against Howard? No, but he also didn’t do anything that Zaza or Horford can’t do.

Also, the gameplan was to not double Howard from the start. It had nothing to do with the guards not having to help, but everything to do with the fact that LD made it a goal to not double Howard so that they wouldn’t get beat from outside. LD stated as much in the press conference.

It’s fine if you think that Collins is better than Zaza, but that’s an opinion, not a fact. Above I showed the the difference in points per possession with Zaza in the same starting lineup as Collins and there is a clear increase in performance when Zaza is in versus Collins. If you want to ignore every viable measure of a players worth, that’s fine too. I simply disagree with that line of thinking and there’s nothing wrong with disagreeing. I just wanted to put the numbers up and let people make their own decisions.

Thanks for the debate!

"Everybody talks about SEC speed. The 27 fastest guys at the (NFL) combine, how many of them were from the SEC? Three. But if you say it enough, everybody will believe it."
-CPJ

"You could spend the next fifteen seconds of your life watching a man and a tiger scream together, or you could be an idiot."
Fact.

by Jesse28 on Nov 17, 2010 7:47 AM EST up reply actions

I also take issue here.

Pointing to side interest, as being distracting? Do you expect all professional athletes to only sit on their money, and concentrate on nothing but their game? If so you will be in for a lot more disappointment that Zaza.

If you go back and look at the game thread for the Hawks v Magic game, you’ll see I was the one pulling for Zaza to have more time in the game despite his foul numbers. I stand by my statements. It’s impossible to prove any different at this point, but I think that the Hawks could have won that game, particularly if Howard had to sit more.

It has been shown in the past that Howard will get frustrated and commit fouls, when faced with a physical defender. Zaza has made his reputation as a physical defender, and, though some people on this blog may disagree, he also is adept at flopping to draw a foul.

So, I for one, say throw out any of your points in favor of Collins, in the Magic game. In addition, the argument of Collins being in better shape, while true, is ignoring that Zaza was also in better shape coming into this season, as commented on by the announcers in their first game. This was due to his work with the Georgian National team, during the off season, not taking care of his side business, just in case there were any questions.

I am not the Zaza fan of Hawksdawg’s caliber, or perhaps even of THHB (notorious Marvin booster here) but he is clearly the superior player in this case.

by RamblininAlb on Nov 19, 2010 9:54 PM EST up reply actions

Well then you tell me what has Zaza done in last 2-3 years vs. Howard?

For the last 2-3 years he has been the backup center and has been dominated. One game that Collins plays, you point out if zaza was in more, he may have done better. Drew saw what I saw, and he didn’t want to insert Zaza in.

Drew has seen those old tapes. Zaza can not defend Howard. But that is not a shame. Most centers in the league can not. Even Lion can not. My point, against bigger centers, Zaza will have same difficulties. Is it his fault? No not really. Just like it is not Lion’s fault. Fact of the matter is, we don’t have a true center other than Collins. Zaza and Lion are power forwards playing out of position. If you watch Lion you see how smooth his jumper is now. IF you watch last game Zaza played, you see how he can reliably hit a 15-18 foot jumper. Now compare that to Zaza taking the ball inside. We all know how often he misses and how he gets blocked. He is just not fast off the ground.
Also, NO taking it inside against Howard, all it means is that he gets his shot blocked. There are centers in the league that can get Howard in trouble, Zaza is not one of them. How many more losses do Hawks have to take on the chin vs. Orlando for you to see that?

My general concern is lack of defensive presence when Zaza is in. No shot blocking intimidation whatsoever. No defensive rebounding. You can not refute the facts. But I am now moving away from the main topic of Jesse28 post, which was comparing Zaza vs. Collins. I believe Collins will do better vs. typical seven footers.

As for having side business, most players of any sport, get into side business after playing career is over, not while they are in the middle of it. That is just not the way you improve by dividing your attention. And ah yes, playing for Georgian national team is nonsense. He really doesn’t have any level of same competition as he does vs. NBA centers. It is not like you play for US, where competion is tremendous on the national level every day of the training camp. He needs to go work in a big man camp on his deficiencies, as opposed to being a star on his national team where he won’t focus on improving parts of his game that need improvement.

by ATLpaul on Nov 20, 2010 8:03 AM EST up reply actions