Where to go with Joe Johnson not signing an extension

by hawksdawgs on Sep 30, 2009 7:54 AM EDT Comment 52 comments

We have talked about this issue before here. First and foremost, what the no-sign means today is the Hawks still have a chance to sign Joe Johnson to a deal that is not over market value. Despite the immediate positive reactions of both the assumed and the surprising over the idea of having Joe on their team, I still contend that the market for Johnson in 2010 will not be nearly as feverish as maybe the Hawks brass and Joe himself assume. The cap is shrinking, the money is limited, and an enormous amount of players big and small will be looking and taking a piece of that pie. Even with all the exemptions and weird loop holes, their is still a finite amount of cash to spend. When it is gone, it is gone. And for the unrestricted guys, there is not a qualifying offer to fall back on.

The weird part about this whole rejection is what was rejected though. Four years 60 million. That is 15 million a year, a raise from his previous max contract. On the surface, the deal appears fair, even advantageous, for Joe Johnson to sign it. He would not have to worry about injury, secure his long term future, etc. etc. But Joe did not sign it. He wants to" focus on the season" or some other generalized idea that could probably be more easily done by actually signing a contract.

The no-sign raises a lot of possibilities. And the good news for Hawks fans is very few of them are outright bad. So without further ado lets venture to a land of possibilities, a place I call "the land of ......possibilities."

Joe Johnson sees the competitiveness of the open market and returns to the Hawks for same contract

I think the Hawks will struggle to contend for a championship the next four years if Joe Johnson is far and away the highest paid player. This leaves open the possibility that he could not be, but not by much. At least in the free agency market, this contract can be tested a bit by supply and demand.

Joe Johnson signs the same deal with Atlanta for the same money per year offered earlier...but for one more year.

No good. No good.

Joe Johnson does not want to play for the Hawks

He is well aware Atlanta made a legitimate fair offer and is ready to move on. This could be for one of three reasons.

1. He does not think the Hawks will ever be championship contenders. The first reason is a knock on the organization and possiblity an ironic stance by Joe. To be a championship contender, Joe Johnson may have to leave.

2. He wants to play with a superstar. Joe loves being top dog. I find this one hard to believe. But when he signs for less money to play with LeBron James in New York, now you can't say I told you so.

3. He will go to the "new" Atlanta if that is the only place that will pay him max money for max years. If this is the case, Hawks, you do what Phoenix did and you let Joe know if you really want to be greedy lets work a sign and trade so you can get the most money possible and we can get first round draft picks.

Joe sees the competitiveness of the open market and the Hawks sign him for less than they originally offered.

Anything that gets Joe Johnson back in a Hawks uniform and does not tie the hands of the organization financially is a win in my book.

Joe is using this year as a litmus test

He is willing to sacrifice guaranteed money for an extra years worth of information about this team. How big a jump can Al Horford make in his third year? Can Josh Smith tie any of the loose ends of his game together? Will Woodson be back? What is Jeff Teague all about? Joe wants to win and he wants to win it all. If the Hawks are not on the right track, he plans to move on.

I find this one to be oddly win/win. If the Hawks are on the right track, great, Joe is back. If they are not, the hardest piece to get rid of via trade can simply be let go of via free agency.

Where we go from here

I give an enormous amount of credit to Joe Johnson for leading the turnaround on the Hawks. If he leaves, you will not find any bashing on this blog. Number two will hold a special and revered place in my heart. But I do not think Joe is worth a second max contract both due to his age/minutes logged and the cap space crunch felt by so many teams. That being said I am glad Joe is being pursued. Rick Sund did not low ball him or disrespect his value. They treated Joe like he deserved to be, and he choose to test the water.

Sund has the leeway to play hardball now, a luxury some GMs might not have with a player fans hold at such a distinguished level. Sund has shown himself to be quite adept with restricted free agents, and Joe will be the first real test case on unrestricted. It should be a very interesting summer No matter what happens the fact remains, the Hawks can only make a horrible move in one of two ways. If they overpay or let him go and don't return to the fourth seed, only the former is a fact in of it self, and the latter was never that lofty of a goal anyway.

******Update*********

Sekou Smith has a fairly reasoned take thinking it is that extra year that is the hang up. Although I would contend Joe does not have the leverage Sekou thinks he does.

Poll

Knowing the contract offered, do you think Joe Johnson testing of the free agent market will end up being a good or bad thing for the Hawks?

Good

86 votes

Bad

58 votes

144 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

I am a little scared

But not in full panic mode yet. I like that we are going to get a “contract year” out of JJ, but I hate the thought of JJ leaving. JJ leaving the Hawks could set us back 2-3 years and takes the best piece of our core.

I’m not sure that there’s a piece we can add that can replace JJs leadership and grit.

by Duff_Man on Sep 30, 2009 8:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

if i am really honest with myself

i am right there with you. a little scared, but i am a little scared of the contract year too because it might mean joe dominated offense to the max.

but i agree. not sure joe could be replaced. and certain not for the 2010-11 season. anyone that says that jamal crawford is a fine replacement is talking crazy. but i think it is reasonable to believe the production might not be lost. more touches for marvin and al and somewhat to a less extent Josh could easily be a more efficient offense.

as for leadership and who the team’s leader would, that is scary because it is a total unknown.

by hawksdawgs on Sep 30, 2009 8:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

IF Joe leaves...

and make it clear, I hope he resigns eventually (and hope it’s for less than was just offered personally), but in the chance he does move on, I don’t think he is replaced on his own. First and foremost you’d need to go find a guy who can be your lockdown defender on the perimeter. But other than that, the Hawks have options to fill the void. Marvin Williams can expand his game and become more of a focal point offensively. Same with Al Horford as you mention. If Jeff Teague looks like the real deal, it opens minutes for him. You have Crawford to try and help fill the void for at least one year, and Josh Chilldress is still under Hawks’ control and could either be signed or used in a trade to bring back a SG or draft pick.

Basically, you don’t replace Joe with one guy, but it is possible to replace Joe with a team effort, especially if Chill comes back (unlikely, I know) and Marvin can continue to improve. I think when you add in Chill’s rights, depending on how the young core—Horford, Williams, Smooth, Teague—look this year, the team has a lot of flexibility in moving forward in MANY directions with potential trades, free agency, etc.

by Mr. Sanchez on Sep 30, 2009 8:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hmm

who the team’s leader would (be)

Isn’t that kind of been the problem with JJ now? That he exerts no leadership anyways? So would we really be missing that, probably not.

Plus, we would only miss his production because of the fact that this offense runs through him, is designed for him, is named after him, has been admitted by the coach that it’s for him, not because we would flatly lose 20/g. We could then effectively replace the system and/or the coach and get better production from what we already have to make up for the loss. Or the coach can just insert Crawford or whoever the next JJ is and get close to the same production combined with an increase from everyone else.

No, I don’t think that either way would pound for pound replace JJ, but I also don’t think it’s a nightmare situation either.

"This is America, if we can’t self-righteously look down on others and blame them for our faults, the commies win."-----Cormican on Bleeding Green Nation w/r/t fans overreacting to the Eagles signing of Michael Vick

by Jesse28 on Sep 30, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

maybe “the man” or “go to guy” or “alpha dog” would have been a better word choice than leader.

by hawksdawgs on Sep 30, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Way too many "ifs"

And my biggest fear is that Josh Smith tries to step up and be a leader. That would be my worst nightmare.

by Duff_Man on Sep 30, 2009 9:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That far in the future, everyone has IFs..

IF Ron Artest doesn’t blow up, taking team chemistry with him.
IF Lebron resigns in Cleveland
IF Lebron signs with the Knicks
IF Lebron signs with New Jersey
IF Gil Arenas can get back near 100%
IF Derrick Rose can become the real deal
IF Chris Paul can find an actual team/owner
IF Kevin Durant can get some help
IF Vince Carter can help a team win when it matters
IF Bosh sticks in Toronto
IF Garnett, Allen, Pierce, Rasheed can get/stay healthy. (by the way, I still love Rasheed—see this http://www.kansascity.com/sports/chiefs/story/1474519.html
“Picture this: NBA player Rasheed Wallace, a Derrick Thomas jersey and a prosthetic leg. That was the scene in the lobby Sunday afternoon at Lincoln Financial Field. Wallace, wearing a No. 58 Chiefs jersey, tossed a man’s prosthetic leg back and forth. ")

Well to make what is an already long post somewhat shorter, every NBA team is dependant on IFs, especially as you go into the future 1-3+ years. Some just have more ifs than others, some have more realistic ifs than others, but they all have plenty of ifs.

by Mr. Sanchez on Sep 30, 2009 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I see Joe as being at that point in his career where winning a ring is what he mainly cares about. Let’s face it. It’s very doubtful a championship is coming to the Hawks during the next 5 years. It makes all the sense in the world therefore for him to see if he can get a rich contract from a perennial contender (Boston, San Antonio) or an up-and-coming team with arguably a higher ceiling than the Hawks (Bulls). The Hawks right now are built around Joe Johnson, so there’s little doubt his leaving would be a bad thing as far as win totals and playoff appearances for a few years unless Sund pulls off a miracle and signs Wade or Lebron to replace him (not happening) or Teague turns into the same player as Joe (doubtful).

by redwards95 on Sep 30, 2009 9:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I have concerns about a player

who already tries to do too much being in the position of marketing himself. Contract years can be good and bad. Joe trying to prove he can carry this particular team all by himself will not sit well with a handful of players who love to shoot. You know who they are. I’m on the fence about this being a good thing and I honestly do think Joe might be over- valuing himself. $60 million over 4 years is more than reasonable.

by Co Co on Sep 30, 2009 10:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Rockets fan here

We would love to have Joe come over and play for us. With him on the wings, Yao down low, and the rest of our complimentary players we would definitely be back in the mix in the West.
So, would you all take McGrady’s expiring deal in a sign and trade for Joe? You might have to include some salary filler to make the numbers work.
Of course now that he didn’t sign we could just let McGrady walk and we’ll have 20 million to spend on Joe and hopefully someone else in the offseason.

by PhilippeinBoston on Sep 30, 2009 10:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Um. Isn’t Yao out for the year with a foot injury?

by redwards95 on Sep 30, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

For next year...

Obviously the pairing will work best if Yao is actually on the court, so this argument would apply to the next season and beyond…

by PhilippeinBoston on Sep 30, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm sorry PhilippeinBoston.....

but that sounds like a deal our last GM would make…..let’s put it this way HELL NAW!

Atlanta will win a championship....someday

by maxxj3 on Sep 30, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

U KIDDING ME

Sorry Hawksdawg ..I dont agree with you here. The market for Joe will be HUGE! Even if he has an average year.
Lets look at the teams that can gladly offer Joe over 15 million a year.
- Cleveland even if they dont lose Lebron. They need a 2 guard and will have the cap space.
- New Jersey has the cap space and need a 2 guard/ small forward
- Miami . Even if they dont lose Wade, they could play Joe at the 3.
- New York- Yikes!!!If they lose out on the big 3, watch out.!!
These are 4 teams that have the money and will pay for Joe.

by dkrib on Sep 30, 2009 1:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

the only thing i disagree with you on

is i dont think cleveland has money to offer joe more than the hawks just did. may be wrong but i know they dont have enough to sign two max guys.

and it is also just supply and demand on those teams you correctly mentioned. not just wade and lebron. there is bosh, amare, ray allen, stephen jackson, david lee, manu. all these guys with a shrinking cap and owners not wanting to pay the luxury tax. just because you normally would get max money does not mean you will in 2010.

by hawksdawgs on Sep 30, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

PLEASE READ !!!

Apparently, Joe is highly regarded outside Atlanta. Please read article by outside writer ..key point “Will he be worth the monster contract he could be offered next summer? Probably yes, perhaps just as much as the guys like Wade and LeBron.”

http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=13930

by dkrib on Sep 30, 2009 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You know.....

I honestly don’t see a replacement for joe johnson other than kobe, lebron, or d wade.

With that being said I don’t blame Joe for rejecting the hawks offer. He is an all-star calliber nba player, who is not yet 30, thinking about his own future. Of course he wants to stay the course and see how the season ends so he (and the hawks) can negociate sensable deal.

If the hawks lose Joe, I hope they’ll remember the days when Nique, Steve Smith, and Mutombo was here taking the hawks into the playoffs. And when they left…..well you know the picture. Hope he doesn’t go to the spurs…..

Atlanta will win a championship....someday

by maxxj3 on Sep 30, 2009 3:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

JAMAL CRAWFORD IS MORE FIT IN THE ISO OFFENSE ANYWAYS!!!

http://www.49ersboard.blogspot.com

by supraman on Sep 30, 2009 4:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Joe being gone might make Marvin a better player.

Marv was a stud in the games Joe didn’t play in last year and the Hawks won both of them if my memory serves me correctly. It may not be a bad thing to force coach woodson to utilize a real offense. I think the biggest problem with some of our other guys is they aren’t properly utilized. If the “go to guy” isn’t there that might change.

by Co Co on Sep 30, 2009 4:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i tend to agree, but letting your franchise player (even if someone does not want to call joe franchise) go on “hope” and three games where marvin was awesome is a big risk. no way around that.

by hawksdawgs on Sep 30, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The fact that when Joe

is referred to as a franchise player it always reads like “franchise player” is also reason enough to not over pay him. Look if they’re going to be up against or over the cap then the product on the court damn well needs to justify it. Getting swept in the 2nd round is not justification enough for them to give him more than $15 mil per. It just isn’t. And we all know I looooooove me some Joe. I think $60 mill over four is more than fair.

by Co Co on Sep 30, 2009 4:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Without Joe...

Get ready for no playoffs at all. I don’t see the Hawks without Joe making it to the playoffs.

by Duff_Man on Sep 30, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

In your honest opinion

setting aside the strong feelings you possess for Joe, if he’s the Hawks best player can they win a championship? He disappeared in the playoffs last year except for that one game. WE can’t really put all our eggs in that basket. I think we as fans feel like we’ve grown up with this team. I totally get that, but I’m not sure we’re winning a championship with a reluctant “franchise player”

by Co Co on Sep 30, 2009 4:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think it's possible

there would just have to be alot of talent around him. But setting that aside, who can we get that’s better? Aside from Lebron and Wade, you have Bosh who I don’t think has a much better chance of winning as the best player on the team than Joe. Who else? Amare? Manu?

The players that are the caliber that you are calling for are Lebron, Kobe, Wade, Howard, and Paul. either we find a way to get one of those guys, blow everything up and hope to draft someone that is as good, or we continue to tinker and hope to contend with a deep talent pool where the 5th guy is almost as good as the best guy.

by thirdfALCON on Sep 30, 2009 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You don't need someone better

You just need someone comparable, then you can balance the difference on the talent we already have. Just shifting the focus some could make a huge difference in the results of this team, with or without JJ.

by Jesse28 on Oct 1, 2009 7:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ok then who is comparable that would be cheaper?

by thirdfALCON on Oct 1, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i suppose that depends on which metric you want to use as an evaluator

But here’s the biggest thing with JJ, when you start digging into the numbers, it seems to me that he his highly overrated when compared to the rest of the NBA. To the Hawks, he is an essential part of what they do, mainly because he is the focal point of every offensive possession. To me, that only exascerbates the issue. Even with him being the focal point of the entire system for the Hawks, he still doesn’t crack any advanced measure top 20 leaderboard such as PER, ORtg, DRtg, eFG%, or TS%. One would think that if he was such a lockdown all-star that his numbers would show it, but unfortunately, they don’t. Heck, he doesn’t even crack the top 20 in win shares.

In fact, in most of those categories, he wasn’t even the best player on the team last year. Al Horford had a better FG%, Bibby was a better 3pt shooter, and Marvin had a better ORtg. Last year, in eFG% Horford, Bibby, Smith, Williams, and Flip all were better than JJ. In TS%, Williams, Horford, Bibby, & Flip were better. In fact, the only thing that makes JJ better than the others is the simple fact that everything runs through him, so he accumulates more minutes to put up more shots to garner more points which makes him the team leader in PER.

So, if you want to go off PER, then there are players such as Ben Gordon who have a similar PER, score just as much, and cost less. Sessions, although more of a PG, is on the same level. Just looking at SG’s, and without really looking into each players contract status, here’s a list for you: Barbosa, Kevin Martin, Iguodala, Redd, Gordon, J.R. Smith, Richardson, McGrady, Lou Williams, Brewer, AI, and Rudy Fernandez. I’m willing to bet that they aren’t all currently signed for 15mil+. Also, these same players, plus a few others, would be comparable in VORP (Value over Replacement Player) and WORP (Wins over Replacement Player).

There are many variables to this that it would be difficult for any of us to say that any of these players would or wouldn’t work without spelling out every single detail such as if we are including Woodson as the coach or not. My only point is that JJ is not the end-all-be-all to the Hawks. Even if he stays, if there was a slight shift in offensive philosophy this team would win more games. If he doesn’t stay, then there are players available that could fill in for most of his production and allow the other players to increase their production enough to cover the difference.

by Jesse28 on Oct 2, 2009 8:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you want to rely soley on stats and forego what you see happen on the court

you should probably just play fantasy basketball

by thirdfALCON on Oct 2, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're right

Because JJ performs magic while on the court amiright?

Seriously, is that what you’re going with? You asked me who I thought were some comparable players, what other metric am I supposed to use to compare players by? If you have something in mind, then please, tell me, otherwise, stop acting like a tool and move on.

Stats track what happens on the court and most everyone agrees that PER, eFG%, TS%, ORtg, and DRtg are all viable stats with which to compare players by. When I started digging through the numbers, the above were the results. Completely devoid of my own opinion, those numbers clearly show that he is a borderline all-star at best since he can’t crack the top twenty in any major category.

My opinion is that yes, he is very important to what the Hawks do, but only because they make it so, and not the other way around. They acquired JJ when the team was in shambles and there was no talent. They then drafted more talent around him hoping that the combined efforts would get us exactly where we are now. That’s a success. The downside to this is that now it seems as though some people believe that we can’t succeed without Joe and I don’t believe that to be the case. The numbers tend to agree. I’ve listed players that are better are what he does well in a system that they are not the focal point of. That leads me to believe that if some of the offense was shifted to them, we might see a much better and more complete team that could compete easily with the big three in the East.

If you want to disagree on my opinion, then fine, but don’t scoff at the numbers simply because they don’t support your opinion.

by Jesse28 on Oct 2, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

please read !!

http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=13930

by dkrib on Sep 30, 2009 9:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I've always wondered...

are fans who see players each and every day spoiled and don’t appreciate what they see, or are more familiar with the intricacies of a person and player and know better what they can and can’t do.

Is Reshard Lewis worth what Orlando pays him? Great player, but he’s making more than Garnett, Howard, Joe, and just about everyone in the league. Is it worth it, over the long haul, to pay a premium for a very good player who is not good enough to be the best player on a champion?

I love Joe, but if this team is going to win a title, be it division, conference, or league, it won’t be with him as the best player. It can be with him leading the offense, but at least as the roster is formed, the best player on the team, if it is to win a title, has to be Josh Smith (maybe Marvin, or a future addition going forward).

by Mr. Sanchez on Oct 1, 2009 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Garnett is currently the highest paid NBA player. But I see your point.

by dstdeelite on Oct 6, 2009 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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by semsark on Oct 30, 2009 8:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Damn, Damn, Damn!!

Just what we need to start off the season…..a freakin distraction. Ugh!! Just to think I was really looking forward to the upcoming season. I love Joe and would hate to see him go to another team and lead/help them win a friggin ring. We as Hawks fans deserve that damn ring! We’re the ones who sat through that 600 point loss to the Clippers! We’re the ones who watched our dreams of making the ECF evaporate on national TV in an embarrassing display of lackluster play!! We’ve come so far to take a nose dive and hang our hats on a possible future draft pick. On the poll, I voted that JJ not taking the extension was a good thing because if he’s going to produce like I think he’ll produce this year with our current roster, the market will dictate his worth. If it’s meant to be, it’ll be. Otherwise we’re screwed. I’m not taking anything away from our core guys, but JJ along with the addition of Bibby brought this franchise from the pits of hell. I see the media talking about other teams now they way they used to talk about us when we won 13 games. I’m actually quite proud of our guys. At the end of the day, this is a business. The Hawks organization has to do what’s best for them and Joe has to do what’s best for him. If that means going to another team (I cry), then so be it.

by dstdeelite on Sep 30, 2009 10:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree with Jesse

the focus on this team needs to be shifted with or without Joe. As fans we need to ask ourselves what kind of team we want. Do we want a team that’s just good enough to make the playoffs? If so then we should just keep everything the same. Break the bank on Joe, extend Woody and continue to ignore the post game. I myself want a team that’s actually building towards competing for a championship, not just competing to win at least one game in the second round. 3 years ago a playoff berth certainly was a satisfactory accomplishment, it shouldn’t be anymore. If the best we can hope for by keeping Joe is a playoff appearance then things need to change. I’m not saying I’d rather not make the playoffs at all, but at this point just making the playoffs is nothing more than a moral victory. I would like to keep Joe, but it has to make sense for the whole team. The Atl Spirit is frugal and we all know this, so they have to use the resources that they are willing to spend in the best manner possible. Once again, $60 million over 4 years is more than reasonable for Joe.

by Co Co on Oct 1, 2009 9:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

And...

Before anyone starts blaming the ASG or Sund, let’s remember Joe is the one who turned them down here, not the other way around. This was a management group that actively sought to keep all it’s players including it’s #1 option and all-star in JJ. So, clearly they were willing to drop the cash. JJ is the one who is wanting to test open waters here. So let’s here everyone jankin on Childress for taking the money when clearly JJ is hoping for the same thing.

by Jesse28 on Oct 1, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

that's all fine

But I haven’t seen anything from Horford that makes me think he can be a dominate player on either end, nor have I seen that Josh is capable of being consistent enough to rely on. Hopefully that changes someday, and it very well could. But as much as I’m sure everyone wants to blame Woodson, at some point the players have do something to prove that they are as good as some of you think they are. And they just haven’t.

If you think that we would even win 35 games without Joe you are deluding yourself. If you think that Horford is going to be a 20 and 10 guy, you might be right but the truth is probably that he’s closer to his ceiling than you think.

I agree that 60 and 4 is more than reasonable, and I hope that we can get him for cheaper next year. But looking at all of the teams that have cap space next year I really doubt it. And I don’t see who we could get that’s comparable to Joe.

by thirdfALCON on Oct 1, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Consistent compared to what though?

Josh Smith has increased his eFG%, TS%, and ORtg each of the last three years while averaging an 18.2 PER over that same time. JJ’s has decreased in that same time while averaging a 18.3 PER. Horford has only played two years and had a significant jump across the board from year one to year two. Both players have shown that they are still growing and continuing to improve while JJ seems to have peaked and could possibly be on the decline.

If you are talking about game-to-game consistency, then they are no different that JJ has been. All last year he disappeared for stretches of games, probably at no different a rate than anyone else. Bibby was the same way, and when Bibby and JJ were both off at the same time, we had no other gameplan to make up for it. Woody just kept feeding the ball to those two while they bricked us into dumb losses. Woodson even said as much stating that “that’s who the offense runs through and you have to keep feeding your shooters the ball to help get them going.”

So yes, the players are inconsistent at times, all of them, not just the ones you don’t notice. You can’t blame players for not producing when they aren’t a part of the offense to begin with. You might as well start blaming the bench players for the starters not producing. And yes, I do believe this team has enough talent to win 35 games without JJ. What evidence do you have that shows we can’t?

by Jesse28 on Oct 2, 2009 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jesse28

The post above me made me tear up a little. I love it.

by Co Co on Oct 2, 2009 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I aim to please!

by Jesse28 on Oct 2, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can't believe you just argued that Josh is as consistent as Joe.

Game to game, or possession to possession.

Josh had games last year where his stat lines were 4, 3, and 2; 8, 2, and 0; 4, 5 and 6; 9, 3, and 2. I could go on. This is just from the first 3 months, one of which he wasn’t even on the floor for most of. Aside from that he makes a boneheaded play to match most of his brilliant ones. I’m not saying he won’t ever put it all together, but I don’t think we can count on him to lead the team until he can put most of that ugliness behind him.

Horford is a good player, and one of my favorites. However I have seen nothing from him that makes me think he’s going to be a great scorer. Even if it is all Woodson’s fault, you should still see those flashes of brilliance. Go check out his youtube mixes. You will see nothing put easy dunks that were gifted by other players with a few foaters sprinkled in. The best case scenario for him from an offensive standpoint is to be as good as Kenyon Martin, not exactly alpha dog quality.

All of the hype about Marvin is based on three or 4 games that Joe was out against bad teams.

As for Joe. He he leads the team in several offensive categories, commands constant double teams, defends the opposition’s best guard, basically runs the offense, and is the focal point of coaches game plans every single night. Stats aren’t meant to be taken in a vacuum and you do so at your own peril. All of the players that you mentioned as being “comparable” to Joe aren’t fit to carry his Jock, save a healthy Macgrady(who will be making 23 million), or Kevin Martin(12) and if Joe was on any of their teams besides Houston he would immediately become a better option for their coaches. And I don’t think anyone could rationally claim otherwise

by thirdfALCON on Oct 2, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And...

I could go single out stretches of game where JJ is jacking up 10-15 bricks a night. Seriously, go look at his game log for Jan and Feb. Tell me how many games he shot at least 40%. For a career 44% shooter, 40% should be a reasonable threshold. There were plenty of nights last year where JJ could have best served the team by sitting for a quarter or two.

You are right, on any given night, JJ brings more to the table singularly than any of the others do, usually combined. But I stated that in the beginning and no one is debating that. My only point is that he isn’t the end of the world as it relates to the Hawks. You could grab a couple of those I listed for what the Hawks offered JJ, coupled with a little more production from what we already have, and the Hawks could easily account for most if not all of the production provided by JJ.

Ha, he only commands a double team because he is the only option this sytem relies on. Move the ball around and I bet they quit double-teaming him so much.

Look, JJ is clearly the world to you and that’s fine. All things being the same, I think that if we lose Joe and don’t do something to replace his production, then yes, this team is screwed. But, I don’t think it’s impossible to do so. So I guess this is where we differ.

by Jesse28 on Oct 2, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He only commands a double team because he's the only player on our team worth double teaming

He’s not the world to me, if he was on another team I really wouldn’t be that big of a fan. But if you think we would still be a playoff team without him your drinking kool-aid.

If you think it would be better to go a year without Joe and take a few steps back to take a big step forward, that’s fine. But that’s not what your saying. Your saying that we could just plug in Barbosa, Kevin Martin, Iguodala, Redd, Gordon, J.R. Smith, Richardson, McGrady, Lou Williams, Brewer, AI, and Rudy Fernandez, and just keep humming along. That’s crazy, his value goes beyond his production.

Where we differ is that I’m being realistic, and your playing fantasy basketball.

by thirdfALCON on Oct 2, 2009 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Close, but no cigar

No, I’m not saying that you could just plug in one of those guys and we would be the same. I’m saying that those guys come close to JJ’s level of performance, that is all. In fact, you’re the one who asked for a list of names, so go look in the mirror, point at yourself, and say, “I’m not stupid, you are!”

Yes, my point has been focused on production because that’s what wins games. So, if JJ was to not resign with the Hawks, I don’t believe that it would be the end of the Hawks as we know them. I believe that we could go after one or two of the guys I’ve listed and (try to pay attention here) combined with a shift in offensive philosophy so as to involve and utilize the existing talent (Horford, Williams, Smith, etc) more that it would be possible for this team to sustain their current success.

You have stated that it is of your opinion that the teams below us have not done much in the way of getting better, or closer to us, so how would what I have suggested not be possible? How would the Hawks under the above circumstances, not be able to maintain, in the very least, the 8th spot in the miserable East?

It is you sir, who is being unrealistic here.

by Jesse28 on Oct 5, 2009 8:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Uh...

Has everybody forgotten that this whole offense and defense is dictated by one person who isn’t even on the court? You think with Joe gone and Woody here that that would be a prime senario?

Atlanta will win a championship....someday

by maxxj3 on Oct 1, 2009 1:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Of course it isn't

Especially if you are like me and believe that Woodson can’t change and show’s no desire whatsoever to change. But you also can’t look at this in a vacuum scenario. JJ leaving wouldn’t be the end of the book on this. Sund and the ASG would go and get someone comparable or a couple of people to help fill the production void, and I’m sure that it would only lead to Crawford becoming the new JJ. We’d essentially go from running the ISO-Joe to running the ISO-Jamal.

That’s why I think it is imperative that Woodson finally heeds his own advice and shift the focus off of Joe some and let the talent on the team actually get to use it. I doubt that will happen because he has been saying the same thing for the last three years and nothing has changed. But, as with all things, everything is within the realm of possibility, regardless of how improbable it may be.

by Jesse28 on Oct 1, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

welll....

things will have to change in order to win a championship. And that depends on what anybody on that team is willing to give up for the team.

Atlanta will win a championship....someday

by maxxj3 on Oct 1, 2009 2:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

So if the Hawks

lose that 4th seed, which is a real possibility because the teams beneath them did make moves, then what will we think of Joe’s worth? Yes, I want you all to speculate.

by Co Co on Oct 2, 2009 3:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

that wouldn’t change anything for me in and of itself. Did we lose the 4th because someone int the Chi/Tort/MIA/Wash area won 55 games? Did we take major steps back? Did Joe get injured and miss a huge chunk of the season?

I personally don’t think we should get too psyched up about the 4th seed. I’m not going into the season thinking, “we have to defend the 4 spot” like we are defending a title or something. We’re not. We’re a top 10(ish) team right now. If Joe plays great and the Hawks are clearly into the top 7 at the end of the year, then that will increase his value. If he plays great and we take a step back, it probably won’t change the market much.

So I guess that’s my answer, it’s more about how Joe plays than how we compare to the rest of the teams in the East.

by thirdfALCON on Oct 2, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So jj is elite?

Every one seems to be saying to replace jj we have to get an “elite” player like wade or bosh. So why is everyone saying jj isnt elite then? He obviously scores like an elite on occasions………
As far as jj not signing, im not worried. He’s challenging himself and hoping he can lead his team to a serious run this year. JJ actually “testing himself” could mean a more dangerous jj dont you think? As far as money, i dont believe thats what its about, i believe its about “basketball” and his capabilities. He said in an interview that he believes he “can be one of the elite players in the league,” so let him explore it. I see it going in a positive direction especially with crawford here.

by TheHawksgirl on Oct 5, 2009 1:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs