Against the tyranny of the immediate.
Wages of Wins is an online journal written by economists that measure the wins produced by a player per 48 minutes. I would never claim to know the intricacies of the whole formula but so you know where I stand on their thesis, I will say I think like any formula, PER and the rest, it gives a very good idea of a player but never the whole idea.
Recently, they took up "Critiquing the plan in Atlanta" using the wages of win formula. As the off season has progressed, observers have noticed that the Hawks are largely standing pat and hope that internal development will be the main source of improvement. This has occurred over the last four seasons and the Hawks hope it continues to follow suit.
Wages of wins does not deny this but simply says even if the three most likely Hawks to improve (Al Horford, Josh Smith, and Marvin Williams) do so far beyond what seems likely (he randomly deems that number at a 50 percent improvement for each) it would mean as follows,
a 50% jump would result in 10.9 additional wins. Such a leap moves the Hawks from a 45 win team (that is what their efficiency differential said they should have won in 2008-09) to a 56 win team.Had this happened last season, the Hawks would have moved from the 4th seed in the Eastern Conference all the way to.... okay, the 4th seed.
The article concludes that if internal, enormous development cannot improve the Hawks to contend next year the Hawks really have no plan at all. Leaving Hawks fans with a final message that,
Yes, one can hope. But again, that's not really a plan.
Now I do not deny the improvement Wages gives Horford, Josh, and Marvin are very generous. Unrealistically so. Nor can I sit here and disprove simple math and say the Hawks would somehow be anything but the fourth seed.
However, this immediate leap to label the Hawks planless, to say a major piece must be added here or there or all is lost, is simply the lazy way of looking at the NBA. It is the normal way of course, but normal does not have a monopoly on anything.
Just because most bloggers and NBA writers (myself very much included) find it easier to write and speculate no further than two weeks out does not mean we should refuse to ever leave the immediate. The NBA, and even I dare say our culture, is ruled by the tyrant of now and it warps our thinking far too often.
The Hawks do not have a plan to win the championship next year unless as Wages points out injuries occur on other teams and miracles happen in Atlanta. But that does not mean they don't have a plan.
In three years, Josh Smith, Al Horford, and Marvin Williams will be 26 year old legit veterans. Jeff Teague will 24 with three years experience. Zaza will somehow, someway only turn 28. Joe Johnson? He will be the wily veteran at 31.
Is anyone predicting Boston's big three to still be dominating then? In Cleveland, LeBron James could be gone and Shaq and Zydrunas Ilgauskas certainly will be.Orlando will have 61 million in contracts possibly already locked up for that season and no shooting guard.
On top of that, yes, 56 wins would be an unbelievable and slightly ridiculous improvement next year. But what about in three years. Is that far fetched? Maybe not as far fetched as three teams in the same conference winning 59 or more games. In the three seasons before last, 56 wins would have put the Hawks third, first, and second in the east.
Of course, the what ifs remain for the Hawks. Teague has to become a legit starting point guard. Joe Johnson has to remain durable and relatively consistent. Horford, Marvin, and Josh would need to improve at least a little each year. And I would say the Hawks probably need a new coach. There are what ifs, but they are not crazy like say us stealing Pau Gasol from a team. Or as ridiculous as the ideas that Kevin Garnett will play in 20012-20013 at a level anywhere close to what he did in 2008.
Naturally, those big three teams will change and adapt and new teams will probably rise up that are not the Hawks, but no one is remaining constant. And those teams that do rise up or stay up probably are not winning 59 games every year.
The Hawks actually do have a plan. Like every other team in the league, it will require good fortune, and even with that luck, it may not be enough (Lakers last year, Cavs this year). But I like our team against any other in three years. In this day and age, that sounds ridiculous, but only one team can win every year. And it would count the same if it happened in four years as it would next June.
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In 3 years......
We could have a couple super bowl rings, maybe a world series, if the Braves put it together. But I wouldn’t be surprised if the Hawks, somehow some way get a ring in that span. Everyone knows they have the talent. One of the greatest Home court in the NBA. Every year, some “NBA experts” will just write off the hawks. But they keep fighting back. The hawks are on the right track for big things.
I’m jealous I didn’t write this, too. Great piece.
Disclaimer: I detest Wages of Wins.
The criticisms of the organization, I think, are mostly fair. They’re not contenders now and they might not be contenders in the foreseeable future, with this group.
The way its done on that site, though, is ridiculous. Adding up “wins produced” by each player does not work, as it completely misses out on how individual players interact with one another (and, of course, how the team is coached).
I think it’s clear what the Hawks’ plan is: hope the young core improves, add some undervalued complementary pieces along the way, and hope for a little bit of luck. You can criticize that plan (and I would – the Bibby and Crawford signings did nothing for me and I’m no Mike Woodson fan either), but you can’t say they don’t have one.
by Vittorio De Zen on Aug 25, 2009 4:50 PM EDT reply actions
my issue was less with wages
and more with this idea that things are only a great move if they help you win a championship next season. but i always say many of those great moves immediately become bad moves when those teams don’t win. because they lock the team in a certain direction or lock them into no direction at all.
the article just exemplified that idea by throwing out “no plan” because the hawks can’t win next year. ignoring any idea of the future or the abortion (in that they were incredibly good) that was the records of the top three teams last year.
thanks for stopping by Vittorio.
thanks for the positive feedback
a little surprised there is not more push back. but i will take agreement any day.
The Hawks Have It All Now...
I don’t think the Hawks need a plan other than resign Joe and get the bench squared away. JS, MW, and ZP are sighned long term. I really believe the Hawks are gonna make a crazy move for like Camby or Stephen Jackson in the next couple of weeks, knowing they only need to get by until they can find a big man for Jamal Crawford. Love Crawford here under almost any circumstances (I don’t care what anyone says about his game, I know he can play and produce), but behind Joe is not the place for Crawford. Personally, I think a couple months down the road, Utah could be a very good suitor for the Hawks. Utah’s lineup doesn’t mesh, and Crawford would be a great help in that regard. He could be a great example for Kirilenko of playing basketball on the floor rather than trying to do so from a hospital,also. They need a real tempo adjustment, and Crawford would give the Jazz a little of that Hornacek flair. Boozer is going to end up back in Utah irregardless of what kind of year he has, but how much he’s getting paid will be afffected somewhat by his performance this year. Since the cap is going down, I am guessing he’ll sign in the $10-$12 million range, maybe 4 years. That leaves Okur. I say keep your hopes up Hawks and hang in there, because I sense a big change coming. I believe we might be into Okur and Joe for 4 or 5 years…and JS and MW. : )
Agreed completely
We forget that just because players reach their physical prime between 22-25 doesn’t mean that they can’t stop improving, particularly from the standpoint of efficiency. For most starting caliber NBA players the drop-off doesn’t occur until after 30, though it is precipitous once it occurs.
As much as the Hawks are notorious for blowing draft picks, their acquisition of Crawford and wise decision to let Josh Smith and Marvin Williams dangle in RFA (likely saving them a bunch of money/cap over outright extensions) have made them a favorite front office of mine.
Also remember that Teague doesn’t need to become your starting point guard in a championship cycle of, say, 3 years. This draft was weak, even on guards, and you still netted a player like Teague. For the next two years you’ll be picking at a similar position, so there will be more chances. And look at what’s happening with guys like Sessions and Miller now; there are so many good point guards in the NBA today (compared to years past) that if you want a point guard, you can get one with ease. The Kings missed this memo with Beno, and look where it got them.
Straight Outta Vancouver - The Memphis Grizzlies DO Still Exist
All fair points...
But to be the Devil’s advocate, and a point Bill Simmons continually makes (and I tend to agree with though a lot of what he says is crap) is NBA teams that compile assets need to pull the trigger. Roll the dice, take the chance on acquiring the guy that might push them over the top with the players they’ve got on the roster. See the Celtics as a prime example. Would the team improve if they didn’t trade for Garnett? Sure, Al Jefferson’s a good player, and with Paul Pierce they could probably have been a decent, marginal playoff team in the East in a few years.
But that’s not the approach that won them a title.
The NBA, probably more than any other major sport, a team can quickly remake its roster by converting the “pretty goods” for those pieces that can push them into the league’s elite.
The Hawks, instead, seem to merely be waiting for the lightbulb to go off for Josh Smith (newsflash, it ain’t gonna happen with this coach or with the Hawks, maybe with anyone) to finally be that second major piece with JJ, then Marvin/Al/someone stepping up in an offense where they don’t distribute the ball. Doesn’t strike me as a great plan. It isn’t a terrible plan, but its not a good one either.
You can only wait “Three more years, then we’ll be a real contender” for so long….
by jrauch on Aug 25, 2009 11:54 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
just like you with me i agree and disagree
one, i think at some point you have to take a risk (more of a risk than drafting in the lottery), you cannot just go about your business and rely on good fortune. You have to push the envelope.
two though, i think number one is true because every team does it and therefore every team that wins has done it.
So maybe this strategy works with the right players and no one has had the patience to do it.
i guess i am willing to take the risk of holding pat for now unless someone comes by offering a rasheed wallace in the prime of his career for a first round pick like we did with detroit.
but you are right. in two years if it is clear the reasonable “what ifs” are turning into “what didn’t happens” big changes need to happen.
It's amusing
When people say that you have to make a move, or we have to make “title winning” moves. As if a Kevin Garnett or a Pau Gasol is just waiting to fall into your lap at any given time. The Simmon’s analogy that your talking about is a poker analogy. And if you know how to play, you know you have to pick your spots.
I am completely certain that there will come a time to make a big move. Maybe the time was this offseason and we missed our chance. Maybe it wasn’t. We have no way of knowing if there was a move like that out there. But we should know that making a change just for the sake of it would be idiotic.
We are not that far off
Check out my commentary below. The Hawks are not that far off. With no untradeable asset and some cap room, I think Sund will look for a deal( ala the detriot sheed deal) before the trade deadline if the Hawks get off to a good start. Teams are hurting financially so I think the motivation will be there before the deadline. Nothing worse than a losing team that is over the cap.
http://www.peachtreehoops.com/2009/8/13/988333/are-the-hawks-built-for-a
Some thoughts
I don’t necessarily agree with making a move because you think you have to to “win now”, but I also don’t agree with standing pat and not addressing current issues. If you have a team with a bunch of long range shooters, but no inside help, does it not make sense to go find some inside help to make your team a better team overall? I don’t think it makes sense to go get more shooters or to just bring everyone back and think that someone will decide to rebound all of a sudden.
The only time I say you take the risk to sign a big-time player is when you know you are close and what that player provides is something that you don’t have a lot of and will most definitely put you as close as possible to getting the chance at a ring. But you can only do that if everything is in place before hand, and right now, going after a big time low post player would probably do nothing much for us since we have no low post game whatsoever and will never have one so long as Woody keeps running that ISO-Joe. Instead, we could have at least found some moderate help down low to cure our rebounding woes and to help cover our weak defense from the perimeter.
Thinking that your current players will improve is fine, so long as you understand that they are most likely to only improve in the things that they already do well. Players rarely get better at things they aren’t good at to a degree that it makes a drastic change. Bibby hasn’t defended anyone since he was at Arizona, Josh isn’t going to magically start draining all those long distance jumpers, and West isn’t going to become JJ lite. They might get better at draining some additional threes, help defense and dunking, and man defense, repsectfully.
Personally, I see your point Drew on that in three years what we have currently might be just enough to pass everyone else above us in the East, with the exception of Orlando, but I don’t agree that it’s a solid plan. If the plan is to simply make the playoffs each year, then sure, this team can probably do that for the next few years. But if the plan is to win a championship, this team as currently constituted, in this system, is not going to get it done without some help. So, I don’t think it’s “no plan at all” and I don’t think it’s a good plan.
"This is America, if we can’t self-righteously look down on others and blame them for our faults, the commies win."-----Cormican on Bleeding Green Nation w/r/t fans overreacting to the Eagles signing of Michael Vick
nice that picture shows josh is non discriminate
when it comes to filling up stats, there attempting to get a technical.
good find.
Boy, people are harsh when it comes to Jamal Crawford. I’m using the “wait and see” attitude as far as he’s concerned. I’m happy to have him and I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt.
i am with you
i have a high tolerance for volume shooters. it is his defense that leaves me a little skittish though.

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