Who else can sign Joe Johnson in 2010?
by hawksdawgs on Aug 10, 2009 11:54 AM EDT
14 comments
ESPN's John Hollinger and Chad Ford had two great articles (both insider) on the salarly cap and who can sign who next summer. With the prediction that the cap will actually decrease, a bunch of team are in real trouble without signing anyone. Teams hoping for two max players are having their dreams dashed. In fact, Chad Ford lists only nine teams with room to sign a single big name free agent not already on their team. New Jersey, New York, Houston, LA Clippers, Sacramento, Chicago, Minnesota, Oklahoma, and Miami.
The Hawks of course have the ability to offer the biggest contract to Joe Johnson. So for the fan who has Joe's face tattooed on his or her thigh can rest easy that the team has a trump card. They can offer the most money. As I have said before, I am not sure Joe is worth close to 20 million a year nor am I sure the Atlanta Spirit would want to pay anyone that much money. But if the market deems him worth such a number and the Hawks are willing to pay it, one could almost guarantee Joe back. But who is going to force the Hawks to sign Joe to that kind of contract? Who wants to sign Joe at all?
The something crazy has to happen
Miami- Dwyane Wade is not moving to point guard. Joe Johnson is not a true three (despite sometimes being the match up advantage) especially on the defensive end. Overlapping that much on one position for that much money is crazy town. And if Wade goes elsewhere, I suspect the Heat want a bigger draw with their money than Joe.
Oklahoma- They have a soon to be top five player in the league at small forward and just drafted a Harden who I assume they will not be ready to give up on after only a year. Plus, Presti is using his hard earned cap space on another team's free agent. It's just not happening.
Houston- Unfortunately, I have no idea if Joe Johnson secretly has secret stats that shows he makes people better (see Shane Battier).But Houston is close to Joe's hometown in Little Rock, and if/when, the Rockets don't resign Tracy McGrady, this could work. But the Rockets would have to resend the rights of Carl Landry and Chuck Hayes and they would still only have 12 million to spend. I think the Hawks will pay Joe 12 million.
LAC- I am under the firm belief that LA is a draw no matter what team you are talking about, and the Clippers need a shooting guard. I am also under the firm belief that Rick Sund will make a better decision than Donald Sperling. Plus, the team has about 11 million to spend. Again, Hawks are probably willing to pay Joe that rate.
The certainly not a first option but could happen
New York- They want a guy that fills the seats. They want LeBron James or Wade or maybe even Bosh. The only reason I don't have them in the something crazy has to happen is because D'Antoni has good history with Joe.
Good match?
Sacramento- They have Kevin Martin. I could see them wanting Joe at the three for a very tall back court. But it just seems like a weird mix. Plus, the team is in pretty rough financial shape and only has around 10 million to spend.
Minnesota- They might be willing to overspend for a free agent. They need a two guard. But they just drafted two point guards and said they wanted to play them together. They have a center who demands a lot of shots, and Joe has a game that does not necessary make centers better or give them more shots. Plus, does Joe want to go to another rebuilding team where his role will probably reduce. Probably not.
The real players
New Jersey- Probably the best fit of any team. The Nets are on the rise, in a large market, and need an established shooting guard. Plus, they have the most money. Thanks Orlando.
Chicago- A recent fan shot over at BlogaBull showed most fans neither wanted Joe to be the team's first choice or desired to pay him max money. I think Joe would be a good fit there, and in the end, the front office has to make decisions they think are correct so possible fan disappointment only goes so far, but clearly, Wade is number one. Plus to be able to sign any big name free agent they would have to renounce Tyrus Thomas. No sure thing.
What it all means
Even if you believe Joe deserves all the money the Hawks are legally allowed to give him, very few teams have a realistic shot/desire to sign him. Is their a real chance the Hawks could lose him to another team? Yes. But unless they pay him max money (and the Hawks choose not to), the likelihood is very low. A lot of top tier free agents will be on the market. The salary cap is dropping. The Hawks probably should resign Joe but no reason to approach it as a life or death matter. The long term future of the Hawks might best be served by resigning Joe with a keen awareness of how the market could force him to a more reasonable salary.
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NY NY
I would say that NY probably has the best chance of signing Joe for the max. If they get Lebron/Wade/Bosh they will gladly go over the cap to get Joe( they are a big market and can afford to go over the cap) to win .If they dont get any of the “big boys” that will make them more desperate to sign someone like Joe.
a team can go over the cap
but only by way of exceptions. (the biggest being able to sign your own players) but you basically cannot go over the cap more than the midlevel exception on just out right signings. so NYC is only getting one max player unless they work out a sign and trade.
Good info Drew
This only goes to prove that if Sund and the Hawks are attempting to extend him now, they are just as bad as most have always feared. They should let the market set his value if it’s reasonable that no one but us can pay max for him.
They really should wait until after the trade deadline has passed to see where all the potential players (the teams) stand. If it looks like someone could snag him and we still need him to continue our pursuit of a title, then we can sign him up then. If not, then wait until the off-season and try to let the market bring his asking price down and save some money for aqcuiring valuable FA’s in hopes of building a more well-balanced team. Or better yet, get a new coach.
I'd put New York among the real players
If they can’t sign two players to a max contract, can’t they sign one max player and Joe for 12 million(ish). If you think Lebron is going to New York, Joe would make for a great robin.
new york is so tempting
they should probably be in there, but joe is going to have to take a pay cut if he goes there with another max guy. i think a max salary will start at around 16 million a year. but they might be able to do crazy deferment of salary and things like that.
but i dont understand it which i think is exactly what david stern wants.
Maybe during this coming season they’ll find a way to trim another million or 2 off their payroll. They’re not really making any pretense at having a competitive team for 2009-10, so they might be able to cut budget by trading within the 125% exception. I mean, for example, they could send out Wilson Chandler for Joey Dorsey and that saves them about 1.5 million.
So I believe the Knicks could still find sneaky ways to create cap space, since they’ve already mailed in next year.
Would you let Joe go if the Hawks had chance to sign Wade?
Do you think he could fit in here?
I have six locks on my door all in a row. When I go out, I only lock every other one. I figure no matter how long somebody stands there picking the locks, they are always locking three.
Elayne Boosler
in a cocaine heartbeat
I don’t think Wade would come here, but the fact that he is so clearly better than Joe is why I don’t think Joe is a max-caliber player.
If Wade is worth 17 million than Joe’s worth is closer to ten. And I just don’t think you can win a title overpaying a player by 6 or 7 million, unless your in a market that can support you enough to the point where you a paying 20 million in luxury taxes.
i didn't know if he was baron's heir apparent
or a combo guard they hoped would hold down the two.
you may be right. one more non joe location if you are.
He is a 2...
no PG, just a shooter.
New York makes sense when they miss on Wade and James (sorry, I just don’t see them landing either). Joe could be a nice fall back option after those two pass on the big offer.
But what that really tells me is Sund would be nuts to offer him a max extension. If the deal can be under $16 mill per, maybe have it reducing over the length of the deal, but something far lower than max dollars, it makes more sense. Smith isn’t cheap, neither is Marvin, and Horford still must be extended. That will be a sizeable chunk of cap space right there, so adding a big money deal to Joe really restricts what can be done beyond those four.
the reason i am so hesitant on a max joe extension
outside of a market that does not seem to require it is that with marvin, an extended al, josh, and a max joe, it will be very hard to sign anything but bit role players without going over the tax.
we will be stuck with a 7 man team hoping to catch another flip murray for a million dollars.
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