Curious case of Marvin Williams
He has all the requirements to be an all star - physically in terms of athleticism, long arms, speed, strength , height and mentally in terms of basketball IQ, discipline and character yet, for some reason, he has just not been able to put it all together to become an excellent player. Why?
Could it be that he is still very young (last year he was the youngest player on the team) and is still developing? Could it be the coaching? Could it be that he plays in a guard oriented offence that makes him the 4th/5th option on offence and if he was the 1st option, he would be a high scorer? , Could it be that he is just by nature not an aggressive person which tends to make him defer plays to other players and not take risks?
All this points to the fact that WE JUST CANT LET HIM WALK. The upside is still too great to ignore and give up on. I remember Hedo Turkgolou at 24. San Antonio basically gave up on him and prior to that he was a bench player for Sacramento. Now he is a bona-fide all star at 29. Players develop differently it is a lot better to have Marvin for the next 5 years than to give up on him and watch him take off on another team.
I would argue that I would rather trade Josh than Marvin. Why? Because basically;
We can get a lot back for Josh than we can for Marvin at this point in their career.
Josh is a tweener( not quick enough to play the 3 and not strong enough to play the 4) Marvin on the other hand is a classic 3 and has all the tools to be a very good 3.
Trading Josh allows Al to play his natural position of power forward if we can get a legit center back in return. Trading Marvin will leave a very big hole at the 3 spot unless of course we trade Marvin for a better 3 with more upside. I am not sure any team will be willing to do that.
Marvin wants to, loves to, and plays very good team defense which is priceless. I can’t say the same about Josh.The prospects of a forward tandem of Horford and Williams will be brilliant and mouth watering especially on defense. They both have the tools in terms of height, character, athleticism, discipline, basketball IQ and strength.
Please Sund, sign Marvin to a long term deal. Despite the fact that he is not exactly where we want him to be, we just cannot afford to lose him. With all the investments in terms of playing time and money invested in Williams over the past few years, it would be a disaster if he gets traded and flourishes in another team.
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33 comments
Comments
The Hawks aren’t just letting Marvin walk. They’ve given him a qualifying offer and so far nobody else has offered him one. Odds are good he’ll be back in Atlanta for at least one more year. I’m pretty much in agreement with your take on Marvin and Josh. The problem is the Hawks will be just as much a guard dominated team this year as the previous few, and if Marvin’s problem is lack of aggressiveness, it’s not clear that’s something that can be fixed. Of course Josh has his own attitude problems too.
by redwards95 on Jul 8, 2009 12:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Josh is way more productive than Marvin, There is A Reason Marvin is Just Now Signing
Check the playoffs. There is a reason Marvin is just now entering into contract conversations when Chris Paul, Deron Williams, and Danny Granger have long ago signed contracts that totally exceed there Qualifying Offers, because they exceeded expectations. Marvin has been a disappointed or question mark at best. Josh was the 18th pick in the draft and raises his play in the playoffs. You guys that continue to knock Josh are way lost.
by Hawks-Semi Fan on Jul 8, 2009 1:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Even though Marvin has yet to reach the level of Paul, Williams, or Granger, he is beginning to become a much more effective player. Saying that Josh is a better, more productive player just because he was drafted 18th just doesn’t make sense.
by acie4mvp on Jul 8, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's not the only reason
Josh has raised his game in the playoffs both of the years we have been there. I can’t say the same about Marvin. Marvin has yet to raise his came in the playoffs nor has he raised his game for any substantial amount of time in the regular season. Marvin would have been signed earlier if he was living up to expectations. So, to give him 8 mill a year for the long-term, 5 yrs or so, would be a mistake. I would not give him a penny more than the qualifying offer and for 2 yrs max.
by Hawks-Semi Fan on Jul 8, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Futhermore
You are saying just what Im saying this guy is beginning, in your words, and in my words he is still living off of potential. So, he does not deserve 8 mill a year and he does not deserve a long-term contract. Marvin really should be signed and traded if there is a good deal out there.
by Hawks-Semi Fan on Jul 8, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Marvin's value
Josh is a better player he intimidates opposing teams by blocking shots and feriously driving to the hole. Marvin is a better shooter and finesse player. Which can be easily replaced? Marvin
by JONROB on Jul 12, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't say Josh lacks the strength to play the 4
But he lacks the attitude and personality as far as I can tell. He’s strong for his size, and he can sky, and that skillset should translate into the ability to rebound better than he does. But he shows little interest in either establishing a solid post position when he can slip out to the perimeter, and very little interest in blocking out.
I think Marvin may end up being more valuable in the years to come if Josh doesn’t pick up certain areas of his game, but if it’s all the same, I’d keep both around since this team is so much more dynamic having such a pair of athletes in those positions.
by Bronn on Jul 8, 2009 7:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Kinda agree
I just think, if we could get two productive pieces for Marvin and some dead weight like Morris I would do it. On the other hand, I agree that Josh should be just as close to a double-double as Al is.
by Hawks-Semi Fan on Jul 8, 2009 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i agree
i would trade josh for b.wright and biedrins from golden state since they cant have amare.
we get our big man and reserve power forward.
by ca$hmere36 on Jul 9, 2009 4:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Please
No way. That Wright has been garbage so far. Biedrins is okay but not nearly the upside and he doesn’t make the team better.
by Hawks-Semi Fan on Jul 9, 2009 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and...
he would be a back-up and allow horford to go back to his natural position and we would FINALLY have a frontline with size to compete against any one.
besides can we get garet siler hes been bad-ass in d-league!
by ca$hmere36 on Jul 14, 2009 2:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Forget about it
Stop this talk about J Smooth being traded. That will not and should not happen. He plays D, rebounds, blocks shots.
Marrvin is a role piece at best and will not progress beyond that. Trying to send the offense through him would be a total waste.
by The Real Fan on Jul 9, 2009 9:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Josh does all those things when he wants to, but...
Josh gives part time effort. His attitude is poor. Marvin plays better defense, and can hit a jump shot. No one wants to send the offense through him. He’s still improving. Can you say Josh is improving? I think his jump shot might have gotten worse in the playoffs. Anyone care to pull the stats on that? Marvin is a good but not great SF who is getting better, and his next contract isn’t going to break the bank. Josh isn’t even the best PF on this team. He’s lucky we don’t have a true center or he’d be coming off the bench. I’d like to see Josh moved to find that center…
I have six locks on my door all in a row. When I go out, I only lock every other one. I figure no matter how long somebody stands there picking the locks, they are always locking three.
Elayne Boosler
by NaGaNole on Jul 9, 2009 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You move Josh guys should really find another team
You obviously aren’t watching the team I’m watching, Josh will become a All-Star this year while Marvin will continue to live off of potential. Any garbage these big name programs such as North Carolina put out people stand behind it as some type of ultra skilled greatness.
by Hawks-Semi Fan on Jul 9, 2009 11:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
lol @ Josh being an All-Star...
Blocking a few shots and having a couple of highlight dunks doesn’t make you an All-Star. He’s not on the level of Garnett or Bosh, and might never be. Trying over and over to make a shot you can’t make instead of driving to the basket during the playoffs does make you a liability. His bad attitude also makes the team worse.
I have six locks on my door all in a row. When I go out, I only lock every other one. I figure no matter how long somebody stands there picking the locks, they are always locking three.
Elayne Boosler
by NaGaNole on Jul 9, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your lost
Jamal McGlore has been an All-Star in this league and so has Brad Miller. Josh Smith is on the verge of making an All-Star team, book it, I hope you are around when the season starts. So, I can rub it in your face.
by Hawks-Semi Fan on Jul 9, 2009 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Josh isnt an all star
theres a reason Magloire and Miller were all stars, theyre centers. Josh has to get in despite guys like lebron/turk/shard/KG/prince/granger/gerald wallace/igoudala/butler/harrington
well is that enough forward positions to convince you yet?
well now boozer may be on his way east, beasley could improve, and even marvin himself could hurt smiths chances of making the all star team
by pdxlifer on Jul 9, 2009 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We will see
Joe really isn’t an All-Star either, but they have to take atleast 1 player from a team that is Top 4 in its conference. If the Hawks are Top 4 in the East this year, I’m betting its Josh not Joe that gets the call this time around.
by Hawks-Semi Fan on Jul 9, 2009 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm sure glad we pull for the same team...
I hate to see your responses if I were a Celtics or Cavs fan, ouch. We can agree to disagree on Josh. If he didn’t act like a punk, maybe I’d like him more. That aside, I would be more than happy to be wrong about Josh. I’d be a man and admit it as I’m sure your post afterward would “rub it in my face”. Seeing the Hawks win is more important than my negative forecast on member of this team. Josh an All-Star, I just don’t see it. How can you take a player with such a glaring inadequacy in his game as the inability to make a jump shot? If given the chance, I take Marvin’s solid over Josh’s flash all day long.
I have six locks on my door all in a row. When I go out, I only lock every other one. I figure no matter how long somebody stands there picking the locks, they are always locking three.
Elayne Boosler
by NaGaNole on Jul 9, 2009 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Marvin Williams
marvin been improving, but considering the team it is not just enough to be a great shooter. he doesn’t have the quickness needed to consistently impose our will and win at a higher level. I prefer to add a more athletic defender at his position, and bring him back. Jamario Moon should be considered
by JONROB on Jul 10, 2009 1:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Trade Josh?
I have gone back and forth on this for quite some time. . . i guess you could say i’m as inconsistent about this topic as Josh’s play. But the notion of getting rid of Josh and moving Al to his more “natural” position at the 4 just doesn’t fly with me. The Hawks would immediately become a much less athletic team. Don’t want to take anything away from Al, but he was a “natural” 4 in college. And while he is athletic, i don’t think he is enough of a scorer to play the 4 on this team. Most people don’t want to play us because of our athleticism. Al at the 5 and Josh at the 4 are big reasons we are athletic. Getting rid of josh and moving Al to the 4 and getting a “classic” big man to play the 5 will totally change the look and feel of the team.
I mean, not that the athleticism matters a ton right now with the “offense” that Woody has us “running”. I still can’t figure out what they are trying to do.
So, keep Josh, keep Marvin, keep Al at the 5 and keep ZaZa. I think Jamaal Crawford is going to impact this team in a much greater way than we expected. I can see Crawford starting a the 3 over Marvin and also spelling Bibby and Teague at the 1, and Joe at the 2 when Marvin is in the game at the 3. I mean, imagine Bibby at the 1, Joe at the 2, Crawford at the 3, Josh at the 4 and Al at the 5. We shouldn’t have problems scoring with that lineup. And Marvin can be the 6th man of the year.
Also, i have a sneaking suspicion that Josh will be working on a true jump shot over the offseason instead of that weak set shot he kept throwing up there last year. He seems determined to be able to hit the 3.
by shanammons on Jul 11, 2009 12:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Marvin and Josh
Marvin had to deal with the expectation “being selected ahead of Chris Paul.” Because Chris Paul has had such a great career so far, no matter what Marvin does, it does not look at as much. Now since it’s fourth year, he learend how to deal with all that pressure, so he continued to be better.
As far as Josh, you just can’t ignore he is extremely talented both end on the floor. If he just learns how to control his emotion and continue to practice his perimeter game and post up game, he is going to be one of the top players in NBA.
Overall, I think Josh is better than Marvin, but Marvin will have solid career, as long as he can shake off the fact he “had to be selected before Chris Paul”
by Minch on Jul 12, 2009 5:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
your original comment is right on point
Marvin- skill wise is a better player
Josh- is a better athlete (right now)
Marvin- can shoot with range
Josh- sporadic (usually off more than on)
Marvin- can guard 2-4 one on one
Josh- is best as a weak side help defender
I like Josh too but he is more valuable right now as a tradeable peice to get a more specialized position player
by Cmart34 on Jul 13, 2009 9:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
its hard to believe some of you guys are hawks fans
this is more trash talk than other teams make about us marvin is decent currently and probably will be better but admit that currently josh smith is the key to the team if we didnt have josh how would we win ill answer we wouldnt we went quite a few games without marvin and continued to win its true you cant down josh because of his attitude if he continues to put out 20 point games we need them both to be the best team possible but as of now we need josh to be a competitor at all
by mistab50 on Jul 13, 2009 5:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Joe Johnson is the key to us winning.
Tell me what Josh Smith did in the playoffs this year that makes him the one that carried this team? This team’s win and loses fall on JJ shoulders…
I have six locks on my door all in a row. When I go out, I only lock every other one. I figure no matter how long somebody stands there picking the locks, they are always locking three.
Elayne Boosler
by NaGaNole on Jul 13, 2009 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree, but...
…with a small caveat. It’s by design. Any other offensive system than the Iso-Joe, and Smith would be of greater importance. Not that Joe wouldn’t be of significant importance himself, just that Smith would have a much greater role in the success of the team.
Unfortunately, that just isn’t the way Woody is running this team. He runs “the offense will work itself out” system, aka the Iso-Joe, and that makes JJ the most important piece on the court.
However, there’s no way I say we get rid of Smith before Joe. He is younger and is already locked up for a while. Joe isn’t and at this point, I’m not sure I think we should try bringing him back after this upcoming season. We’ll just have to see how this season plays out I suppose.
by Jesse28 on Jul 14, 2009 7:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
a few of his 20 point games help
im just sayin
by mistab50 on Jul 13, 2009 11:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
okay One scenario with Josh
shot clock running down…you pass him the ball…what is he going to do?….You don’t know…… opposing team I guard him loosely away from the rim, and that makes it hard to penetrate. His best play is guard drives then throws the alley to him……I’m not saying he is not important. But his offense is limited, and he doesn’t rebound like he should……a healthy Marvin is more of a scoring threat (when he can get the ball) and a better one on one defender. This team has more scoring options with Al at PF and Marvin at SF
by Cmart34 on Jul 14, 2009 11:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
We all know what Captain Brick will do....
I have six locks on my door all in a row. When I go out, I only lock every other one. I figure no matter how long somebody stands there picking the locks, they are always locking three.
Elayne Boosler
by NaGaNole on Jul 14, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also
I think it’s fairly evident that his defense is horrible when he’s not involved on the offensive side. When it all comes down to it, Josh is a pure emotional adrenaline driven type of player. If he feels like he is being neglected in the offense or he can’t get his game going, then his defense suffers. It’s why I believe that his importance is relative to the style of ball we play.
The offensive/defensive thing is something that I noticed fromt he games I have watched him play throughout his career. When I get a little time, I’ll see if I can pull all the numbers and fins a trend that supports (or doesn’t, haha) this.
by Jesse28 on Jul 14, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this is a pain
I found a site that will let me easily plot stats per game per season, but it lacks the defensive rating stat. Other places track both offensive and defensive rating, but only per season. If anyone has any suggestions for places to look, please let me know, because I really do not want to try calculating this per game for the last five years and then manually plotting it.
I was using StaPlot, which is powered by StatSheet, to create the plot graphs. This is about the only place I know that auto-generates these for sports stats. Unfortunately it is also the site that only tracks offensive rating %, but not defensive. I checked through both Basketball Prospective as well as Basketball-Reference, but I couldn’t find a game-by-game breakdown of those ratings, only per year. I would still have to manually compile and plot the data, which I was hoping to avoid.
Like I said, feel free to drop suggestions. I will also email the guy from StatPlot and see if he can add Def Rating sometimes soon. It looks like all of the required stats already exists to perform the formula, so I would think adding it would be rather simple.
by Jesse28 on Jul 14, 2009 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thanks for the serious leg work jesse
your effort is very much appreciated, as are your comments.
by hawksdawgs on Jul 15, 2009 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No problem
I just wish I could plot all the numbers, if for no other reason than just so I can see it. If I get it all worked out, I’ll make a post about it.
by Jesse28 on Jul 16, 2009 7:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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