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Where and how much should the Hawks spend this free agency?

That ping you feel in your stomach? That yearning for you don't know what? Oh that is NBA free agency, and it has begun.

How much the Hawks should pay is almost as important as who they should get. With all the holes the Hawks have, it is not simply target and sign. The whole thing is a tight rope to get the best player that is the best fit for the least amount of money all while knowing that the best players are being pursued the most. It is a dangerous game of filling needs and overpaying. And I am not going to lie, it freaks me out. The Hawks could make or break quite a few seasons not only with who they sign but how much they sign them for.

And now I am nervously sweating...

For this post, I am assuming anyone and everyone that is restricted and unrestricted is not with the team. Even though qualifying offers have been extended for the likes of our defensive specialist Mario West (sign and trade?).

So here you go the needs for the Hawks in free agency 2009.

A true point guard.

Remember when Joe Johnson was going to play point guard and instead of that working out the Hawks just created an offense where true point guards are unnecessary? Yea, that was awesome.

Well, Joe, Jeff Teague, and Jamal Crawford are not true point guards. I have hope for third year Teague becoming one but not so much rookie Teague.

For the Hawks to push the pace, distribute down low, and create better ball movement a passing point guard that can drive the lane would be a huge asset.

For those clamoring for Bibby to anchor that position, I am a bit perplexed. Bibby is not a true PG. He is a three point specialist that can handle the ball and throw alley hoops with above average touch. He cannot however defend other point guards or penetrate. Bibby could stabilize the position but not improve it.

Three decent names come up to fit the bill. Ramon Sessions, Jason Kidd, and Andre Miller.

  • Scale of 1 to 10 need for the Hawks: 6.5

This goes up of course if the Hawks ran an offense that required a point guard. Still, with unknown that is the Hawks first two acquisitions, a known quantity like Bibby might be what is best if not totally filling the need. We do not want to be forced to give up a second round pick for Anthony Johnson in mid January again.

  • Scale of 1 to 10 willingness to pay: 4

The Hawks drafted Teague to be their point guard of the future whether others think that is a possibility or not. They cannot put a lot of money long term in this position. Neither Jason Kidd nor Andre Miller will probably get long term deals, but their services may require extreme over payment for diminishing returns.

Star-divide

Starting small forward

The Hawks need one. They tendered a qualifying offer to Marvin Williams. It is certainly sizable enough (7.3 million) for Marvin to be tempted to accept and play out his contract if no long term deal fits his liking.

Until that or a contract agreement/sign and trade happens, the Hawks do not have a small forward. And looking from that perspective, Marvin is not a bad fit at all. He is 23, still improving, a good defender, and has the emotional investment of many fans. Nothing wrong with Marvin at the right price, but is the need worth pushing up the willingness to pay?

If it is, let us expand our search. Trevor Ariza, Lamar Odom, Hedo Turkoglu, and Shawn Marion all could be other options. Everyone but Marion is poised to make more money than Marvin. And everyone but maybe Marion probably do not have Atlanta in their top three choices which would require some over payment by the Hawks. Plus, all three of those guys are working with the always treacherous playoff inflation bump in their contract after a good performance for 20 games that it just happens everyone saw.

  • Scale of 1-10 need for the Hawks: 7

The Hawks have at the very least secured a small forward by tendering the QO to Marvin. The team gets him for a year or can orchestrate a sign and trade for another starting three. Finding a long term answer is not the teams most pressing need unless they believe they have a chance and are sold on Hedo Turkoglu. I am doubtful on both accounts.

  • Scale of 1-10 willingness to pay: 7

The Hawks have little money invested in this position right now. Atlanta should be willing to spend a decent amount (7ish million a year for Marvin) simply based on the investment they have already put in him. With all the great small wing players the Hawks face, they cannot skate by hoping Mo Evans can start for 82 games.

Backup center

Shoot, some say the Hawks need a starting center. And since very few are sold on whether Solomon Jones can run without falling down, a backup big man is vital. Zaza loves Atlanta, but he is uninterested in giving the city a hometown discount. And I do not blame him. What the Hawks need though is hustle, rebounding, and a little dirty play. Zaza gives all of that, and the fans love him. But if someone can do those things better, the Hawks would be remiss not to take a look.

Marcin Gortat, Anderson Varegjao, and Antonio McDyess all can do things better than Zaza. The most difficult to acquire may be McDyess even though he might come cheapest. Gortat and Varegjao are fixing to be over paid and the question is if the backup center position is worth it.

  • Scale of 1-10 Hawks need: 10

Yea, I do not want Solomon Jones backing up Al Horford.

  • Scale of 1-10 willingness to pay: 5

It is tough to spend 3 million more a year when Zaza is perfectly serviceable, but the word around Orlando is that they will not match a contract of more than five million a season. A lot of teams have shown interest in Gortat publicly so this may be the case where one Eastern European center overshadows the other so that the Hawks can once again lock up Zaza at a very reasonable rate.

 

 

Are there other more pressing needs? Where would you spend the money? Do you stay up at night thinking about this stuff? Oh, that is just me? Ok.

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The Hawks don’t run a system where a true point guard is going to be useful/used. Primarily that’s due to Mike Woodson, but I read into the fact that Sund traded Acie Law for Jamal Crawford then drafted Teague that Sund plans to keep it that way even if this ends up being Woodson’s last year. That means for better or worse Crawford and Teague are your ‘09-’10 Atlanta Hawk point guards (or more likely Joe is). What the team needs now is one to two more guards or forwards who are good shooters and better defenders than Crawford and Teague. Marvin Williams is a logical answer and the best use of the Hawks’ free agent money. Then Atlanta needs a big man or two not named Solomon Jones to back up Horford and Smith. There are plenty of options, so it’s just a matter of who you can afford after re-signing Marvin. If for some reason Childress decides to come back to the states, then you can try to sign-and-trade him for whatever you are still missing. The resulting team doesn’t figure to be much better than this year’s, but you can’t really expect to go from 47 to 60ish wins without adding an All Star.

by redwards95 on Jul 1, 2009 1:04 PM EDT reply actions  

One Good thing about Joe...

When you take into account his role in the offense, he does do a good job of dishing the ball. Last season he posted a 20.4% assist rate, supplementing Bibby’s 24.5%, and he’s been right around that number for most of his career. We can afford to have a player at the PG position that isn’t a “true” point guard because of Joe’s ability and willingness to pass.

Now, that does not mean that I think Jammal Crawford will be acceptable running the offense. I’ve maintained that we’d be better off getting another guard that can distribute the ball and shoot in part because I think it would help our frontcourt, and in part because it would take more pressure off Joe.

This is all a complicated way of saying that we just need another quality guard that gets high assist totals, rather than the mythic “true point guard”. And this year I think Bibby is probably the best we can do.

Ramone Sessions was always our best shot at getting the kind of point guard that is a real distributer, but now that he’s out of reach, we should turn our attention elsewhere.

by thirdfALCON on Jul 1, 2009 3:04 PM EDT reply actions  

Andre Miller is the guy

I hope we go all out to get him. Would love a rotation of Miller, Joe, Teague and Crawford in the backcourt.

I think 6.5 is waayyy too low for the Hawks’ need at PG. If Jamal Crawford is the starting PG for this team, it will lose 50 games. A guy who shoots that much+(Josh Smith’s attitude X Woodson’s inability to deal with Smith+Woodson’s lack of contract)=MELTDOWN.

Sund just cannot do that. We have got to have a PG.

Would be nice to just hear a peep about the Andersen guy being the backup center. Add him to the mix, and, this team may not guard anyone one, but will probably score 123 a night.

by Fred Pen on Jul 1, 2009 3:17 PM EDT reply actions  

Problem with Miller

is that he’s an atrocious three-point shooter. And I have been converted to the “we must have a spot-up shooter” theory by:
-analysis I’ve seen at a few blog locations that demonstrate the biggest statistical change between 08-09 and 07-08 was 3-point shooting;
—by the observation that 3-point shooting offers both an opportunity for the shooter, when you have a draw
and-dish 2 like Joe, and an opportunity for Joe because defenders cannot sag.
 
Maybe they think Crawford will reach a new 3-point high, who knows; but there is a reason Bibby (a proven 3-point deadeye) had his best shooting year in some time.

by rbubp on Jul 1, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

you always have to balance bibby's three point prowess

with his inability to guard anyone on defense.

as long as the hawks pay bibby for what he brings (3 pt. shooting, stability) and know what he is not (a dishing, driving point guard or defender) than I am good with signing him.

lots of people in the nba can shoot three pointers and not play defense.

by hawksdawgs on Jul 1, 2009 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

I absolutely agree

—we just don’t have anyone to do that other than Bibby at the moment.

by rbubp on Jul 1, 2009 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Don't call Bibby a combo guard...

He’s been dishing for years.

There is no one that can bring the blend shooting, leadership, and ability to run the team then Bibby. Say what you want about his defense, nobody is more qualified to play the point in this type of offense than him.

And it looks like there is no one else that’s even a possibility in free agency. Bibby is the best option for next year, bad defense or no.

by thirdfALCON on Jul 1, 2009 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well, too...

his particular non-driving, set-shooting ways are well-suited to the Iso-Joe.

by rbubp on Jul 1, 2009 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

The Atlanta Hawks ought to Pounce on and be First to Offer 14 year NBA vet and Free agent Mcdeyess a Contract.

The Atlanta Hawks need to offer Mcdeyess a Contract. In 62 games for Detroit 9.6pts 9.6 reb. They need to do that and resign Zaza.

by Jeff Gibson on Jul 1, 2009 4:26 PM EDT reply actions  

Agree

I think that would be an upgrade and he can play both C and PF as a backup.

by Hawks-Semi Fan on Jul 2, 2009 12:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

Mcdeyess had 22 Points and 23 Rebounds in one game last Year

Mcdeyess had 22 points and 23 Rebounds last year For Detroit. He was underpaid Last year at 14 year Minimum, and would be Great Starter Upgrade as well as Backup. He would help Atlanta Hawks Tremendously. I am an Atlanta Hawks Fan.

by Jeff Gibson on Jul 2, 2009 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Mcdeyess is Great.

Mcdeyess is a great Player Although I don’t know his salary Demands.

by Jeff Gibson on Jul 2, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

McDyess was playing for the veteran's minimum because he wanted a ring

If he signs with us i’d have to think it would be for more than that (less than the MLE?), but he’s still worth it even at his advanced age.

by thirdfALCON on Jul 2, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

btw

I forgot Birdman for back up center.

i also could have had a third category. front court banger….staring brandon bass, leone powe, etc.

by hawksdawgs on Jul 1, 2009 5:52 PM EDT reply actions  

LOL at the Pistons

They traded their best PG since I. Thomas, for the right to overpay Ben Gorden when they already have Rip Hamilton, sinking 24 million into the SG position for two players that aren’t all-stars

brb trolling piston’s blogs

by thirdfALCON on Jul 1, 2009 8:49 PM EDT reply actions  

I have to agree

that this looks kind of desperate and stupid. Perhaps there’s a grand plan. They gonna trade Rip? (That’s who Mr. Teague should be emulating.)

by rbubp on Jul 1, 2009 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

DE-TROIT BASK-ET-BALL

is going to need a new definition with those two. because defense is certainly no longer apart of the deal.

by hawksdawgs on Jul 1, 2009 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

However

Detroit has needed a scorer for a while. They go through some of the most dreadful offensive droughts and BG could potentially put an end to that.

by Co Co on Jul 1, 2009 10:57 PM EDT reply actions  

oh he will put an end to that.

dude can light it up. so can charlie v.

they both also will shoot a lot to get there. I would be perfectly happy to have either guy coming off my bench.

by hawksdawgs on Jul 1, 2009 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

I thought AI was supposed to do that for them….but things didn’t work out very well there either.

by Bronn on Jul 1, 2009 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm kind of glad that CV is gone

so that there won’t be any people clamoring for the Hawks to sign him. I mean, yeah, he can be fairly dynamic offensively, but he doesn’t play defense, doesn’t rebound well-he doesn’t have anything you typically hope for in a 6’11 forward.

by Bronn on Jul 1, 2009 10:58 PM EDT reply actions  

these guys are typical grasses is greener on the other side players

i am just too weak minded to see that.

In a world where beer flowed like wine, i would love a josh smith that rebounded like his athleticism dictates he should and scored on dunks and lay ups only and had charlie v came in and scored with the second team.

you can always deal with one defensive liability….sort of.

by hawksdawgs on Jul 1, 2009 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Guys that don't play defense but can score in bunches always end up being overrated.

Here’s a guy who might be a dark horse value pick-up: Shelden Williams. I mean, he defends pretty well (though he’s not a center), he rebounds pretty well-he’s basically Glen Davis with less playing time, in much smaller TV markets.

There’s not really many guys who jump out at me in this FA class as guys the Hawks should go get, aside from guys like McDyess and Joe Smith (and McDyess may even cost too much). There’s not enough money to go after guys like Birdman, Ariza, Odom, Artest, Turkoglu, Lee-even the Paul Millsaps of the world may cost too much.

Finding the bargain FAs who come through this year could be really key considering that everyone is structuring some cap space for next year. That’s why I’d take a good look at Anthony Carter, Von Wafer, and CJ Watson, and just hope we can resign Pachulia.

by Bronn on Jul 1, 2009 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah I was looking at Sheldon the other day

He sucks as the 5th pick in the draft, but he wouldn’t be bad as a forth big man, kinda like the theoretical version of Soloman Jones

by thirdfALCON on Jul 2, 2009 1:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm sure they will be better next year

But they are not gonna be a contender, and that’s what their fans expect. They also killed their cap space long term so they won’t be a contender for at least 4 years now

by thirdfALCON on Jul 1, 2009 11:04 PM EDT reply actions  

the pistons were "bad" for one season

and they made the playoffs.

a little patience for 2010 free agents would have done them well. It is not like Detroit fans were going to be buying new season tickets this year no matter who they signed (and i don’t mean that to be funny because it is not…just true.)

by hawksdawgs on Jul 1, 2009 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

It is a bit bittersweet

I do feel sorry for the people of Detroit, and the Pistons team that won the title was one of my favorite teams ever. So their dismantaling is sad to see

But all that is balanced by how funny it is when GMs do dumb things, especially Gms that are as revered as Joe Dumars.

by thirdfALCON on Jul 1, 2009 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Um…we already had Shelden Williams, and he was garbage then, so he sure as hell is still garbage now. I’d like to see us pick up McDyess…he’s a veteran frontcourt presence that could also mentor Big Al and Josh (Josh more than Al), and get in on Sessions if Bibby balks at the offer that’s been given.

49er and ATL Hawks fan since '86, Braves fan since '90, Bama fan since birth.

by ronniemac03 on Jul 2, 2009 12:10 AM EDT reply actions  

shelden was a horrible fifth pick of the draft

but to get him back the Hawks would not be saying no to other lottery talent or paying him fifth pick money.

much different this time around.

by hawksdawgs on Jul 2, 2009 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

but i like mcdyess more too

just dont think he will think we are close enough to a championship to sign with the hawks.

by hawksdawgs on Jul 2, 2009 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions  

2010

Not quite sure how a back up C is a higher priority than a starting SF. Anyway, I really don’t understand why most people feel that Atlanta should spend, spend, spend, this off season. No matter what move Atlanta makes this off season, they are not winning the East. Therefore First I’m thinking I would let Teague /Crawford run PG(seeing how Chalmers performed last yr. I would be comfortable with that duo). I’d let Bibby walk and see what Flip wants or see what FA maybe Von Wafer’s asking price. That’s saving some money there. With all the big name free agents available next year I really think the Hawks need to determine if Marvin is our SF of the future. If so great and lock him(I’m in favor of that) up which is too late I guess since they made a QO(can the Hawks sign him long term now or wait for another team to make an offer 1st). Next get a feeling on what JJ is leaning toward. To be honest I don’t see JJ with us in 2010-2011. Just a gut feeling. Seeing how we perform JJ might be a midseason trade deadline deal giving us perhaps a prospect or at the very least something for JJ. As far as back up center anybody will do over Solo for 1 season.

by xavip on Jul 2, 2009 12:25 AM EDT reply actions  

OMG WALL OF TEXT

lol, I think no one believes we are gonna be players in 2010, but this year we can get some good value in the free agents since noone else wants to spend.

by thirdfALCON on Jul 2, 2009 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

i said back up center was more of a priority

bc we have given the QO to Marvin already so either for one year or in a sign and trade we will probably have a small forward. we have nothing for back up center.

no QO for Marvin and the starting position is a 13 in importance.

by hawksdawgs on Jul 2, 2009 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

re:2010

I think the hawks should just resign bibby, flip, zaza, and marvin, leave it at that and then try to be players for Dwight Howard in 2010 summer. During that summer we resign JJ and go sign howard, and with smith, horford, bibby, flip, teague and crawford, and possibly another solid bigman- power forward- we will be very solid all the way around!!.
 Then I think we could compete for the east during the 2010-11 season.

by ATLsince1972 on Jul 4, 2009 1:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

There’s no way we can resign all of those guys and have any cap space at all in 2010. That’s part of why I’m upset that they’re talking a 3 year deal with Bibby at this point.

And we really should not, by any measure, resign Flip. We just paid 9 million dollars this year and 10 million next year for Crawford, is basically last year’s version of Flip. And Flip had a career year in every respect last season, which drives his price up, and his chances of repeated are very slim. So you’d be overpaying for a less effective Flip Murray when you already have an expensive doppleganger signed.

I’d much rather look to build this team around Marvin and Horford in the long term (perhaps Teague, depending on how he develops) and look to possibly trade Smith during the season if his trade value holds steady. Then after next season we can make the decision on whether to keep JJ, but he shouldn’t be looked at as the centerpiece of the franchise.

by Bronn on Jul 4, 2009 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

If we re-sign Flip instead of Bibby, we are going to suck. We basically got 2 more (better) Flips on the same day. Like honestly, Flip and Crawford on the same court (and team) as Joe and Smoove? Can you say Golden State? Poor Horford.

by acie4mvp on Jul 2, 2009 12:52 AM EDT reply actions  

Agree

No way I resign Flip over Bibby. I think we can re-sign them both because I don’t see either getting some great offer. If Bibby gets 3 yr 15 mill or anything close he should be more than satisfied and if Flip gets 2 yr 6 mill or 3 yr 9 mill it will be his best payday ever. Re-sign both. Sessions probably will get 6 mill per year or so and I think that’s too much being that he only had one good year in his whole career.

by Hawks-Semi Fan on Jul 2, 2009 1:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

so why not just pay 1 million more per year and sign sessions and take a chance and get younger at PG? I don’t see any value Bibby can have to us after 09-10. A three yr deal for him? That’s borderline suicide to the salary cap for 10-11 and 11-12

by xavip on Jul 2, 2009 1:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

As long as they don't overpay to much it won't kill our cap

The Bucks can match any offer we sign Sessions to and almost certainly will, unless we offer something ridiculous like 5 years 60 million

also Bibby figures to be decent in three years so giving him six million that year won’t be that big of a deal

by thirdfALCON on Jul 2, 2009 1:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

I’m optimistic Crawford will play a little more unselfish on a bonafide playoff team with talent that is better than him.

by xavip on Jul 2, 2009 1:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

I’m optimistic Crawford will play a little more unselfish on a bonafide playoff team with talent that is better than him.

by xavip on Jul 2, 2009 1:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

I say we just go through a... suck-ass year

Trade Josh Smith (IM TIRED OF HIM he’s talented, and I like him but not his feuds with Woodson)
Sign Birdman (Defense,Defense,Defense,Defense)
Resign Bibby (To a veterans minimum, 2 years) and Marvin
In 2010 go for Bosh.

in 2010

Teague (Developed and blossomed into a pass first PG
JJ
Marvin (Has finally gotten into the true shooter/strong defender)
Bosh/Horford
Horford/Bosh
THEN
Jamal (Not likely), Bibby, and Birdman coming off the bench.

The chances of this happening?
1/3000
And I dont know if its possible Cap-wise

But wouldnt that…
KICK ASS?

by FlyYouFalcons on Jul 2, 2009 1:16 AM EDT reply actions  

A suck-@$$ year still would be a playoff appearance w/ your 09 roster. What more could we ask for if we are preparing for 2010?

by xavip on Jul 2, 2009 1:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

I love it when people say stuff like...

Sign Bibby to the veterans minimum, and sign Chris Bosh like the players have no say in it.

by thirdfALCON on Jul 2, 2009 1:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Oh CAN I PLAY!?!?!

Go back in time to 1992 Barcelona and bring back the entire dream team with us. Sign them all to the veteran’s minimum then we’ll have an unbeatable team and we’ll only have to pay like 12 million for it.

And you know we’d get every call.

by thirdfALCON on Jul 2, 2009 2:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

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