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First impressions on the Jamal Crawford trade

Well, I had originally planned my first post as co-author to be a pre-draft look at how much work Rick Sund had to do this offseason, and then he beats me to the punch by doing something.  Well, now at least I have something big about which to write.

My initial reaction to this trade was positive.  The Hawks traded their junk and got back a legitimate NBA player.  Certainly, Jamal Crawford is overrated to an extent by virtue of being a volume shooter, but there's no doubt that he's a talented NBA player whereas the jury is still out on Acie Law IV and the corpse of Speedy Claxton.  So here's a quick look at the numbers.  Numbers and tables after the jump.

Star-divide

Jamal Crawford:

Year eFG% TS% AST% STL% TOV% USG%
2008-09 47.9 54.5 18.1 1.1 11.2 22.8
Career 46.9 51.7 22.4 1.7 12.6 23.1

 

 

 

 

Numbers courtesey of basketball-reference.com

The numbers support the assertion that Crawford is strictly a volume shooter.  He was used last season on 22.8% of team possessions while only assisting on 18.1% of made baskets, and without a high turnover rate.  He managed to take a lot of shots without being the primary ball-handler (generally this was Stephen Jackson).  His eFG% is lower than any of the 8 players from the Hawks' rotation last season-I have no doubt we'll grow very tired of seeing him chucking shots at some point this season.  But his TS% is about the same as Mike Bibby, and better than Joe Johnson, so he's a decently efficient scorer.

His assist % is extremely low for a point guard, where he nominally played about half his time last year.  18.1 puts him about halfway between Mike Bibby and Flip Murray.  There aren't too many comparable players in terms of assist rate but among them are Carmelo Anthony, Jarrett Jack, Tyronn Lue, Mike James, John Salmons, and Brad Miller-so basically guys that have the ball a lot (when they're on the floor) but generally aren't primary ball handlers.  In short, Jamal Crawford is not a point guard.

His numbers (most especially efficiency numbers) from last season are very comparable to Flip Murray's.  Here's a quick look for comparison.

Flip Murray:

eFG% TS% AST% STL% TOV% USG%
50.1 54.3 14.0 2.4 12.5 24.3

 

 

 

Flip Murray had a higher eFG% than Jamal Crawford (just over league average) but the TS% was about the same.  This is due to the fact that Jamal Crawford was able to get to the free throw line more often (5.0 per36, compared to Flip's 4.2 per36), and the fact that he shot a much higher % at the FT line (87% compared to 76%).  The league average for TS% was 54.44, so both players were right around league average in terms of scoring efficiency.  Flip also posted a higher usage rate, slightly inflated by the fact that he was more likely to turn the ball over.

In essence, we're getting a very similar player to the 2008-09 Flip Murray.  This may not seem like a big deal, except that the 2008-09 version of Flip Murray was rather valuable.  A man who can create his own shot, serve as a volume shooter, and be around league average in terms of efficiency is a fairly valuable asset (read, Joe Johnson).  While we could have resigned Flip Murray for less money than we're paying Jamal Crawford, expecting him to repeat what was in every way a career year is crazier than hoping Josh Smith can improve his 3 point shooting.

The big question at this point is what Jamal Crawford's role will be.  He is by no means anything resembling an NBA PG and should not be asked to impersonate one.  I'm hoping and praying that Mike Woodson carries over the lesson he learned with Flip Murray last year into his usage of Jamal Crawford.  For a much-maligned head coach, it's no stretch to say that his coaching and usage of Flip Murray last season is perhaps his best work to date.  If he can treat Jamal Crawford the same way, Crawford could be a very useful piece next season.

Very quickly, here's a few things I could see happening going forward:

1) Hawks resign Mike Bibby, resign Marvin Williams, draft a PG at 19, and use Jamal Crawford in the Flip Murray role-this is probably the best things the Hawks can do going forward if Bibby can be signed inexpensively.  But the best case scenario still doesn't leave the Hawks under the cap, and they'd have a tough time filling out the roster with just the MLE and LLE.

2)  Hawks resign Flip Murray, resign Marvin Williams, start Jamal Crawford at PG, and draft someone who never gets a chance to shoot-please no.  This is about the worst possible thing the franchise could do at this point.  Flip is certainly more affordable than Bibby, but he's not a PG, and neither is Crawford, and having both of them would make my eyes explode.  And, as I've said before, Crawford is not a point and shouldn't be asked to pretend he is.

3)  Joe Johnson moves back to PG while Crawford starts at SG-I'd actually hate to see this too.  Joe Johnson is kind of the PG by default on this team since he just dribbles all the time, but we've already tried this and it's basically a failure.  I'd love to know what this team could have been last year if Joe had more of a PG mentality, but any scenario where he and Crawford are starters is just complicating the problem that there's only one ball.

Looking forward to see what happens in the draft tonight.

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4) The Hawks draft a PG then sign or trade for a veteran PG not named Mike Bibby (Alston? Rondo?). The guy who is drafted takes over Law’s role as bench warmer/garbage time PG until Woodson leaves/is fired while the veteran becomes the starter with Crawford replacing Murray.

by redwards95 on Jun 25, 2009 1:08 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

My post was getting lengthy, so I didn't exhaust all the various scenarios

But certainly on my mind is that there’s veterans out there like Bobby Jackson (blah) and Tyronn Lue (much bigger, more disgusted blah).

And if negotiations fall through with Mike Bibby, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Marvin Williams moved in a sign-and-trade. Unfortunately, I think his trade value is diminished by the back concerns, so it’s not very desirable to move him at this point. I think his true value is probably upward of his trade value at this point.

by Bronn on Jun 25, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Crawford-->Draft

Just found this blog. I couldn’t agree more – I like the Crawford trade, IF the team sees Crawford as a slightly better (if significantly more expensive) version of Flip. If instead they view him as a solution at PG and draft, I don’t know, Psycho T or (please no) some stiff from the Euroleague, then this trade starts to look disastrous.

by broncoclark on Jun 25, 2009 1:45 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Nice, blog Bronn, Pretty much sums up my feelings on the trade.

I think the best scenario is signing Ramon Sessions. He just seems to fit this team better than Bibby now. Here’s hoping the bucks are as dumb as they usually are and use their newly aquired cap space on Villinuava.

by thirdfALCON on Jun 25, 2009 2:09 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I’m hoping they have something in the works to get Rondo..and if so I bet Marvin Williams is involved. The Hawks do need a little more financial flexibility, so I could see the scenario of sign and trade a PG along with Marvin as Boston would certainly like to give Paul Pierce some young athletic support, in exchange for Rondo and a draft pick/Tony Allen/Leon Powe/other scrubs.

by rbubp on Jun 25, 2009 2:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

doubt that’s going to happen, the Celtics are only gonna trade Rondo if Allen goes with him, and we really don’t need to pay Ray Allen 18 million next year

by thirdfALCON on Jun 25, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Right, ok.

by rbubp on Jun 25, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

lol your gonna big time me now?

by thirdfALCON on Jun 25, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good Move....keep Bibby

Starting 5- Bibby, Joe, Smith, Williams, Horford
bench- Evans, Crawford, Zaza, Solo…don’t know if Crawford is going to want to come off the bench.
I’ve heard Bibby wanted to stay, not a lot of teams looking for a vet PG that wants to start, if he goes anywhere else he will sit on the bench.
I think more teams will make Flip offers and it will hard to keep him based off of what he did last yr. There were times when he was on the floor in the 4th qtr closing out games. He could start on another team.
just take the best player available at 19, if there is no clear cut solid PG. You can always trade we are looking for bench help anyway not starters

by Cmart34 on Jun 25, 2009 3:29 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Congrats on the first post, Bronn

On that nice 82games page of sortable shooting stats, I learned that Crawford made 40% of his two-point jumpers which accounted for 48% of his FGA. Another 38% of his FGA were three-point attempts of which he made 33.8%. Needless to say, it’ was a saving grace that he got to the free throw line so often (approx. 150% of his career rate prior to 08-09) last season.

by Hoopinion on Jun 25, 2009 3:35 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Hollinger pointed out that he was a very poor finisher…which, as you said earlier, puts him squarely within the desired dynamic on this team, where JJ is the only guard who drives the ball.

It is certainly true that spot-up shooters are needed even in the Iso-Joe, and Crawford adds a second one if Bibby is kept.

by rbubp on Jun 25, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’m having a hard time absorbing that remark by Hollinger given the numbers. According to the again great 82games.com stat page, , Jamal Crawford shot 60.2% on his interior shot attempts. Compare this with Flip, who is by all means a very good finisher at 61.0% on his interior attempts. The difference in percentage there is about 3 made baskets over the course of the season.

Maybe Crawford could have failed in converting some and-1 opportunities? But it’s tough to count that against a guy who did manage to get fouled and, at 87%, often hits both free throws.

by Bronn on Jun 25, 2009 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

great trade

all the statistical analysis of other posters aside, this is a great trade for the warriors. crawford is one of those players that can have decent stats and put up decent numbers but in terms of contributing to the team’s success he does nothing. all the guy really does is score and he’s a volume shooter. he’s a pg that doesnt pass or run a team very well, his defense is average to poor, and he doesnt rebound. plus he expects starters minutes. so on the warriors he wasnt doing much but scoring and the reality is that is the easiest stat to find amongst nba players. the warriors need a real pg, monta isnt that, hes a sg in a pg body. they need someone who can run the team and hit an open shot and most importantly, help them execute down the stretch which they were severely lacking last year. he’ll make a good backup on the hawks, at least as good as flip murray.

by Hugh Mungustic on Jun 25, 2009 3:48 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

If anyone in the league has a chance to break out with a change of scenery, it’s Acie Law. Mike Woodson’s general disdain for young PGs put him in a situation where his minutes decreased his second season, much despite the fact that he was both healthier and more effective. His role in Atlanta wasn’t going to change-he was going to continue to be forced to act like Mike Bibby, passively waiting for the ball on the perimeter.

He may end up having value in an environment like Golden State, but he’s probably not the ideal guard to play opposite Monta Ellis since neither are very good jump shooters. But Acie deserved a chance to play somewhere, and he should get it with Nelson.

by Bronn on Jun 25, 2009 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

the hawks had 8 real live nba players last year.

they traded two players that were not part of that group of eight (either because of lack of skill, injury, or poor management) and they got a real live nba player in return.

I am all for having another flip like player on the team. and if the stats want to paint him as such great.

Still, i freak out about the trade because
1. mike woodson is still our coach.
2. we didn’t pay flip murray 10 million dollars last year.

by hawksdawgs on Jun 25, 2009 4:02 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Concerning point No. 1-Crawford is exactly the kind of player Woodson wants. A guy who will play 1-on-1 basketball without having any plays drawn up.

That’s the problem.

by Bronn on Jun 25, 2009 7:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But don't forget

that Flip gave an outsized return on his salary that he would likely never duplicate again. Was his role a 9 mil role? Well, Zaza gets 8 for his, and considering Crawford is only 29, it doesn’t look like a bad deal financially.

by rbubp on Jun 25, 2009 7:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I thought Zaza just got paid about 4.5 a year?

I hope we can resign Bibby and Zaza. We probably will have to do a sign and trade with Marvin because our salary cap is screwed this year.

by KC Ryan on Jun 25, 2009 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

How can our Cap Be Screwed?

We have 21 mill less on the books as of now than we paid last year. How are we screwed? Marvin is not going to get a big contract from anyone. So, the 7 mill qualifying offer will be good enough. Better yet, if someone really wants him and makes the right offer let him go.

by Hawks-Semi Fan on Jun 26, 2009 9:34 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

P.S.

The 21 mill includes Marvins qualifying offer. So, take that away we have 28 mill less than we spent last year available. Marvin nor Zaza are gonna get a crazy deal people. They will be back if the Hawks want them.

by Hawks-Semi Fan on Jun 26, 2009 9:35 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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