Chris Paul minus Al Horford
I've never done a fan post, hope it works. Okay, so everyone assumes the Hawks would be light years ahead of where they are right now had they drafted Chris Paul over Marvin Williams. I think people make this assumption while including Al Horford in the players that he'd have to work with. If the Hawks had taken Chris Paul there's a chance Al Horford never comes to Atlanta because maybe the Hawks wouldn't have been a lottery team. There are a lot of what if's. My question to you: Do you think this team is a championship contender with Chris minus Al? I'm just thinking about how championships have been won in recent memory and it's primarily been on the backs of good PF\ C along with a really good shooting guard as the main components. I think we have a better chance at becoming a championship team if Al can develop into what we all hope he is. I don't see Chris Paul leading a team to a championship without a legitimate big man. If Chris Paul were here without Al would the Hawks be better? Is it really that simple?
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We wouldn't have traded a bunch of stuff for Bibby and wouldn't have drafted Teague.
Maybe we could have Dejuan Blair or Sam Young or Zaza starts.
If we had a good driving-to-the-hole PG, we wouldn’t always be so stressed about iso-Joe since Woodson would know to give the ball to CP.
by coachkcastellon on Dec 10, 2009 1:59 PM EST reply actions
YOU CANT WIN A CHAMPIONSHIP WITHOUT A LGIT BIG MAN
Give me Marvin and Horford over CP3 anyday !!!! My theory is that a good point guard can take you from lottery to legit but he cannot take you to the very top of the NBA.
With CP3, Josh Smith would improve dramatically and Joe Johnson would lose production.
I think it raises the question of whether Joe would have been necessary to sign more than anything. Use that money on a more athletic two guard or legit center. and CP3 would make those FA signing easier with people wanted to play with him.
still, i am fine with how the Hawks ended up. sensational PG have not shown the ability to lead teams to championships in the last 15 years.
Smoove would be like West, except West can make jumpers. I’m not sure I’d want to see Josh being that wide open 15 feet away from the basket. I think Joe being less productive is debatable. His percentages would be infinitely better and he would hit more three’s. He would probably have less assists though. And I think we would just try to draft and trade for a bunch of shooters and one above-average center, all of whom would seem better than they really are. And then we could trade them for more than they are worth. But then Acie and Teague wouldn’t have been drafted. No thanks.
I'm actually okay
with how the Hawks turned out, if we can maximize everyone’s strengths, namely, Al Horford. My hope is that maybe they can sneak a championship ring out of it like Detroit. I mean maybe they’d be better today with Melo had they chosen him over Darko, but either way they got a ring so it’s whatever.
I've mulled this over before
And it would depend on how the roster got constructed following that. There’s a whole lot of “If, then” to do, when we’re going over the major personnel moves in the past 4 years. Here’s how I see it.
1) I’m assuming Al Harrington was on his way out anyway, though many people say that he was traded as a result of drafting Marvin Williams. He was too expensive to keep on a non-contending team alongside Joe Johnson.
2) I’ll assume we still make the stupid Shelden Williams pick, since Chris Paul wouldn’t have solved our big man issues. Chris Paul as a rookie probably doesn’t help the Hawks enough that we’re out of the top ten, and Shelden would have fallen to us regardless.
3) In 2007, there’s no way we’re drafting 3rd in the lottery with Chris Paul. Therefore, we forfeit that pick to Phoenix. But we’ll still have the 11th in the 2007 draft, as a result of the Harrington S&T. At this point, we’re still running with Zaza at center, but he probably looks a bit better on a Chris Paul-led team. We’re probably looking at Thaddeus Young, Al Thornton, or Julian Wright, perhaps Sean Williams. BK really liked small forwards, so I’m going to pretend we took Al Thornton, to make up for not having taken Marvin previously-Thaddeus Young is ideal, but I’m keeping this semi-realistic.
4) During the 07-08 season, we don’t trade Shelden Williams, Lorenzen Wright, Anthony Johnson, and Tyronn Lue for Mike Bibby. I can’t help but think BK would have tried to trade for a big man, but it’s tough for me to retroactively determine exactly what kind of deal we’d have worked out. I’ll just assume that the Hawks wouldn’t have been able to get a decent big for their junk pieces-just like I didn’t think they’d be able to get a decent point guard out of that junk.
5) We win 40ish games in 2007-08, so I’ll just pretend we end up with the 18th pick, still in need of a big man. We take JaVale McGee in a no-brainer for BK.
6) BK becomes the man who DID draft Chris Paul, and therefore, he’s retained during the ’08 offseason. And we have plenty of money to spend in ’08 as a result of not trading for Mike Bibby, hanging on to some expiring contracts. AS a result of these two events, we retain both Childress and Josh Smith.
7) Here’s where it gets really tough for me. How good would have been in 2008-09 without Al Horford? We’re probably still using Zaza as our starting center at this point. But then, he had a very good last year for us in reality. Probably 50+ wins good. Probably still the fourth seed. There’s no way to say really. Here’s how that team would have looked:
Paul/Johnson/Thornton/Smith/Pachulia Bench:Childress, McGee, Solo (maybe Flip).
I’ll say 57 wins. I’ll also predict that we lost in the second round to Cleveland game series.
8) This gives us basically the 26th pick in the 2009 draft. I say that BK makes neither the best nor worst possible decision, which basically means Taj Gibson.
In the offseason, we sign CP3 to rather hefty contract. Zaza is a bit more questionable-he’d be a free agent coming of a season as a starter for a 57 win team. His price tag goes up. Solo walks during the offseason, so all we really have as a big man in this fictional scenario is Javale McGee (I’ll assume that BK continued to misuse his second round picks, so we have no one else useful). We sign Zaza for somewhat more than he’s making now (maybe $6.5 million per). Then we split the MLE to get some depth-maybe a Dahntay Jones and Brandon Bass. Some other minimum contract player is signed as CP3’s backup.
Here’s your 2009-10 alternate universe Atlanta Hawks:
Chris Paul/(minimum contract-maybe Jason Williams)
Joe Johnson/Dahntay Jones
Al Thornton/Josh Childress
Josh Smith/Brandon Bass
Zaza Pachulia/Javale McGee
Assume Chris Paul is perfectly healthy. I’ve got Josh Childress on the bench behind an inferior player because, well, Woodson liked him on the bench. It’s a better team than we’ve got presently, but it’s not lightyears better. We’re struggling to stop big men defensively, but Chris Paul and Josh Smith can drive and create some foul trouble. Josh is still great with the help defense, so we’re not terrible at defending the post. Joe Johnson is posting awesome efficiency numbers because, between him and Paul, teams can’t collapse on either player. Joe probably doesn’t get run into the ground as much, and Chris Paul creates a lot of open looks for him. This team has a very good chance at making the conference semi-finals, and given the right match-up, could reach the finals.
You can debate some of those moves, but I tried not to make things overly ideal or worst-case scenario. BK wouldn’t have made perfect picks repeatedly, Woody wouldn’t become an offensive genius just because he had Chris Paul.
Here’s the downside: The team I just created would be in its last year of truly contending. It’s over the luxury tax, Al Thornton is in his last year on a rookie contract (and might walk), and there’s no way they’d be able to extend JJ. As you can see this year, the fanbase wouldn’t necessarily jump on board even with a really good team, so ownership can’t afford to go way over the luxury tax. So this team would be in danger of losing two starters, one all-star, following this season.
Now that I think about it, though
Maybe this team I made up wouldn’t be over the luxury tax this year…
JJ-14.9 million
CP3-13.5 million
Josh Smith-10.8 million
Zaza-6.75 million
Childress-7.5 million
Thornton-1.9 million
McGee-1.5 million
Bass-4 million
Jones-2.5 million
I think, in my head, i was counting the 10 million we’re paying Jamal Crawford. So maybe this team is in a bit better position.
i assume with zaza at center
we just put him in the corner so he does not get in the way and run pick and rolls with Josh Smith. The alley-hoop thing just does not work with zaza.
alley-layup on the other hand…..
I think you can stop that post pretty quick...
add Chris Paul instead of Marvin, and who knows how where we are in the draft or what free agents we target. Does Joe go through this strange, “I am no longer the lead dog” transformation we are currently watching earlier? How does that end? Does Josh develop faster or does he flake out completely? Just impossible to say how Paul impacts things, both in player additions after that draft AND in player development.
I went to great lengths to discuss this
For 2 of those drafts, a difference of 5ish wins has very limited impact on draft status. On the most recent draft, having added another 10 wins, I just made a supposition about what we’d have needed.
I kind of went for median players in terms of value/productivity to give the best feel, overall, for where this team is.
If you don’t agree with my entering “what-if” territory, there was no need to comment on this thread/comment. It’s all supposition. It’s not really relevant, but since someone else posed the question, I added things that I’ve been ruminating on over the past couple of months.
I know well that it’s pointless to sit here and speculate, but if there’s actually some back and forth which creates discussion (Ie “I think we’d have taken Thaddeus Young, had he been available, since he’s local”) then there’s a conversation, which is the entire point of having Fanposts.
Dude, don't be so sensitive...
I’m just saying the end result of Paul is who knows what. You say 5 wins, but is that true? He had over a 10 win share as a rookie. He’s a big time difference maker, and paired with Johnson and Smoove running up and down the floor can make for a big jump in wins. Do we draft Salim Stoudemire, and if so, does his shooting work better in that style? I disagree on the win difference, and think it is signifcant enough to make the guesswork to difficult. Does he accelerate Smoove’s development, or destroy it? Milwaukee won the 8th seed that year with Mo Williams and Michael Redd mostly, and some defensive bigs. Could Paul and Johnson been as good, with some decent defensive bigs to put us in the playoffs with Paul as a rookie? The East was pretty weak Paul’s first 2-3 years in the league, it’s not hard to think we make the playoffs year 3, if not as a rookie or second year player. That makes a huge change that just can’t be guesstimated.
I'm glad someone broke this down...
I’ve gone through this scenario several times in my head but always gave up after I realized that our team would go from heavy on forwards (Smoove, Marv, Chill, Shelden) to heavy on guards (CP3, JJ, etc.) and realizing that I’d have to do some major research to predict the future (kudos Bronn!)
Obviously, there’s no way to predict what would happen with all the players’ development (and Bronn, I think your breakdown is the best we can get in terms of actual answers to some the “what ifs”), but when I’ve tried (and failed) to break this down in the past, I’ve always run into to these development questions that you brought up Sanchez.
In my opinion, I definitely think Good Josh would have appeared sooner (b/c I think CP3 would have been more forceful about telling Josh that he’s not getting the ball unless he’s down low… a la Bibby’s comment to Woody about Josh’s positioning during the playoffs last year). However, that might not be a good thing salary-wise. With CP3 allowing Good Josh to develop sooner, I think Josh gets close to max-salary offer this past summer. Add that to JJ and CP3’s max or near-max salaries, and I think we start getting strapped for cash.
Moreover, I really start to worry about our front court depth and defense, and I’m not sure I trust BK’s ability to draft or sign a solid Horford type of down-low guy (I still think he tries for a few swingmen before realizing our lack of frontcourt depth). Shelden probably still happens, and then I imagine that BK tries to make a Speedy type of make up signing for a big man (Pryzbilla, Ben Wallace, Zo?). Anyways, this is about the point when my brain starts to explode and I give up.
However, after thinking about it more today, it comes down to this for me — Are CP3 +10-20 BK draft pick in 2007 + Good Josh starting in 2006-07 (w/ higher salary) > Marvin + Horford + Good Josh starting in 2009 (after signing $10 mill contract) ? For me, while I would enjoyed winning sooner, I think I’ll take Marv and Horford over CP3 and the pick. Of course, hindsight is 20/20
And another factor...
do we see Iso-Joe, or is Woody for to go with Iso-Paul offensively? How does the addition of a PG that can push the pace and create for others change what Woody does, and what does that mean for Woody here?
we would not have shelden if we took Paul the yr before
I assumed we got better and instead of having the Shelden pick we get GS or Houston’s Pick that would have given the Hawks Rudy Gay….Paul, Joe, Gay, Josh, CTR (not sure if we still sign Zaza)…but that team is young fast, and high flyers. I i assumed to that we took Bass in the 2nd round, and solo comes off the bench ..still need a ctr…but this team is really good and FA’s want to come and play here
You forget BK was fixated on Shelden
Shelden Williams wouldn’t have been a top ten pick if BK hadn’t fixated on him. If the Hawks in 5ish more games, they drop down a few spots, but I believe Shelden still ends up being the target there. He actually refused to even work out Rudy Gay or Brandon Roy and everyone in the world knew Shelden was going in the 5th spot.
For second round picks, BK never made good use of a second round pick, so I’m not going to make any assumptions that he’d end up with useful guys like Brandon Bass or Boobie Gibson or DeJuan Blair.
But Shelden also wouldn't have been asked...
to be a top 5 pick either. Shelden, is not a starting PF or C, but he is a solid role player. Get him at 12, or 15, or 17, and the pressure to perform at a high level immediately isn’t there. We can likely sign a decent C with Paul further limiting the reliance and pressure on the Landlord. As said above, Paul is a dynamic difference maker whose impact just can’t be quantified or judged without actually having it take place.
Smooth in the Tyson Chandler roll...
that’s an automatic 12 per. Add Joe on the wing, and Salim spotting up, Zaza destroying the glass. Does that change what happens with Chill, playing D, attacking the glass, and popping mid range jumpers non-stop on pick and pops? It could turn into a playoff team very fast, especially considering the general crappiness of the East in those days. And who knows what pieces we add going forward, both through the draft or free agency with a point guard that can make you look as good as Paul makes his teammates.
Exactly noted...
Smoov in the Tyson Chandler roll… The Hawks would be the Atlanta version of the Hornets with Chris Paul. And to note, New Orleans have only 2 playoff appearances and 2 winning seasons under Paul’s watch and are on pace to miss the playoffs this season.
by jdewayneatl on Dec 10, 2009 10:06 PM EST up reply actions
Paul has never had a teammate as good as Johnson...
those Hornet teams have had David West and little else but one dimensional players. We had much better talent to surround him with than any of those teams.
Woody is a very important factor
because we’ve seen his disdain towards rookie point guards, so who’s to say Chris Paul turns into the Chris Paul he is today if he were coached by Woody?
I thought about that
But considering that we weren’t competitive in 2005, and Woody’s job wasn’t on the line then, I figure Chris Paul gets his chance. And he’s basically the best PG in the NBA right now, so it would take an avalanche of horrible coaching to prevent him from breaking through.
It’s not all reasonable to believe he couldn’t beat out Tyronn Lue for a starting job.
Not exactly...
with Paul, does his play increase with the increased space, working the pick and pop with Paul, or just waiting on the baseline and wing for open jumpers when Ds collapsed on a driving Paul. Chill was also a solid rebounder and would likely have done well there maybe picking up a handful of junk putbacks per night. Add Paul to Chill, and he likely puts up #s that gets him a solid deal to stay stateside.
I don't see it that way
Childress went to Greece because he could make a lot of money there. But playing for a team that had already been successful AND had more money to give him (because we don’t have Bibby, plus we had Wright’s expiring contract, and TLue’s expiring contract), I think we keep him. If we don’t change GMs during that offseason, I see BK making it a priority to get both Josh’s back.
I think you're
underestimating Woody’s love for veterans vs rookies. He’s always been more likely to go with the vet unless he absolutely couldn’t. I’m not sure he would have played Paul over Lue.
Marvin averaged 24.7 minutes per game as a rookie
Just for comparison. And was starting in his second year. I think a lot of the reluctance to lean on Acie was the result of a win-now mentality, hurting his development.
But we haven’t had a legit young PG on this roster ever-Acie Law is probably the most talented of those that have moved on, and it’s insane to compare him to Chris Paul. Talent shines through, eventually. Not even Woody could manage to keep one of the 10 most talented NBA players on the bench, regardless of his dislike for Paul.
Perhaps you're right
But, would Woody let Paul push the ball up the floor and make the decisions? Do you think he would change his “offense” and let Paul just run the show?
We'll never be certain about that
But I don’t think that would-be offense would really bear much of a resemblence to the JJ Iso concept we’re used to seeing, either. It might be a large series of JJ and Chris Paul isolations, but the fact that both guys are good passers and can hit 3s really opens things up, and teams wouldn’t be able to focus so much defensive attention on JJ.
I think, eventually, they’d at least accidentally run a pick and roll with Smoove and Chris Paul and realize that it’s awesome enough to repeat.
Slow down..
There are a lot of variables. Firstly, if you are doing the 2005 draft over… There is no question that the top two picks are CP3 and Deron Williams. Bogut is probably still pretty high. Granger is definitely in the conversation at the top, as is Bynum. Marvin is dropping at most a handful of spots if you do that draft again. Given that Marvin is a solid NBA stater, I don’t think you should complain too much about his costing a #2 pick. He hasn’t fulfilled on all his upside, but I think that hype was misleading. A lot of top picks turn to total busts. Any guy that is a starter is not bad. He is probably above average overall for a #2 pick (don’t forget about guys like Darko, Stromile Swift, Steve Francis- all #2 picks). I know with such a high pick not turning into a superstar its a bit disappointing, but drafting isn’t a perfect science…
Also, Marvin is still just 23. A full year younger than CP3, and two full years younger than Deron. He could still breakout. Though I doubt he will since his game has stabilized, their is still some upside. As a former Seattle fan forced to adopt a new team (I moved to ATL) I tend to think Marvin gets a bad rap. I wasn’t around when he was picked and subsequently disappointed everyone. I look at what he is now and see a guy who has a lot of versatility, is a good defender, and in the last couple years has evolved into a knock down three point shooter. Marvin is a guy you want on a winning team..
CP3 was not “all that” until his 3rd year or so.. people were pretty convinced after the Jazz had that deep playoff run a few years back that Deron was going to have a much better career than CP3. I am not sure ATL is that much better with him in his first couple of year than they were with Marvin. Maybe a handful of spots, who knows how the lottery balls fall. Assuming we didn’t get Horford, we could still have gotten Noah later. As mentioned above we wouldn’t have needed to do the bibby trade either. We could even have packaged the Acie Law pick with the other 1st to get Horford anyways…
I think pretty much however you slice it, CP3 over Marvin would make the team better, if not elite right now. Maybe no marvin means childress starting and he is still here too. I think you well point out though that Al Horford is a pretty nice consolation prize- second best player of that draft (behind KD).
Hawks plus Chris Paul, minus Marvin Williams and Al Horfod
Simply put… The Atlanta Hawks would be the New Orleans Hornets with Chris Paul instead of the core group we now have.
I’d rather have Marvin and Al and I can’t wait to get Childress back (hopefully)!!!!
Hawks plus Chris Paul minus Marvin Williams, Al Horford, and Josh Smith
Hell for all we know the Atlanta Spirit Group would have easily let Josh Smith walk seeing that there were two stars on the team to build around in JJ and Paul.
I’d rather have Marvin, Al, and Smoov and I can’t wait to get Childress back (hopefully)!!!!!
I probably should have
included a poll. Maybe next time. The vibe I get is that we’re okay with what we have.
Interesting post. I have to think the Hawks would be better off since Paul is a much better player than Marvin and Horford, while a nice player, is hardly a irreplaceable superstar.
Now do the same thought experiment with the Hawks taking Roy instead of Williams.
This gets to a fundamental question though...
Is a team with a superstar but lesser role players (think: Kobe’s pre-championship post-Shaq Lakers) better than a team with very good (but not superstar) players throughout (think: early 2000s Pistons)?
Personally (and because I’m a homer), I tend to lean towards to think the latter is better…especially now that I’ve seen how were were able to get a solid PG in Bibby for almost nothing (talk to me pre-Bibby era…and I would have said there’s no way to get a PG except through the draft and would have said that we missed our chance). I just don’t think a team of JJ, CP3, Chill, Smoove, and Zaza (my Alternative Hawks lineup) wins a series against the frontcourts of current Orlando or Boston teams (in fact, the more I think about it…this sounds like a somewhat better Raptors-type of team). On the other hand, as we’ve seen this season, I think the depth of this current team at every position gives us a chance against those teams. But, I think we’ll find out later in the playoffs this season if the lack of a superstar will cost us.
Love this topic
I don't think that's the lineup though...
who do we get on the wings to complement our new PG, and what bigs do we acquire? Do we go for a shooter, like Peja or maybe Jason Kapono or Kyle Korver? Do we go hard for Ben Wallace when he signed with the Bulls, or Dampier, or maybe Mutumbo to be a defensive big? Maybe we draft Jevale McGee and he pans out for us, or who knows.
I applaud the effort, but there is just too much unknown and a completely different dynamic on the roster. From the players, to the system we run (Iso Joe or Iso Paul), to everything, especially if he has the impact he’s capable of and takes us to the 8th seed his rookie year.
What if CP3 were not a Hornet?
If the team before the Hawks in that draft or the team after the Hornets had taken him, would that team be better today? Would Paul had an opportunity to succeed as he has?
The landscape of the draft would of changed dramatically had this happened. Along with roster movement of different teams, the Hawks would probably be unrecognizable today, had they drafted Chris Paul. Who knows where players may have ended up as the talent we know of, wound up on another team.
You see, Fate is somthing that happens After it occurs. You can’t plan it. You can’t make it. It’s the train wrecks we have in life, and the unbelievable luck of buying the right lottery ticket at the right time. So the old saying applies: “Be careful of what you Thought you wished for.”
" MR.24 "
There is only one problem with these theories and postulations.... !!!!
There is only one problem with these theories and postulations…. !!! The determining factor is whether the HEAD coach would be willing to alter his coaching philosophy to better utilize a point gaurd as the primary offensive weapon. ISO is not what a PG should do with the dribble. A point guard should a) use the dribble to break down the defense and b) distribute the ball accordingly. The JOE ISO is not used in that fashion. Therefore, the question is " Even with the acquisition of CP3 instead of Marvin Williams, does the offensive scheme change to better utilize the PG position?"
All posts and replies to this topic since that draft has effectively alienated the MAIN issue and assumed that the offensive scheme would change with CP3 at the helm. BUT would it?
Honestly, with the same offensive philosophy from the HEAD coach, I believe the effects of change would be minimal at best!

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