Peachtree Hoops: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
New Blog: Once A Metro covering Red Bull New York!

The impact of Jamal Crawford

Photo

More photos » Mark J. Terrill - AP

The Hawks have the best record in the Eastern Conference, and are on top of most of the power rankings, and have generally beaten up on some very tough opponents.  The front court is playing as well as anyone in the NBA, and is carrying this team to heights we haven't since the House of Mutombo was torn down.  However, I feel the timing is right to take a look at one of the bigger question marks coming into the season, new acquisition Jamal Crawford.

After starting out extremely hot, he's posted consecutive performances of 2-10 and 3-10 shooting.  And we knew this was coming-nobody expected that he was going to be the guy who put up 27 points against Portland on 16 shots and 9 free throws.  I feel better looking at his numbers now that he's had a few cold shooting nights to counteract his hot ones-he's bound to be streaky.  So what impact has this had on his overall effectiveness?  Well, so far, Jamal is still having a career year in a lot of respects.

Despite the fact that he hasn't yet found his rhythm from three, he's still posting a 44.5 FG%, good for a career high if we discount his injury shortened 01-02 season with the Bulls.  He's done this by making 55.8% of his 2 point attempts (75% on attempts in the immediate vicinity of the basket).  He's been getting some good looks driving off of the dribble and on the fastbreak.  This has also led to his drawing fouls at a higher rate, which can only be good for a career 84% foul shooter.  Overall, his efficiency numbers are great-his eFG% (49%) sits right below the league average (49.4%), and his TS% (56%) is above league average (53.7%), both of which are career highs.  And those of you who are fans of PER, he's posting a very respectable 17.4, also a career high.

After the jump, a look at usage.

Star-divide

The bulk of Crawford's minutes so far have been as part of a three guard unit involving Johnson and Bibby.  I can't give you an exact percentage because I don't have all the data, but it's at least 35% of his total minutes.  Most of those are with the starting five, in which he essentially replaces Marvin Williams and JJ plays at SF.  Despite some recent struggles this group has had facing a 2-3 zone, it remains the most effective 5 man unit the Hawks have employed (excepting the very limited Bibby/Johnson/Evans/Josh/Horford minutes), allowing .94 points per possession while scoring 1.41 points per possession.

Right now, it's unclear to me exactly why this combination is doing so well defensively.  Thus far, JJ's on/off data suggests he's been fairly pedestrian, and that Crawford has been rather poor (as expected).  Bibby's on/off data is over the top good-his defensive efficiency on the floor is 100.7, while the efficiency with Bibby off the floor is 115.6, for a differential of 14.9.  There is nothing in Mike Bibby's history to suggest this is remotely sustainable, and he's an aging smaller guard.  So far, it seems like a lot of minutes where Bibby is off the floor involve Maurice Evans and/or Jeff Teague, neither of which have played very well on defense in the early part of the season.  None of this explains why the three guard line-up is playing so well on defense while placing two poor defenders and a fairly average defender together, so for now, I'm expecting a regression unless an explanation is found.

Approximately 28% of Crawford's minutes are coming as a point guard.  He's only posting a PER of 12.6 in that role, with an EFG% of 46.1, and the Hawks have an efficiency differential of -5.3 during the minutes he's been playing at point guard.  Thus far, he's been much more effective, and the Hawks have been much better off, when utilizing him at the 2 guard-which is essentially what I predicted back when this trade was made.

I also was curious as to whether he's been effective during his minutes when he's not scoring-ie, does he provide anything off the bench besides scoring punch?-and here's a very simple view.  During the 8 efficient scoring games he's had (TS% greater than league average), he's added 26 assists (3.8 per36) and 16 rebounds (2.35 per36) in 245 minutes .  During the other four, he's had 7 assists (2.47 per36) and 6 rebounds (2.12 per36) in 102 minutes.  The Hawks are a combined +7 while he's on the floor in his "bad" games while being +68 with him on the floor in his "good" games.  Overall, when he's not scoring, he's not useless, but he's not doing a lot, either.

I was also interested in seeing if Woody is giving him the hook in games in which he's not shooting well.  Three of his longest stints have come against Portland, Sacramento, and Denver, where he's dropped 27, 26, and 25 points respectively.  Of course, he also played over 34 minutes while shooting blanks against Charlotte, and only got to play 28 minutes while he was shooting 50% against the Hornets (and hitting 3 of 8 3PAs).  So far, there's only a  very weak correlation (0.464) between his TS% (my preferred measure for scoring efficiency) and playing time, meaning Woodson hasn't been particularly quick to cut his minutes when he's been ineffective scoring the ball.

After 12 games, I'd say he's been basically as expected-providing scoring off the bench with the ability to create his own shot.  Placing him into an offense that's (surprisingly) functional and removing the responsibility of playing distributor have, thus far, made him a fairly efficient scorer, though it's still early.  He may not continue at this pace, but I suspect the talent around him will keep him from killing his efficiency by shooting 31 times on nights when he's ice cold (though his teammates may not be immune to this).  And certainly, his 25.5% from 3 should eventually regress toward his career average of 34.6%, which would give this offense an additional boost.

0 recs  |  Comment 23 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Not sure why you'd say that.

These stat-heavy posts always teach me a little something. I am not a stat guy because I focus on more of the intangible stuff. I like the different persprective.

by Duff_Man on Nov 20, 2009 8:29 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think numbers can help...

when you can’t watch. But I’ve seen enough games to not really rely on numbers for analysis.

Crawford has been great. He’s had nights where his Instant offense off the bench has been vital to wins. There’s been other nights his shot wasn’t falling, but his passing and ability to break down defenders opening space for others has been vital. He’s been a great bench piece.

If this roster can stay healthy and the bigs stay playing at or near their current level, this is going to be a fun season to watch.

by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 20, 2009 8:49 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

the only reason t his post is not deleted

is because it would delete the relevant comments under it.

by hawksdawgs on Nov 20, 2009 8:56 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

the jamal as point guard numbers are so strange to me.

crawford is obviously not a pg, but he seems like he could be a serviceable one.

i certainly he gets that he is better at the 2, but still kind of surprising considering how good he is/could be at passing. i guess with the ball starting in crawford’s hands the offense bogs down which should not be that surprising.

i wish teague was better at defense so we could see more teague/crawford combos, but i think the defensive liability is too great right now.

by hawksdawgs on Nov 20, 2009 9:00 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Teague is great one on one defending.

Or maybe it’s that “college defense” where it just looks like he’s being a harsh defender but really just moving his arms around a lot.

Jamal has been doing a lot of things right even when he isn’t on. Running the break, making good outlet passes. His game seems to be flourishing a bit…or at least being uncovered by being on a more complete team.

by Duff_Man on Nov 20, 2009 9:21 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He obviously carried us at Portland and

helped a lot at Boston among other good games, but I see the improvement of Al and MVP Josh Smith as the real underlying reason for our start.

Jamal’s stats don’t seem too much better than Flip Murray in the early going in my opinion. For example, Flip dropped 31 on Orlando albeit in a losing effort. Jamal has cooler shake/bake moves, but the name “Flip” is cooler than Jamal, so I say they offset.

But Jamal does bring intangibles like leadership too from being a league veteran.

by coachkcastellon on Nov 20, 2009 9:24 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I think it's the new dog in the neighborhood.

Back in the day when people had pets that they did’nt have to keep on a leash, or behind fences.(Yes….there was a time.) I discovered one day walking down my favorite street to the store. New people had moved into an empty house on that block, and they had a dog. To my surprise this dog barked at me from our first meeting, as if to say “Beat it kid! I dont like you!” This dog would never chase me, but after that day I would walk on the other side of the street to avoid him.

Sometimes he’d be there, other times not.(In the backyard maybe? In the house?) Regardless I would always cautiously look out for him. We never became friends, nor the people in that house.

Crawford is that new dog in the neighborhood without the leash, and teams dont know how navigate the Hawks block just yet. There’s a calm and confidence amoung Hawks players that the bird can keep soaring with whatever rotation is on the floor. JC brings the intangible of less stress on players to play other than team ball.

" MR.24 "

by ctu24 on Nov 20, 2009 10:23 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Jamal - give up the three. Ask Josh how to do it.

Where would these shots come from? How about cutting down on 3pt shots by Jamal. His 3pt percentage is .255. You know what his FG% would be if he like Josh gave up on the 3? .547 Crawford needs to do what he does best – a facilatator/.initiator/driver. Dosen’t seem to complicated to figure.

by RivBoatGambler on Nov 20, 2009 10:28 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

To some extent

he’s having some bad luck shooting the three. He’s attempted over 3000 attempts from three in his career and made about 34.6% of them. He’s been getting some open looks, too, and there’s some aspect of shooting a basketball that lends itself to streaks, and luck plays a part. The key for Jamal is that the defense respects his ability to score from the perimeter, whereas they never showed that respect to Josh, essentially daring him to take the open jumpers.

Perhaps Jamal shouldn’t be attempting over 4 3PAs per game given how cold his jumper has been, but he’s a good enough shooter that he needs to keep attempting them. Eventually, he’s going to have a night where he can’t miss and he threatens to drop 40.

by Bronn on Nov 20, 2009 11:52 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

i, for one, like finding ways the hawks are underperforming

it counter acts the other side that screams how most of these guys are over performing.

jamal sucking from three just made my day.

by hawksdawgs on Nov 20, 2009 11:53 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

good point...

Josh shot a 3, and his man was waiting inside for the rebound. Jamal Carnation shoots the 3, and his man is flying out to get a hand in the face. Different shot, especially with our new found love of attacking the glass.

by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 20, 2009 12:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

One thing I remember Knicks fans complaining about is him settling too much and not driving to the basket.

I, for one think he has shown a great driving ability in the transition game, but am more impressed with his ability to draw fouls (legit fouls, not Pierce or Hedo flop fouls) and drain mid-range 15 ft. baskets against the Celtics.

by coachkcastellon on Nov 20, 2009 1:03 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hawks are #1 till tonight, no one can take these hrs away from us.

The Hawks have the best record in the Eastern Conference, and are on top of most of the power rankings, and have generally beaten up on some very tough opponents.

Not just the eastern conference but the entire NBA. A win tonight turns hours into days for the NBA #1 Hawks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by RivBoatGambler on Nov 20, 2009 10:36 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I don't really dig

+/- and off/on or whatever, but Jamal passes the eye test for me. As long as we all remember there will be little to no consistency we’ll be fine. It will make those nights where he scores like an insane person that much better!

by Co Co on Nov 20, 2009 10:38 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

It's interesting that the TS% and playing time coorelation is that low

It’s not too low to mean nothing, but from watching it seems Woody has been decent at keeping Jamal off on bad nights. Of course, I am not one to think that through watching I can judge anywhere close to as effectively as stats. Though perhaps the difference hear is accounted for in the rest of Jamal’s game? For example, if he’s passing well and setting up the bigs (but not shooting well), Woody leaves him in and I think its a good move when i watch. Perhaps regress PER and minutes played? I doubt it’ll make a difference, but it could be interesting.

by eyy on Nov 20, 2009 10:51 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

It will grow a bit stronger as the sample size increases

assuming the trend remains the same. But of course, I do recall the Portland game where Crawford was subbed in during the third quarter, missed two open threes, turned the ball over twice, and still played over 10 minutes from the middle of the third to the fourth quarter. After that, he also plays essentially the last 2:41 of overtime, and accomplishes nothing until sinking the last two near-meaningless free throws.

It’s tough for Woodson to go completely away from Crawford because Evans hasn’t been playing very well to date, and he doesn’t yet have confidence in Jeff Teague, so the back-up guard options aren’t as certain as the back-ups in the frontcourt.

by Bronn on Nov 20, 2009 11:45 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It's also tough to go away from Crawford,...

because you never know when he’ll hit a hot flash.

by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 20, 2009 12:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Im not really into stats

But this was very interesting(headache) but interesting.

by Hawksgirl on Nov 20, 2009 12:26 PM EST via mobile reply actions   0 recs

Many thanks

Before long I’ll attempt to illustrate just how unique a season Josh is having, and I’ll try to make it a bit less dry.

I need to remember to do a better job explaining some of the numbers I’m using-I get used to them and throw them out casually, but a lot of people who read this blog may not be completely familiar with what True shooting % is, or what it is mean by “defensive efficiency.”

by Bronn on Nov 20, 2009 1:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Interesting that the best line-up features JJ at the 3. It’ has seemed for years that he was basically playing the 3, anyway. More of a point-forward than a shooting guard. That lineup must be incredibly difficult to guard.

by Vic De Zen on Nov 20, 2009 4:31 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to the SB Nation blog about the Atlanta Hawks.
Start posting about the Hawks »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

Connect_with_facebook

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Small
Playoffs are near!!!
Buzz_small
"Marvin in Motion", or "It's a lot like poetry."
Small
JOE FOR CHRIS
Small
Jamal Crawford - The Difference
Small
Just give me the W.
Josh_smith_on_em_small
Can We Really Land Big Z
Josh_smith_on_em_small
The Hawks Dilemma
Small
Offseason possibilities if we lose Joe Johnson.
Small
NBA TRADE
Lion_small
Jamal’s shoulder injury!!!!!

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

SBNation.com Recent Stories

Orlando Magic guard J.J. Redick (7) tries to get control of the ball as he is guarded by San Antonio Spurs guard Malik Hairston, left, guard Roger Mason, and center Ian Mahinmi (28), of France, during the second half of an NBA basketball game in Orlando, Fla., Wednesday, March 17, 2010. Orlando won 110-84. (AP Photo/John Raoux)

Magic Rout Spurs 110-84

BOSTON - MARCH 17:  Paul Pierce #34 of the Boston Celtics makes a move to the basket against Al Harrington #7 of the New York Knicks on March 17, 2010 at the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts.  (Photo by Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images)

Pierce Scores 29 In 24 Minutes, Celtics Beats Knicks 109-97

Cleveland Cavaliers' LeBron James (23) shoots over Indiana Pacers' Brandon Rush in the fourth quarter of an NBA basketball game Wednesday, March 17, 2010, in Cleveland. James scored 32 points in the Cavaliers' 99-94 win that clinched the Central division title. (AP Photo/Mark Duncan)

LeBron's Near Triple-Double Lifts Cavs Over Pacers, 99-94

More from SBNation.com >


Managers

Zaza_pachulia_small hawksdawgs

Nique_small The Human Highlight Blog

Authors

Superman_small Bronn