Taking an early look at the five stat benchmarks for the Hawks and the third seed.
Back in September, we looked at five numbers the Hawks needed to meet to contend for the third seed. Eleven games in, consider the team contending. So lets look back at those benchmarks.
20x2: That was two players with a 20 PER or higher. I assumed Joe Johnson and Josh Smith were the most likely candidates since they had been the closest in previous years. Well, Al Horford says shame on me. He stands at 20.15 in this young season. Josh Smith, as we all know, now hates "bad Josh" and therefore, he has a PER of 25.24 which is good for tenth in the league. Joe Johnson sits just outside the threshold at 19.71. Basically, the Hawks starting front court is good. Really, really good.
14x10: Al Horford staying consistent on the glass and picking up a few extra buckets a game on offense. So far, he is a half point off at 13.5 points and 10.2 boards.
3.06: Mike Bibby was eighth in the league in assist to turnover ratio last year at 3.06. The low turnover rate for the team helped fuel their success. Could Bibby match this number in another season? Well, through eleven games, Mike is exactly 3.06 assists per turnover. I will just assume he read the last post.
15: Atlanta needed to move from bad to at least average in rebounding. Say 23rd in the league to 15th. As of now, the Hawks are 10th, and one could argue they have won three games (Celtics and both Blazer games) because of their rebounding. Kind of nice.
41.6%: That was Jamal Crawford's career best field goal percentage, and it happened the one season he played mostly as a sixth man. Possibly the early season stat that could fluctuate the most, but right now, Crawford is shooting 45.6%.
So with all five benchmarks at least within reach, which one do you think is most important to keep up? Have another one we should add? I know it sounds weird, but it really might be all about ball bearings numbers these days.
Go Hawks!
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Rebounding!
They need to continue to rebound and defend as if winning games is directly related to them doing so……….because it is. :)
I think it is Crawford's shooting %
He had his first really poor game against Portland, and I thought that and some horrific officiating kept the Hawks from running out to a 7-10 point lead in the first half.
I think all the rest of the stats are going to be there, or close, but for the Hawks to continue to play at an elite level, they need Crawford to continue to be an efficient closer.
The other thing we saw against Portland is that when Crawford is not shooting well, he cannot be in the game. With Marvin’s lost offense, not having Crawford down the stretch to make the defense honest will force Joe to do what he did too many times. We need Joe playing less minutes now, so he will be fresh for the playoffs.
What we really need
If JJ is not hot in the first half he needs to be yanked. If other players come up short – then thats life. At least for one half he should be treated like anyone else.
by RivBoatGambler on Nov 18, 2009 5:32 PM EST up reply actions
naturally
but i am inclined to think two players with a PER of 20 and jamal’s shooting percentage might stand above the rest.
but then again, i am quickly falling in love with rebounding.
these benchmarks are such temptresses.
A lot of it is interconnected though...
with Horford and Smoove rebounding this well, they make for high PER players. As they produce, Joe naturally stays around that level giving us 3 up there.
As those three play well, Bibby can stay efficient, keeping his a:to rate up, and Crawford doesn’t have to force shots with the other weapons we have around allowing his shooting % to stay up.
Basically, as our big men keeping play as well, and in the junk rebounding, defense, garbage buckets and knocking down the open shots or aggressively attacking the rim when the defense opens up, that allows our group of talented perimeter players to do what they do and also be selective doing so with that level of ability inside. Add in Marvin giving his regular 100% effort and strong D, and it further frees up the Gs. So maintain the 14×10, with Josh playing at a 25 or better, and the rest will almost naturally follow.
stay healthy,...
with Smoove and Horfina giving a combined 20+, 20+ with great defense and passing, do you expect any less from Crawford, Bibby and Johnson if as said above, they are healthy and those two are playing like they have for the first dozen games?
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 18, 2009 12:11 PM EST up reply actions
Has been and will always be. Great jump shooters can win a a few ball games with their heroics but
to be contenders the ball has to be competive in the front court.. We still don’t respect our young front court. They are not only improved but butt kicking. Did I mention ZaZa as well? Would still like to see a three big line up. ZaZa,Al and Josh together with Crawford and JT. Just once? Please?
We could still push the ball and fast break and our inside D would be tough.
by RivBoatGambler on Nov 18, 2009 5:39 PM EST up reply actions
Still don't get PER
You know how I feel about PER and +/- or whatever. I don’t understand it. That being said, I decided prior to the season that I’m not going to get overly emotional about Jamal’s bad games because if you know anything about Jamal’s career you know that he’s either on or off. I think we should all acknowledge and accept that so that we don’t go insane when he scores 25 one night then 9 the next night. Its just who he is.
for me its rebounding
But i am starting to notice that each key player gives the team something important on any given night. marvs defense, bibbys t.o. ratio, jamals ability to score on any and everyone, of course al’s and smooth’s ability to rebound hard and make the paint a dangerous place for opposing teams on both sides of the court. zaza is always zaza which means he comes in and gives whats needed whether it is a bucket or a steal. Its hard to say which stat is more important. and I probably wont be able to til 25 games
by Hawksgirl on Nov 18, 2009 9:06 AM EST via mobile reply actions
12....
As in healthy players. That number gets low, and all other numbers follows. It means that hits has been taken by starters or rotational subs.
How often last year was 12 healthy on gameday. Someone crunch those numbers for me. Not saying a replacement cant come in and improve or balance a stat or two, but there will be drawbacks.
As my man “Hubie Brown” might say….“I mean, come on. This is the NBA. You need healthy players on your roster. Ha!”
" MR.24 "
73.7% vs 79.4%
Hawks FT percentage last year versus this year. Outside of Josh (who seems more relaxed at the line), the team seems to be making them more. This was always my big pet peeve. Even Zaza is shooting 81%. Nice improvement.
Road wins
The missing number is road wins. The Hawks figure to win in the mid to high 30s in home games. It’s wins on the road that will determine whether they stay at 4th or move up. So far, so good.
Front court play...
Al’s consistency and Smoove’s awesomeness have fueled the hot start. I agree that rebounding has been a deciding factor in several games. I’ll be interested to see how we do against much bigger front lines like that of Cleveland and Orlando. We outworked Perkins and KG pretty handily, which bodes well.
In the back court, turnovers. Not just Bibby’s great ratio, but Crawford and Teague need to take care of the ball when they are in.
So excited about this hot start and can’t wait for them to get up here to DC and crush the Wiz.
Marvin needs to have an epiphany
And Woodson continue to keep the deep rotation most nights to avoid any injuries.
One of the reasons for our success that you don’t see on the box score is how healthy our team has been so far. We won’t drop lousy back-to-back losses to the Nets if Josh is healthy, for example. I would also argue that is how we are in front of Orlando (Jameer gone, VC ankle, and Reshard suspended), Cleveland (Delonte being clinically psycho), and Boston (fat baby and Pierce).
by coachkcastellon on Nov 18, 2009 11:42 AM EST reply actions
Health..
We kinda have to hope that Horford (our most irreplaceable guy) and Smith don’t miss major time. Last year those two combined to miss 20+ games. Keeping that number to 10 will go along way towards getting us the 10 extra wins needed to get a top-3 seed from where they finished last year..
The nice thing about the Hawks this year is that, with how Crawford has played, you aren’t extremely fearful of Bibby, Williams, or Johnson missing time. Furthermore, You know Pachulia can step up in big minutes if a front court player went down..
PER
I don’t like PER but here’s the link. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Player_Efficiency_Rating
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
This is old news...
but interesting. Sheed credits the hawks for using the iso. This was me wondering in the green world known as celticsblog. http://www.celticsblog.com/2009/11/14/1156743/celtics-outrebounded-outplayed-in
Atlanta will win a championship....someday
Starts and ends with rebounding to me. The Hawks are best when they run, and they can only run if they control the boards and force turnovers. Everything else feeds off of that.
by Najeh Davenpoop on Nov 19, 2009 12:09 AM EST reply actions

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