A rousing decent to pessimism or why I am guilty of too much optimism
Previews are all for pointless fun. So responding to previews probably is less fun and more pointless, but I would be remiss not to add Hoopinion's excellent preview to the list I just put together.
And doing so, I cannot help but add a critique, poke, nudge, prod because, well, the thing is so darn pessimistic. It is hurting my feelings. The final outcome is not mind you. With a retooled east from top to bottom and the big three showing no signs of letting up, 44 wins is entirely possible, realistic even. That could even be good enough for the fourth seed next year.
It should just be noted that pessimism is not realism. It is the opposite of optimism. In all things not Woodson, I tend to stay firmly in half glass full camp. Probably too much so so it does not make my preview better, just happier.
However, Bret does the same thing I do. Ignore some of the facts that don't work for the point. I refuse to look at how last years excellent three point shooting might decline this year. It might. If I am being honest, I should probably put a probably next to that might. I don't examine how a non-superstar team with this makeup has certain humps they probably just cannot overcome.
But if we are going to look at trends and probabilities, Josh Smith should have a better season rebounding and blocking shots. Marvin Williams has improved every year and is historically entering the prime of his career. For Al Horford, the third year is the "get it year" for many players, and big men often develop at a slower rate. Bibby should regress, but he is so bad at things that deteriorate with age already, I struggle to see how the drop will be that big this year. If Joe gets rest, can we expect him to bypass the midseason and postseason slump? What if Jamal Crawford thrives in his 6th man role? Coming off the bench has produced his best stats so far in his career. And of course, it is a Hawks preview so it is a place to question the Hawks health and not other teams, but I put my money on Atlanta's players staying healthy over say Washington or Boston. And if we are going to preview a team based on possible health concerns should we add wins for questions with other teams?
Really, what are blogs but voices? And I should be clear this is not one that is shouting or angry. I think Bret is the best of the best when it comes to Hawks writing. So I just want a little more hope in there that's all. Some of that good projected analysis if the Hawks surprise him again. He probably would just tell me to stop writing sugary sweet pieces first, and I should. The season always does bring out my inner-pessimist. So maybe I will. Regardless, we will certainly argue our points over a beer sometime this season as we did last year.
In the end, it is good to have many voices. But vacuums are bad. If we stayed in them, we would just wallow in our own view points. Sometimes we need a poke here and a poke there. As I wrote this post, I added the second part of its title because all those reasons to be excited might have gone to my head. The season is beginning. I may have needed a poke myself.
And what I hope is this is a blog of good spirited poking and jostling. Agreement is refreshing. Total agreement is horribly boring. We are here to root on the Hawks, but we are also here to disagree. That is what fanposts are for. That is why blogs have comments. And that is why most blog posts are responses to other blog post. In large part, it is what makes sports fun.
In spite of it all, reality is coming. I hope I get to tell Hoopinion "I told you so" in a 6,000 word magnum opus come May. But as the season moves along, I will try to be a little more fair, a tad more honest as we journey through the Hawks together. And it is good to have the Hawks blogosphere around to keep me to that.
Except for Zaza, I will probably not be fair or honest with Zaza.
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Comments
Brett and all the other pessimists make a lot of good points. I just can’t wrap my head around the idea that the Hawks will have a better roster than last year but yet should win fewer games. Definitely I don’t see the Hawks winning anything close to 60 games or making a serious push for the 3rd or higher seed (barring major injury to last year’s top 3). I guess I’m just expecting the few additional losses to the likes of Washington and Toronto to be balanced out and then some by a few more wins against winning teams at home and bad teams on the road.
I read Hoopinion a lot.
I like the way he uses numbers and stats. The only real issue I have is that it is a little too dry at times. Almost robotic. But I think that’s kind of what he’s going for. I love it for its informational in informed breakdowns, but it doesn’t fit my personality well, and I am selfish so that turns me off. That said, it will always be a daily read for me because it helps me understand the game better.
I like it here because of the wit, banter, and buddy-buddy vibe we seem to get. Every fan should be optimistic at the start of a season. We interact more like fans who sit together in a season ticket section. We share laughs, beers, and an overall bright outlook.
I am the type of fan who gets very excited for wins, but could care less about losses. Yeah, it sucks to lose, but stressing over it isn’t the way to go through life. That’s a big reason why I am drawn to this site. Less doom and gloom, and more bright side. It helps make the season more fun and easier to take the rough patches.
You want to see what I am talking about, then hit the Falcons Message Board today.
optimism
On our way to 50-54 wins our improvement will show in the form of wins from teams that are not as good or close to our skill level. Orlando is clearly better. So are Boston and Cleveland.
Here are a few teams we can do better against and improve from last years win total. Nets, Pacers, Bucks, 76ers, Clippers, Bobcats, Grizzlies.
Here are a few teams we almost always lost to but are now within reach. Rockets, Suns, Jazz, Hornets,
All of these teams represent losses or multiple losses last year. We don’t have to beat the best teams to improve our record. As we win these games maybe we will close the gap on the best. Optimism gets burn in this house.
We certainly won’t be losing 3 out of 4 from the nets this year w/o Carter, but teams we swept like the pistons, bulls, and toronto will be tougher. But I think the rockets, suns, and hornets all will be worse this year.
by coachkcastellon on Oct 26, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions
it was the clips for me
"This is America, if we can’t self-righteously look down on others and blame them for our faults, the commies win."-----Cormican on Bleeding Green Nation w/r/t fans overreacting to the Eagles signing of Michael Vick
I'm partial to both
I’m not even sure how this works, so don’t ask, but I like it all. I share a lot of the same opinions that Bret has and a lot that Drew has. I understand why one would say that the overall tone or feel of Bret’s is pessimistic, I also understand what his points are. I think a lot of people mistake crticism for bashing when really, most of what Bret puts forth is simple unbiased reality (which I believe is the point of his writing, an unbiased opinion almost from an outsiders point of view).
Personally, I have never been able to sustain the same level of optimism for the Hawks that I have for the Falcons. Maybe it’s because the Vick era gave me more hope than I ever thought was possible for the Hawks. Or maybe it’s because the last time the Hawks were remotely decent I was in the Marines wishing I were still in Atlanta watching them play. But I will say that a lot of why I don’t think the Hawks can improve on last year’s performance is because of coaching. I don’t think Woodson (or in the least his system) is right for the players we have and there is no evidence that he is willing to change for the sake of the team.
That doesn’t mean that I don’t think we will win 45 or so games and still hold onto the 4th seed. I don’t see the rest of the east improving that much. Really, I don’t think that’s the real issue at all, but instead that this team isn’t doing much of anything to close the gap between us and the big three. As such, I think that the intent is to see if Woodson really can progress this team then try to make a move to get over the hump.
Plus, being content with the fourth seed and getting swept in the second round isn’t my cup of tea.
"This is America, if we can’t self-righteously look down on others and blame them for our faults, the commies win."-----Cormican on Bleeding Green Nation w/r/t fans overreacting to the Eagles signing of Michael Vick

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