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What are we seeing?

The Atlanta Hawks have won two games, on the road, against teams that won a combined 108 games last year. They've gotten out to a much better start than I anticipated or even hoped for.  They've done it different ways-they pretty much led Orlando wire-to-wire, they trailed big to Philadelphia and came back, and then jumped out to a huge lead on the Hornets before letting them come back, and then pulling ahead in the fourth quarter.

 

Star-divide

What are we seeing, exactly?  I know that this is an extremely small sample size, and that teams will go on stretches like this (and it's always overblown when a team starts a season hot, as opposed to going on a streak two months into the season).  Yet I still feel that I need to acknowledge that what I'm seeing is not at all what I expected.  Let me attempt to list the factors that have led to the good start.

First, team defense has been outstanding.  Holding New Orleans to 79 points after they had averaged 106.7 through their first three games speaks volumes.  In particular, Josh Smith is simply playing outstanding on the defensive end.  Two years ago, the take on Josh Smith was that he is a great help side defender but less than stellar man to man.  Against David West, who was an all-star last season and is one of the better forward in the NBA, he was absolutely shut-down.  West finished with 15 points, but several of those occured after a switch had West matched up against Joe Johnson or even Mike Bibby.  Josh Smith did this while playing his usual help-side defense, made a great transition block on Stojakovich, and grabbed a couple of errant passes as well.  He may be on the verge of becoming a serious contender for defensive player of the year (many thanks to Scoop Jackson).

The bench play has been sporadic through three games, which is pretty much as expected.  Zaza Pachulia is coming out with plenty of energy and has provided solid defense and rebounding, which is exactly what every team wants in a back-up center.  Flip Murray has shown the ability to score, inefficiently, with occasional standout performances like he had against New Orleans.  Those only the only two noteworthy bench performers to date for the Hawks, despite the fact that Woodson is running about 9 deep with his rotation.

The biggest mystery to me, right now, is what exactly transpired in the second half in New Orleans.  At halftime, Chris Paul was a perfect 7-7 from the field, and had been to the line 5 times.  He had 19 points, and was pretty much doing what he's done to Atlanta ever since he was drafted-demonstrate that he's the best point guard in the NBA.  In the second half, Chris Paul shot 1-8 and did not get to the free throw line, managing only three points (through with 8 assists).

Of course some of his shots were out of rhythm, and he had some perplexing misses but...is it possible-and I can't believe I'm saying this-that Mike Woodson made some manner of half-time adjustment?

This might be historic.  If memory serves, we occasionally saw Josh Smith help out on Chris Paul in the second half.  And the Hawks' fontcourt was doing a much better job of getting back on defense to prevent Chris Paul from getting easy buckets in the paint.  And there was a bit of zone defense thrown in there, if I'm not mistaken (which occasionally resulted in David West simply backing down Joe Johnson and/or Flip Murray).

Perhaps this Hawks defense is something that's here to stay.

A FanPost expresses the opinion of the community member who wrote it and not that of the blog management.

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Defense

Even though it is very early you can already see huge improvements from this defense.

While they didnt make a huge splash in the off season I think we are going to see a huge payoff from signing Flip and Mo Evans

by Max5 on Nov 6, 2008 8:30 AM EST reply actions  

It’s early, but Murray and Evans have the team’s worst on-court defensive ratings thus far.

The numbers and my eyes agree on the fact that Josh Smith appears to have turned into a brilliant defensive player.

by Hoopinion on Nov 6, 2008 10:20 AM EST up reply actions  

I laughed along with everyone else when I saw Scoop Jackson’s prediction that Josh Smith would be DPotY, But smooth is making him look like a genius (not an easy feet).

Flip Murry’s sole purpose on this team is to make it hard to double Joe Johnson. Joe is a good enough passer that both guards are on him, murry is gonna get a wide open driving lane.

I honestly won’t trust this team until i see them blow out some bad teams. the hawks problems in recent years have been that they play good teams tough, but then lose to bad teams because they don’t take them seriously.

by thirdfALCON on Nov 6, 2008 3:34 PM EST reply actions  

got to stop looking at all of these rating scales

These rating scales that people have come up with are great mathematical tools, but as we saw with the economy all of these stellar ratings mean nothing when you are dealing with on the court performance.

The Hawks are playing great team defense no matter who is on the court. It is an attitude change they are being pushed around anymore they are pushing and fighting for every possession as a team effort.

Flip Murray is exactly who should be someone who is going to attack the basket and make his own shot and thats why when we signed him I knew loosing Josh Childress wouldn’t matter. Especially when he is replaced by someone just as athletic with better range and more experience in Mo Evans.

by RealSquawk on Nov 6, 2008 8:10 PM EST reply actions  

Actually, the on/off efficiency numbers are always very telling, when you know how to examine them. It gives you a good idea of what’s going on with players in a team perspective.

Unfortunately, 3 games is far too small of a sample size to really draw any conclusions. Otherwise we might think that Mario West was the MVP-in-waiting.

What’s great about basketballvalue.com is that you can see how often different units are used together, as well as the individual breakdown of player/unit performances. The weakness of the on/off efficiency rating is that they can only be applied according to a team perspective. Say, if you have TJ Ford backing up Jose Calderon, his on/off court impact won’t be as impressive as it is when he’s backed up by Roko Ukic.

by Bronn on Nov 7, 2008 2:01 AM EST up reply actions  

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