Looking Forward/Looking Back

by Hoopinion on Nov 25, 2008 4:35 PM EST Comment 1 comment

You can as much or as little as you wish from this comparison between team stats from 100% of last season's and team stats from 15.85% of this season's games.

all stats from Knickerblogger.net

PACE

Season	Poss	Rank
2007-08	91.1	18th
2008-09	90.5	22nd

2007-08 TEAM OFFENSE

	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
	106.9	48.3	26.2	29.7	16.2
Rank	16th	21st	6th	4th	26th

2008-09 TEAM OFFENSE

	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
	108.9	50.2	23	28.4	15.1
Rank	6th	T-8th	19th	9th	13th

Last year the Hawks were good at getting to the free throw line and rebounding their (frequent) own missed shots. This year, the aren't getting to the line/making free throws* nearly as often or grabbing offensive rebounds as often (though they're still in the top third of the league in that regard) but their much improved offensively because they're attempting more three-point shots and making a higher percentage of their shots from beyond the arc.

*07-08 FT%: 77.2

08-09 FT%: 73.3

FIELD GOAL SHOOTING

Season	2PT%	3PT%
2007-08	47.3	35.6
2008-09	45.1	42.7

The Hawks are actually shooting much worse on two-point attempts (This may be a concern as their three-point percentage inevitably declines.) this season but that's more than made for by attempting more than 21 three-point shots a game and making almost 43% of those threes.

3PT FIELD GOAL ATTEMPTS

Season	3PTA/G	3PTA/2PTA
2007-08	13.1	16.4%
2008-09	21.6	27.1%

2007-08 TEAM DEFENSE

	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
	108.9	50.1	21.7	28.3	14.9
Rank	18th	15th	13th	26th	15th

2008-09 TEAM DEFENSE

	Off Eff	eFG%	FT Rate	OR%	TO%
	107.7	48.4	23.3	28.4	15.3
Rank	25th	14th	13th	21st	18th

The opponents' eFG% and FT Rate should go down some once Josh Smith returns and their TO% should go up. Josh Smith makes it difficult to make shots, he creates turnovers, and he doesn't foul as often a the guys who have taken his minutes, be it Zaza Pachulia, Solomon Jones, Randolph Morris, or whoever's taking a turn as an undersized power forward. He probably won't make much of a difference on the defensive glass. The Hawks just aren't a very good defensive rebounding team.

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The stats show that this team is similar to last year after the Bibby trade Our offense went up, and our defense went down, So we only maintained the same level of play, despite a pretty drastic style change (for a mid-season transformation that is)

If you believe the recent sekou story about an anonymous scout that states that josh smith covers for his teammates on defense, and makes high effort defensive players more valuble, then our defense should improve when Smith returns. To expect them to play at the level that they did at the start of the season is probably unreasonable.

The 3-point shooting should also level off a bit (especially Marvin). If everything goes right for the Hawks, they might win 50 games. But it’s more likely that they will win around 45.

by thirdfALCON on Nov 25, 2008 5:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs